Statement of reasons—Expiry review determination: Hot-rolled carbon steel plate 5 (PLA5 2024 ER)

Product definition

[28] The goods subject to this expiry review investigation are defined as:

Additional product information

[29] ASTM standards, such as A6/A6M and A20/A20M, recognize permissible variations for dimensions.

[30] It should be noted that the metric equivalent dimensions in the definition of the subject goods are rounded numbers as indicated the "+/-" symbols.

[31] Plate is manufactured to Canadian Standards Association (CSA), ASTM or other recognized specifications with the result that the products of any manufacturer, whether domestic or foreign, are interchangeable in any application. Therefore, price is the most significant factor in choosing a source of supply. The most common specification for plate in Canada is CSA G40.21 300W/44W.

Algoma Steel Inc.

[37] Algoma is a primary iron and steel producer. It has a present capacity to produce approximately 3.7 million metric tonnes of raw steel and approximately 3.4 million metric tonnes of finished steel annually. In 2022, Algoma completed Phase 1 of the Plate Mill Modernization project and will complete Phase 2 in 2024. The Plate Mill Modernization project will increase Algoma's production capacity and improve the quality of the plate produced.

[38] The Algoma Steel Corporation, Limited was originally established in 1901. On June 1, 1992, Algoma became an incorporated company, carrying on the business activities of its predecessor. On January 29, 2002, the company was re-organized under a Plan of Arrangement and Reorganization pursuant to the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA). The company became part of Essar Steel Holdings Limited in June 2007. On May 8, 2008, the company name was changed to Essar Steel Algoma Inc.

[39] Essar Steel Algoma Inc. commenced court-supervised restructuring proceedings under the CCAA on November 9, 2015. On November 30, 2018, a group of creditors purchased the company's assets, with the company emerging from CCAA protection as “Algoma Steel Inc.”

[40] On May 24, 2021, Algoma announced that it had entered into a merger agreement with Legato Merger Corp., that would result in Algoma becoming a publicly listed company with its common shares traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market. On October 21, 2021, Algoma became public and common shares began trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market and the Toronto Stock Exchange.^{Footnote 15}

Evraz Inc. NA Canada

[41] Evraz produces steel plates, steel sheets, as well as energy and non-energy tubular products, and processes coils in four locations in Canada. Evraz's manufacturing facilities in Calgary, Red Deer, and Camrose, Alberta produce tubular products. Evraz's Regina facility is the largest steel industrial complex in Western Canada; it produces steel plates, steel sheets, and tubular products. Evraz only produces steel plate at its Regina facility.

[42] Evraz's facility in Regina was formerly known as IPSCO Inc. (“IPSCO”), which was incorporated in 1956 under the name of Prairie Pipe Manufacturing Co. Ltd. It commenced operations in 1957 with the completion of an electric resistance weld pipe mill in Regina. In 1959, the company acquired assets of Interprovincial Steel Corp. Ltd. and began production of flat rolled steel in 1960, including the subject goods. Since then, the company expanded its manufacturing capabilities and established scrap companies in Canada as well as in the United States through acquisitions and plant constructions.

[43] On July 17, 2007, SSAB, a wholly owned subsidiary of SSAB Svenkst Stahl of Sweden, acquired IPSCO and its subsidiaries through a 100-percent share acquisition. Under SSAB's direction, IPSCO was reorganized to own only the Regina facility and the facilities in Calgary, Camrose, Red Deer, and the formerly owned facility in Surrey including through a wholly owned subsidiary IPSCO Canada Inc.

[44] On June 12, 2008, Evraz Group S.A., now a wholly owned subsidiary of Evraz plc., acquired IPSCO and its subsidiaries from SSAB through a share acquisition.

[45] On October 15, 2008, the names of IPSCO and IPSCO Canada Inc. were changed to Evraz Canada and Evraz Inc. NA Canada West respectively. On January 1, 2009, Evraz Inc. NA Canada West was amalgamated into Evraz Canada.

[46] On December 13, 2013, Evraz sold its entire cut-to-length plate facility in Surrey, British Columbia to Samuel, Son & Co.

[47] On June 27, 2014, Evraz sold its cut-to-length line and the associated assets thereof, located in Regina, Saskatchewan, to Varsteel. Evraz retained its discrete plate production line in Regina.^{Footnote 16}

Steel service centres

[48] Although steel service centres’ production processes differ to some extent from those of Algoma and Evraz, steel service centres produce and sell the same products in the Canadian market, to the same end-users, for essentially the same applications.^{Footnote 17} Therefore, the Canadian industry for certain hot-rolled steel plate production is also comprised of the following steel service centres:

• Acier Nova Inc.
• Coilex Inc.
• Janco Steel
• Métal Pless
• Russel Metals Ltd.
• Samuel, Son & Co., Limited
• SSAB Central Inc.

Administrative record

[62] The information considered by the CBSA for purposes of this expiry review investigation is contained in the administrative record. The administrative record includes the information on the CBSA's exhibit listing, which is comprised of the CBSA exhibits and information submitted by interested parties, including information which the interested parties feel is relevant to the decision as to whether dumping is likely to continue or resume absent the CITT finding. This information may consist of expert analysts’ reports, excerpts from trade publications and news articles, orders and findings issued by authorities of Canada or of a country other than Canada, documents from international trade organizations such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) and responses to the ERQs submitted by Canadian producers, exporters and importers.

[63] For purposes of an expiry review investigation, the CBSA sets a date after which no new information submitted by interested parties will be placed on the administrative record or considered as part of the CBSA's investigation. This is referred to as the “closing of the record date” and is set to allow participants time to prepare their case briefs and reply submissions based on the information that is on the administrative record as of the closing of the record date. For this investigation, the administrative record closed on November 27, 2024.

Parties contending that continued or resumed dumping is likely

Algoma

[64] Algoma, a Canadian producer, made representations in its case brief supporting its position that dumping from Bulgaria, Czechia and Romania is likely to continue or resume in the event the present order is rescinded. Therefore, Algoma argued that the measures should remain in place.

[65] The main factors identified by Algoma can be summarized as follows:

• COVID-19 and the international marketplace for plate
• International steel market conditions
• Conditions in the subject countries
• Canadian market conditions
• Low-priced competition from other import sources

COVID-19 and the international marketplace for plate

[66] Algoma noted that in assessing the evidence and applying the factors of SIMR, the CBSA should be cognizant of the effects of COVID-19 pandemic (COVID-19) had on plate markets over the POR. Algoma summarized the most relevant effects of COVID-19 for the purpose of this proceeding into two factors.

[67] First, COVID-19 caused significant price volatility in plate markets around the world. Algoma contended that prices in North America dropped to a low in August 2020 following the onset of the pandemic in Q1-Q2 2020, but then rose in every subsequent quarter through the end of 2021. It was noted by Algoma that this was a global trend and each market tracked by steel pricing publisher MEPS International showed substantial increases as of the fourth quarter of 2020 and through at least the second quarter of 2022. Algoma stated that the run-up in pricing after the initial COVID-19-driven downturn led to record high steel prices which have since moderated and are well below peak 2021/2022 levels.^{Footnote 22}

[68] Secondly, COVID-19 caused widespread supply shortages across the global economy in 2021 as demand recovered. Algoma submitted that during the initial COVID-19 lockdowns, many producers emptied their steel stocks and idled production capacities. When demand recovered, supply chains were unprepared to meet the demand. The stress on supply coupled with the global shortage in shipping containers, lead to a spike in plate prices in late 2021, early 2022.^{Footnote 23}

International market conditions

[69] Algoma submitted that the international market conditions provide important context for macro-economic trends effecting plate. Specifically, it was argued that several global developments are currently affecting the market for plate which would make the Canadian domestic industry susceptible to resumed dumping if the order is rescinded. These developments are further explained below.

Excess global steelmaking capacity

[70] Algoma stated that the global capacity continues to expand at a vigorous pace despite a weak outlook for steel demand and the global economy generally. At the October 2024 Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity (GFSEC) Ministerial Meeting at the OECD, ministers and high-level representatives from 27 countries expressed grave concerns about the worsening trend of global crude steel excess capacity and the detrimental effects on their steel industries. According to the Ministerial Meeting report, “global excess capacity may have resulted in the loss of 134,000 to 190,000 steel jobs in GFSEC member economies over the past decade.”^{Footnote 24}

[71] Algoma referenced several reports on current and projected global steelmaking capacity. According to the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), global steelmaking capacity increased by 2.3%, reaching 2.432 billion metric tons (MT) between 2018 and 2023. By 2023, global excess capacity surpassed global steel exports by nearly 80%, creating significant potential for export growth. Despite a 610 million MT gap between capacity and production in 2023, global capacity is expected to increase by an additional 158 million MT between 2024 and 2026.^{Footnote 25}

[72] Statements from the CITT in previous proceedings related to hot-rolled steel plate were cited as support for the effect that global overcapacity can have on trade, particularly the plate market. Previously, the CITT held that global excess capacity was directly linked to opportunistic dumping of plate in markets that can yield a higher price, in particular, the Canadian market.^{Footnote 26}

Weakening demand and volatile global economic conditions

[73] Algoma contended that adverse geopolitical factors and risks of inflation worldwide have increased in 2024, raising the prospects of sustained high interest rates and continued price destabilization. Furthermore, the escalation of trade tensions could further exacerbate these inflationary risks by increasing the cost of imported goods along the supply chain. Algoma cited information on the record regarding weak consumption trends over the past two years.^{Footnote 27}

Contracting demand in Europe

[74] Algoma submitted that the negative demand trends have been particularly acute in the European steel market, which is the broader home market for the subject countries. Following a significant demand recession in 2022, persistent downside factors, as mentioned above, has led to a 9% contraction in EU steel consumption in 2023.^{Footnote 28}

[75] In addition, it was argued that imports are exerting further pressure on Europe's steel producers. Algoma cited EUROFER's 2024 economic and steel market quarterly reports, which indicated that as a share of apparent consumption in the EU, total steel imports were “considerably high in historical terms” throughout 2023 and the first half of 2024. These imports rose to 27% in Q1 2024 and 28% in Q2 2024.^{Footnote 29}

Global plate market conditions

[76] Algoma argued that production and capacity growth in the global plate market has been comparable to the trends seen in steel market as a whole, while suffering from similarly weak, if not weaker, demand levels.

Capacity and production

[77] With respect to capacity and production, Algoma has filed on the record detailed capacity, production and demand data for steel plate as reported by CRU, a business intelligence company that provides analysis, news and data for metal markets. Algoma noted that CRU's figures likely underrepresent the true amount of global production capacity due to underreporting by China. However, based on CRU data, Algoma provided a table summarizing global production capacity on equipment that can be used to produce plate; the production volume from that equipment; and demand for the products produced on that equipment. In addition, the table highlighted excess capacity and capacity utilization on all equipment that can be used to produce plate.^{Footnote 30}

[78] Based on information presented in the Table 1 of Algoma's case brief, capacity on equipment that can be used to produce plate has increased consistently for the past four years. Despite calls for capacity reduction from the OECG and the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity (GFSEC), CRU forecasts steady capacity growth on equipment that can be used to produce plate through to 2027.^{Footnote 31}

[79] For reversing mills, Algoma provided evidence indicating that production from 2024 to 2026 is slated to grow by millions of MT while capacity will increase by a marginal amount comparatively. Algoma argues that the projected increase in reversing mill production in 2025 alone is greater that Canada's combined consumption of plate over the entire POR and Canada's market remains significantly exposed to the millions of tonnes of excess reversing mill plate production capacity that will remain through 2026.^{Footnote 32}

Pricing

[80] Algoma stated that plate prices rose dramatically in 2021 and 2022 following a downturn at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, but have declined since. Algoma provided CRU data for domestic transaction prices for steel plate in select markets to illustrate the global trend albeit varying fluctuations from market-to-market. The data indicates that through 2027, all markets listed are expected to have lower prices than in 2022 and that North American plate prices will remain substantially higher than prices in other regions.^{Footnote 33}

A plate demand crisis in China with global consequences

[81] Algoma contended that China's domestic plate market is in a state of crisis and given its share of global plate production, this translates to a global crisis. Algoma pointed to evidence that projects that plate demand in China will fall as much as 8% from 2024-2028. Algoma cited reports that Chinese steelmakers facing low domestic demand and declining profits are desperate to direct surpluses to unprotected export markets, and have already increased steel exports by 24% in the first half of 2024, compared to January-June 2023. It was argued that Chinese plate exports will mirror these trends.^{Footnote 34}

[82] Furthermore, Algoma asserted that China's excess capacity has mostly been directed to other Asian markets, which has created a ripple effect of export pressure on countries in the region, which in turn export their surpluses to the EU and North America.^{Footnote 35}

Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs

[83] Algoma presented in its case briefs the effects and potential future consequences due to the imposition of Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs. Algoma contended that the tariffs have dramatically impacted the US imports, production, and prices of steel products and it has had a cascading effect on steel markets globally, including in Canada, as steel products that would previously have been imported into the US must instead be diverted to other markets.^{Footnote 36}

[84] It was emphasized that Canada has also imposed a 25% surtax on imports of steel and aluminum products from China, further limiting China's export opportunities in North America. Algoma argued that the imposition of these extraordinary measures by the United States and Canada further demonstrates that global steel markets are in a state of unprecedented upheaval and uncertainly, and such conditions would put pressure on steel exporters, including those in the subject countries, to compete aggressively for market share anywhere they can.^{Footnote 37}

Conditions in the subject countries

Excess capacity and production trends

All subject countries

[85] Algoma asserted that the subject countries have significant and persistent excess capacity on equipment that can be used to produce plate. In support of this position, Algoma cited multiple reports indicating that subject countries have significant excess capacity with a capacity utilization rate in the range of 33% - 51% between 2020 and 2027.^{Footnote 38}

Czech Republic

[86] In terms of the overall utilization rate in Czechia, Algoma cited evidence on the record that the country has consistently maintained a capacity utilization rate under 50% since 2020, and contended that the country has been unable to increase its production to sustainable levels over that period. Further, Czechia's capacity utilization rate is expected to decline further from 2024 levels between 2025-2027.^{Footnote 39}

[87] Algoma noted two producers in the subject country that have been facing difficult challenges during the POR with respect to mounting losses and deteriorating market conditions.

[88] First there is Liberty Steel's Ostrava plant, operating a steckel mill that represents more than half of Czechia's total capacity. Liberty Steel has idled its last operating blast furnace in October 2023 and initiated bankruptcy proceedings in Q1 2024. As of November 2024, Liberty Steel is still seeking a buyer for the plant. Algoma argued that:

[89] The second producer, Vítkovice Steel, is the largest reversing mill plate producer in Czechia. Algoma cited an article indicating that Vítkovice Steel in 2023 was profitable “after many years of losses”. Algoma contended that despite Vítkovice Steel's weak financial history, they have announced plans to expand the plant's production capacity of steel sheets which will further exacerbate overcapacity on equipment that can be used to produce plate in country.^{Footnote 41}

Romania

[90] Algoma cited information on the record regarding the decline in Romania's capacity utilization rates with respect to the production of plate since 2021, resulting in rates below 35% in 2023 and 2024.^{Footnote 42}

[91] Algoma noted that Liberty Galati (Romania's largest steel mill and sole active plate producer) was suspended twice in just the first six months of 2024 due to adverse market conditions. In both cases, operations resumed only after the Romanian Government promised support, including by providing extended guarantees for a €150 million loan. Algoma stated that:

[92] Furthermore, Algoma noted that despite Liberty Galati's struggles, Turkish investment company Ussuri Capital announced plans in March 2024 to build a new low-carbon flat-rolled steel plant in Romania. The plant will boast a continuous strip casting line with a capacity of 1.2 million tons of hot-rolled coil per year and is expected to be launched sometime between 2027-2030. It was argued that this will increase Romania's overall annual production capacity that could be used to produce the subject goods, while also adding additional price and volume pressure on Liberty Galati.^{Footnote 44}

[93] Algoma concluded from the information on the record that in face of weak European demand, the capacity addition from Ussuri Capital would contribute to an even greater decline in Romania's utilization rate and exacerbate the risk of dumping in overseas markets.

Bulgaria

[94] Algoma cited information on the record regarding the production capacity of Bulgaria's sole producer of steel plate, Stomana Industry. Although no information was available on the administrative record for plate production in Bulgaria, Algoma provided a methodology based on information on the record to estimate reversing mill production capacity and production in Bulgaria.

[95] Based on Algoma's estimates, Bulgaria would have an utilization rate of below 70% from 2024 to 2026. Additionally, Algoma's estimate indicates that in 2023, Bulgaria's excess capacity amounted to 21% of the entire Canadian market, surpassing the total volume of imports of like goods to Canada from all non-US sources combined.^{Footnote 45}

Worsening domestic conditions in the subject countries

Weak domestic demand

[96] Algoma cited information on the record regarding total steel and steel plate consumption trends and forecasts for Czechia and Romania. With respect to Czechia, demand peaked in 2024 for steel plate and is forecasted to contract over 2025 and 2026. Algoma noted that growth potential for Czech Republic's key plate-consuming manufacturing sectors are heavily dependent on economic conditions in Germany, which has been forecasted to have weak economic growth in the coming years.^{Footnote 46}

[97] Algoma noted that Romania's demand outlook is also quite weak. CRU data provided shows that plate consumption in each year from 2022-2024 was lower than 2020 levels and is not expected to fully recover to 2020 levels until 2026. Algoma stated that this trend corresponds to that of total steel consumption in Romania, which has declined between 2021 and 2023 due to persistent high inflation, tight financing conditions, and a contraction in manufacturing production.^{Footnote 47}

Significant import competition and rising production costs

[98] Algoma provided the following table based on United Nations Comtrade (UN Comtrade) data to demonstrate the trend of imports of steel plate in subject countries:

[99] Algoma noted that imports have steadily risen from pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels and presently account for a very large share of the subject countries plate markets. Algoma contended that the degree of import saturation limits the ability of subject country producers to rely on their domestic markets to absorb additional plate production and given the Chinese plate market conditions, import competition is likely to intensify in the next 12-24 months.^{Footnote 48}

[100] In terms of impact on subject country producers, Algoma cited a public statement from June 2024 where Liberty Steel of Czechia confirmed the financial strain that the imports have inflicted on its operation and the wider Czech steel industry:

[101] Algoma also referenced similar attitudes in Romania where the Liberty Galati producer attributed the poor performance of its operations to the high cost of energy, rising raw material prices, and competition from cheaper imported steel.^{Footnote 50}

Precarious outlook for economic activity and plate consumption

[102] Algoma contended that the broader economic outlook for the subject countries is also underwhelming. They referenced several reports and articles providing evidence of high inflation rates, protracted GDP growth, and specific challenges in each of the subject countries that have a directly impact domestic and European plate consumption.^{Footnote 51}

[103] Algoma concluded from information on the record that broad economic conditions point to deep, structural flaws in the subject countries’ economies that will continue to undermine domestic consumption in their domestic steel markets. As stated by Algoma:

Increase in Exports and the Export Orientation of Subject Country Producers

[104] Algoma contended that plate producers from the subject countries are heavily export-oriented and cited UN Comtrade data for HS Codes 7208.51 and 7208.52 to reversing mill plate production volumes for the three subject countries. The table indicates that plate export levels are very high, with producers from each subject country relying heavily on exports and being highly vulnerable to potential shocks and downturns in global export markets.^{Footnote 53}

[105] Algoma cited information on steel plate producers’ websites indicating that they are export oriented. Bulgarian producer Stomana Industry's website indicates that “…it exports more than 90% of its production in steel plates outside Bulgaria…”, meanwhile, Czechia's largest reversing mill plate producer Vítkovice Steel, claims to export to over 50 countries and states that 70% of its products are sold abroad. The country's other reversing mill plate producer, Třinecké Železárny, also reported exporting 70% of its steel products between 2020-2022.

Declining plate demand in the subject countries’ main export markets

[106] Algoma cited UN Comtrade data indicating that the top destination countries for subject good exports from the subject countries are Poland, Türkiye, and Germany. Collectively, these three countries absorbed 52% of all plate exports from the subject countries from 2022-2023.^{Footnote 54}

[107] In their case brief, Algoma provided evidence to support the weak economic conditions and outlook for the subject countries’ top export destinations of subject goods during the POR. It was contended that the economic picture in these key export markets, and Europe in general, yields a bleak outlook for plate producers from the subject countries. Algoma argued that even in the best-case scenario, where demand in these export markets manages to exceed the higher end of growth projections in 2025 and 2026, subject country producers will continue to face intense, rising competition from low-priced plate imports from Asia.^{Footnote 55}

[108] Algoma concluded that the information on the record demonstrates deteriorating export conditions in the EU, making it likely that producers from the subject counties will increase their reliance on new, overseas markets such as Canada to maintain throughput.

Inability to sell at normal values

[109] Algoma referenced the CBSA's market table that sets out the volumes and values of imports to Canada of plate from subject countries, and from other countries. The market table shows that there were no imports of plate from the subject counties during the POR. Algoma concluded that this supports the inference that producers and exporters from subject countries are unable to sell plate in Canada at non-dumped prices.^{Footnote 56}

Evidence that the subject countries are dumping in other markets

[110] Algoma argued that subject countries have been dumping in export markets since 2020. The Canadian producer cited MEPS hot-rolled plate prices for Czechia, however, MEPS does not publish prices for Bulgaria and Romania. In light of this, Algoma contended that all the subject countries belong to the EU single market and share strong regional economic ties and conditions, therefore, the Czech pricing benchmark serves as a reasonable proxy of home market pricing for all three subject countries. It was noted that Czech domestic plate prices also track the average European price trends quite closely, though they are typically 1-3% lower than the EU average.^{Footnote 57}

[111] Algoma provided a Subject Country Pricing Comparison in Annex 1 of its case brief, comparing the quarterly prices in Czechia to the quarterly average global export pricing from subject countries. This resulted in a total of 42 quarterly comparisons over the course of the POR. Of these comparisons, the subject countries’ average export prices were below Czechia's home market pricing in 27 of 42 comparisons, or 64%.^{Footnote 58}

[112] Algoma concluded that their analysis clearly shows the propensity of each of the subject countries to dump in export markets. It was further noted that home market pricing published by MEPS is a base price, while the UN Comtrade export pricing would include sales that command price extras for characteristics such as grade, dimensions, chemistry and testing. As such, the extend of dumping shown is likely understated.^{Footnote 59}

[113] Lastly, Algoma noted that the propensity of Romanian exporters to dump is supported by the fact that Mexico and Thailand also have anti-dumping findings in place against Romanian plate.^{Footnote 60}

Canadian market conditions

General economic conditions

[114] Aided by receding inflationary pressures, Algoma asserted that the Canadian economy is entering a period of subdued, but fairly stable, growth that would make it attractive to subject country exporters if the order were to expire.

[115] According to the Bank of Canada's 2024 October Monetary Policy Report, the Canadian economy expanded by about 2% in the first half of 2024, but that GDP growth would slow to approximately 1.5% in the third quarter. Algoma also referenced a International Monetary Fund (IMF) report indicating that Canada's GDP grew by 1.2% in 2023 and projects similarly modest growth trends of 1.3% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025.^{Footnote 61}

[116] Algoma also noted the impact that a US administration led by President-elect Trump will weigh on the economic outlook for Canada, especially in 2025 and 2026. They referenced a report from The Economist stating that the adverse effects of the new Trump administration will emerge through two main channels:

[117] Algoma argued that for key plate-consuming sectors of the Canadian economy, a more protectionist US trade policy under the new Trump administration again poses a particularly acute threat, as the US remains the largest market for Canada's manufactured goods.

Canadian plate market conditions

[118] Algoma contended that the Canadian plate market experienced significant volatility since the beginning of 2020, especially Q1 2020 and Q3 2022. CRU data was provided to demonstrate domestic plate demand trends and forecasts from 2019-2026. Data provided by Algoma shows that domestic plate demand has been very stable since 2023 and is expected to grow by a few percentage points by 2026. They argued that stability and growth tend to invite greater import competition, and they’ve seen import offers at low prices increase substantially over this period.^{Footnote 63}

Attractiveness of the Canadian and North American plate market

[119] Algoma argued that Canada is a key import destination for steel globally. According to the World Steel Association 2024 figures, Canada is the world's 18th-largest steel importer in 2023. They alleged that the Canadian market will be attractive destination for Bulgaria, Czech, and Romanian plate exporters’ excess production because of the higher prices in Canada relative to other markets. These higher market prices make dumped imports even more attractive to customers, which would allow the subject countries to quickly generate demand for their exports.^{Footnote 64}

[120] Algoma cited data indicating that plate prices in Canada have been higher than those in other markets since 2020, with this trend is projected to continue through 2024. Algoma also noted that plate prices in the primary export markets of the subject country producers are substantially lower than those in the Canadian market.^{Footnote 65}

[121] Algoma concluded that these high prices in Canada would allow the subject countries’ exporters to undercut domestic pricing at an especially high margin, increasing demand for their exports and creating an opportunity to sell significant volumes.

Romanian and Bulgarian exporters’ continued interest in Canada's steel market

[122] Algoma argued that Romanian and Bulgarian steel exporters have demonstrated their attraction to the Canadian market by significantly increasing exports of other steel products to Canada in 2023. Algoma cited Department of Commerce (DOC) steel import report indicating that in 2023 Romania was Canada's fourth-largest supplier of semi-finished steel and Bulgaria was Canada's seventh-largest supplier of long steel products. Algoma stated by contrast, in 2021 and 2022, steel imports to Canada from both countries were negligible. Algoma contended that this rapid escalation in import growth highlights the ability of subject country exporters to quickly shift large export volumes to Canada.^{Footnote 66}

[123] Algoma noted that Bulgaria is presently subject to a dumping investigation concerning concrete reinforcing bar exports to Canada where the preliminary margins of dumping calculated a margin of 18.1% for the Bulgarian exporter.^{Footnote 67}

[124] Algoma concluded that the footholds now provide established channels for plate from the subject countries to re-enter Canada should the order be rescinded. If the order is rescinded, it is reasonable to infer that Romanian exporters would use these existing channels to sell plate as a product that is value-added relative to semi-finished steel.

Low-priced competition from other import sources

[125] Algoma alleged that there has been significant growth in offshore imports of steel plate to Canada in recent years. If the order were rescinded, subject goods exported from Bulgaria, Czechia, and Romania would need to compete with low-priced offshore sources and offer lower prices than these sources to regain market share in Canada. Algoma further argued that the inroads made by these other offshore suppliers confirm that there remains demand for low-priced offshore plate in Canada, as well as, active channels of distribution that subject country exporters could access.^{Footnote 68}

Period-average import statistics

[126] Algoma referenced data from Statistics Canada and the CBSA showing that imports from France, South Korea, and Taiwan have increased substantially over the POR, while imports from Türkiye also remain significant. The data presented shows that the combined share of plate imports from France, South Korea, and Taiwan has grown from 17.4% of total imports in 2021 to 29.8% in January-September 2024. It was argued that these volumes indicates that exporters from these countries have developed strong relationships with Canadian customers over the POR.^{Footnote 69}

[127] Algoma also noted that import volumes reported by the CBSA for South Korea during the POR were significantly lower than those reported by Statistics Canada. The CBSA has acknowledged this discrepancy in the import statistics for South Korea and will give it due consideration in its analysis.

Account-specific evidence

[128] Algoma reiterated that they have encountered significant and increasing low-priced competition from new offshore sources, which have gained market share in Canada by undercutting domestic prices. To support its position, Algoma filed commercial evidence showing specific instances of competition with plate from offshore sources in order to demonstrate the extent of price undercutting. They provided several examples on the record demonstrating imports from Moroccan, South Korea, Taiwan and Türkiye at prices that undercut those in the Canadian market.^{Footnote 70}

Evraz

[129] Evraz stated that they had reviewed the public submission of Algoma in this expiry review investigation and that they support Algoma's position. Evraz supported the notion that if the order were to expire, exporters from Bulgaria, Czechia, and Romania are likely to resume dumping subject goods into the Canadian market for the following reasons.

[130] Evraz referenced information on the record regarding the economic conditions in the subject countries, the broader weak European market, and the impact of US Section 232 tariffs and quota restrictions on EU exports. Additionally, Evraz noted that the subject countries continue to heavily invest in their operations in light of challenges selling into the European market. Evraz concluded that, cumulatively, these developments illustrate the likelihood of resumed dumping from Bulgaria, Czechia, and Romania if the order is rescinded.^{Footnote 71}

Other Canadian producers

[131] Two Canadian service centres, SSAB Central Inc.^{Footnote 72} and Nova Steel Inc.,^{Footnote 73} submitted letters endorsing the case brief filed by Algoma, supporting the notion that if the order were to expire, it would likely result in the continuation and/or resumption of dumping of subject goods from Bulgaria, Czechia and Romania.

Parties contending that continued or resumed dumping is unlikely

[132] None of the parties contended that resumed or continued dumping of subject goods from Bulgaria, Czechia, and Romania is unlikely if the order is rescinded.

Bulgaria

[143] The CBSA did not receive an ERQ response, case brief or reply submission from the known producer in Bulgaria. The CBSA, therefore, relied on information submitted by participating parities, as well as other information on the administrative record in considering whether the dumping of subject goods from Bulgaria is likely to resume or continue if the order were to expire.

[144] Guided by the factors in the SIMR and based on the documentation on the administrative record, the following list represents a summary of the CBSA's analysis conducted in this expiry review investigation:

• Bulgaria's high export dependency and the destination of its plate exports
• lack of interest in the Canadian market
• pricing data suggesting Bulgaria is likely not dumping in other markets and
• absence of anti-dumping measures by other countries

[145] In the Canada Customs and Revenue Agency's (CCRA) original investigation in 2003, Stomana Industry S.A. (Stomana) was the only known producer/exporter to have shipped subject goods to Canada during the POI.^{Footnote 79} Stomana did not participate in the original investigation nor has it participated in the last three re-investigations which concluded in 2006, 2008, and 2010.^{Footnote 80} As a result of the non-cooperation by the sole exporter in Bulgaria during the original investigation and three subsequent re-investigations, normal values for Stomana were determined pursuant to a ministerial specification, on the basis of an advance of 74.6% over the export price.

Bulgaria's high export dependency and the destination of its plate exports

[146] According the company's website, Stomana has an annual production capacity of 400,000 MT with respect its plate product's rolling mill.^{Footnote 81} This information was further supported by evidence provided by the complainant. Additionally, the complainant's evidence indicated that there are no forecasted increases in Bulgarian plate capacity in the coming years.^{Footnote 82}

[147] In terms of steel plate production, there is no country-specific production data available on the administrative record for Bulgaria. However, using data from steel plate publications, the complainants were able to provide an estimate of Bulgarian steel plate production for the first three years of the CBSA's POR (2021, 2022 and 2023). The estimates provided by the complainant indicate that Bulgaria's utilization rate has been decreasing throughout the POR. Yet, data shows that forecasted production will see a slight increase in 2024 and 2025.^{Footnote 83}

[148] Data from the UN Comtrade identifies a similar trend with respect exports of plate under HS Codes 7208.51 and 7208.52. According to the database, Bulgarian exports decreased by 4.03% from 223,624 MT in 2021 to 214,616 MT in 2023.^{Footnote 84} Based on the estimated production figures and UN Comtrade export data for 2023, Bulgaria exported approximately 84% of its steel plate production, highlighting the country's high dependency on plate product exports.

[149] Bulgaria's export orientation is substantiated by the sole producer, Stomana Industry, as it is stated on their company website:

[150] This statement supports the data above, indicating that a significant portion of Bulgarian steel plate is exported. However, Stomana's 2022 annual report revealed that 99% of total revenue is generated primarily from the European market, with the remaining 1% realized through sales to the United States, Africa and Asia.^{Footnote 86} This serves as a clear indication that Stomana is primarily focused on servicing the European market with its exports.

[151] Stomana's European focus is further supported by data on the administrative record provided by Algoma. Analyzing UN Comtrade data, the CBSA estimates that more than 95% of Bulgarian steel plate exports in 2022 and 2023 were destined for the European market.^{Footnote 87} As such, in the event that the current order were to expiry, it is unlikely that Bulgaria will resume dumping subject goods to Canada given its focus on the European market.

Lack of interest in the Canadian market

[152] During the original investigation, import volumes from Bulgaria represented 3.1% of total imports into Canada from all countries.^{Footnote 88} During the POR of this expiry review, there were no shipments of subject goods from Bulgaria to Canada. Furthermore, the administrative record shows that there has been an absence of shipments of subject goods from Bulgaria to the Canadian market since at least 2015.^{Footnote 89} Additionally, there have been no requests from the Bulgarian exporter for a re-determination of normal values during this period.

[153] The lack of participation of the Bulgarian exporter in this review is consistent with the general disinterest they have demonstrated since the initiation of the original investigation in 2003. The CBSA does not view the lack of cooperation as an indication for or against the likelihood of resumed dumping from Bulgaria, however, a lack of participation would appear to reflect an overall lack of interest in the Canadian market.

[154] Furthermore, in 2006, the CBSA rescinded a finding with respect the certain flat hot-rolled carbon and alloy steel sheet and strip originating in or exported from Bulgaria.^{Footnote 90} Since the finding has been rescinded, there has been no continuation or resumption of dumping in Canada by Bulgarian producers or hot-rolled sheet, nor any subsequent finding for the same goods. This provides additional evidence that there is a lack of interest by Bulgarian flat-roll steel producers in the Canadian market.

[155] In the past, the CBSA has held the position that the lack of shipments and participation suggests an inability of the Bulgarian plate producer to compete in Canada at non-dumped prices. Nonetheless, considering the relatively low volumes of dumped goods during the original investigation in 2003, the absence of exports to Canada since at least 2015, the lack of appeals or re-determination requests despite fluctuating steel prices, and the sole Bulgarian subject goods producer's focus on the European market, the CBSA is of the opinion that the Bulgarian producer is unlikely to have renewed interest in the Canadian market should the order be allow to expire.

Pricing data suggesting Bulgaria is likely not dumping in other markets

[156] In reviewing the pricing data available on the administrative record, the information suggests that exports of steel plate from Bulgaria to other markets during the POR could be above domestic selling prices in Europe.

[157] Algoma provided pricing information to support its position that Bulgaria has been dumping in export markets since 2020. To determine domestic market pricing for Bulgaria, Algoma relied upon hot-rolled plate prices published by MEPS International. However, as the publication does not provide pricing for Bulgarian steel plate, Algoma proposed that pricing available for Czechia would serve as a reasonable proxy for home market pricing. In its analysis, Algoma compared the quarterly prices in Czechia to the quarterly average global export pricing from Bulgaria obtained from UN Comtrade. As a result, 14 price comparisons were made from 2021 through H1 2024, and they determined that Bulgaria's average export prices were above Czechia home market pricing in only 5 of 14 comparisons.^{Footnote 91}

[158] In its analysis, the CSBA relied on global steel plate pricing as published by Fastmarkets. Fastmarkets provides ex-works pricing for domestic steel plate in Southern Europe, which serves as a reasonable proxy for Bulgarian home market pricing, since Bulgaria is part of this European sub-region. The Fastmarkets website includes their price reporting methodology, which provides clear specifications for the price points covered.^{Footnote 92} Specifically for Southern Europe, Fastmarkets provides ex-works pricing for S235JR quality plate^{Footnote 93} in commercial quantities during the POR. Since the CBSA was unable to obtain public information concerning MEPS International's pricing methodology, nor was there information on the administrative record regarding such methodology, the CBSA considers Fastmarkets’ information to be more representative of domestic pricing for Bulgaria.

[159] For the CBSA's pricing analysis, quarterly prices for Fastmarkets’ domestic steel plate prices for Southern Europe (MB-STE-0035)^{Footnote 94} were compared to the quarterly average global export pricing from Bulgaria obtained from UN Comtrade.^{Footnote 95} From 2021 through H1 2024, Bulgaria's average export prices were above Southern Europe's home market prices in 10 of the 14 comparisons and remained higher since Q3 2022. Furthermore, a comparison of the average home market price to the average export price for the entire POR reveals no dumping, as the Bulgarian export price exceeded the Southern Europe home market price.

[160] For the purposes of this analysis, it is important to note that the spike in Fastmarkets steel plate pricing in 2021 and early 2022 is likely due to anomalous economic trends caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, as discussed earlier in this report. Given the circumstances, the CBSA also reviewed prices for a more isolated period of the POR when global steel plate markets had recovered from the atypical, non-cyclical conditions caused by the pandemic.

[161] Based on the this analysis, during the portion of the POR when the market impact of the pandemic had subsided, Bulgaria's export price of steel plate on average well exceeded the domestic price, resulting in non-dumped goods.

[162] The CBSA notes that its pricing analysis is based on the best information available on the administrative record. As a result, it does not represent actual domestic and export pricing information of the producers of subject goods in Bulgaria. Consequently, the pricing analysis conducted in this review would be more reliable and carry more weight if direct pricing information from Bulgaria were available. Therefore, the CBSA will take this into account when considering pricing as a factor in determining the likelihood of resumed dumping by Bulgarian producers if the order is allowed to expire.

Absence of anti-dumping measures by other countries

[163] The CBSA currently has only one other anti-dumping measure in place against steel products from Bulgaria: concrete reinforcing bar.^{Footnote 96}

[164] Information on the administrative record indicates that only one other country has an anti-dumping measure against Bulgaria. This active measure in force was put in place in 2006 by Türkiye for tube and pipe fittings. However, no other country has anti-dumping measures against Bulgaria with respect to steel plate or steel flat-rolled products.^{Footnote 97}

[165] Given the absence of anti-dumping measures in other jurisdictions with respect to the subject goods, and general lack of trade measures against Bulgaria for all other goods, it is reasonable to determine that the expiry of the order is unlikely to result in the resumption of dumping of certain steel plate from Bulgaria.

Determination regarding likelihood of continued or resumed dumping

[166] Based on evidence on the record in respect of: the destination of Bulgarian steel plate products, the lack of interest in the Canadian market, pricing data suggesting that Bulgaria is likely not dumping in other markets, and the absence of anti-dumping measures by other countries, the CBSA determined that the expiry of the order is unlikely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of certain steel plate from Bulgaria.

Czech Republic

[167] The CBSA did not receive any ERQ responses, case briefs, or reply submissions from exporters in Czechia. The CBSA, therefore, relied on information submitted from participating parties, as well as other information on the administrative record, for the purposes of the expiry review investigation with respect to Czechia.

[168] Guided by the factors in the SIMR and based on the documentation on the administrative record, the following list represents a summary of the CBSA's analysis conducted in this expiry review investigation:

• Czechia's capacity and production of steel plate in a challenging European market
• Czechia's high export dependency and the destination of its plate exports
• Lack of interest in the Canadian market
• Pricing data suggesting Czechia is likely not dumping in other markets and
• Absence of anti-dumping measures by other countries

[169] In the CCRA's original investigation in 2003, Vítkovice Steel a.s. (Vítkovice) was the only known producer/exporter to have shipped subject goods to Canada during the POI.^{Footnote 98} Although Vítkovice participated in the investigation, the CCRA found that the costing data was not reliable and normal values for Czechia were determined pursuant to a ministerial specification, on the basis of an advance of 74.6% over the export price.

[170] There was no cooperation from exporters in the two subsequent re-investigations concluded in 2006 and 2008. In the 2010 re-investigation, Vítkovice was the sole responder, submitting a letter indicating that it had not shipped subject goods to Canada during the period of investigation and had no intention of doing so in the near future.

[171] Vítkovice participated in the CBSA's 2013 Expiry Review investigation, arguing that continued dumping of subject goods from Czechia was unlikely. At the time, Vítkovice and Evraz Canada were under common direct ownership, and Vítkovice claimed that any new potential sales into Canada would be fully coordinated with its affiliate Evraz Canada.^{Footnote 99} In 2014, Vítkovice was acquired by a group of private investors and is no longer associated with Evraz Canada.^{Footnote 100} Vítkovice has not participated in any CBSA proceeding related to this measure since the 2013 Expiry Review investigation.

Czechia's capacity and production of steel plate in a challenging European market

[172] According the company's website, the known producer Vítkovice has an annual production capacity of 755,000 MT with respect its plate product's rolling mill.^{Footnote 101} Despite Vítkovice being the only known producer to participate in CBSA proceedings related to this measure, information on the administrative record indicates there are two other potential producers of subject goods in Czechia; Liberty Steel Ostrava (Liberty Ostrava) who operates a steckel mill with an annual capacity of 1.3 million MT^{Footnote 102} and Třinecké Železárny (controlled by Moravia Steel) that produces flat products at their reversing mill.

[173] The evidence provided by Algoma estimated Czechia's total steel plate producing capacity and indicated that there are no forecasted increases in Czechia steel plate capacity in the coming years.^{Footnote 103}

[174] In terms of steel plate production, CRU Steel Market Outlook estimates that during the POR, Czechia production has been decreasing with only a slight increase occurring in 2024. The figures indicate that Czechia's utilization rate remained below 50% throughout the POR, decreasing from levels realized in 2021 and remaining below 2021 figures throughout 2022 and 2023.^{Footnote 104}

[175] According to Fastmarkets articles, Czechia steel plate re-rollers have been operating at reduced rates since 2021 due to the lack of slab supply from Russia and Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine previously accounted for 93% of the EU's overall slab deliveries.^{Footnote 105}

[176] As previously explained, the war between Russia and Ukraine has had a disruptive impact on the availability of semi-finished and finished steel goods in the EU. Consequently, Czechia producers have faced a unique challenge in maintaining or increasing their utilization rates to fulfill EU demand with a limited supply of inputs.

[177] Information on the administrative record indicates that producers of steel plate in Czechia had varying degrees of success adapting to the new geopolitical situation that has been compounded by other challenges currently faced by Czechia producers. For example, producer Liberty Ostrava cited the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the increase of steel imports in the EU, and the higher regulatory and decarbonisation costs as contributing factors to the deteriorating steel market conditions in Europe.^{Footnote 106} Liberty Ostrava, accounting for more than half of Czechia's total capacity, faced mounting losses and idled its last operating furnace in October 2023 and initiated bankruptcy proceedings in Q1 2024.

[178] Steel plate producer Vítkovice expressed a similar sentiment with respect to the Czechia steel industry, citing high energy prices, tightening environmental regulations, cheap imports from non-European countries and weakening demand as factors plaguing the domestic steel industry. However, in light of the steel industry struggles and a reported loss of 550 million koruna ($32 million CAD) in 2022, Vítkovice reported its highest earnings in 15 years in 2023, citing good production organization and favorable demand. Vítkovice stated that the company has been doing well in the Czech, Slovak and Polish markets and has started to deliver to Ukraine.^{Footnote 107}

[179] Moravia Steel also acknowledged in its 2022 annual report that the overall situation has become more complicated since the COVID-19 pandemic primarily due to the Russia-Ukraine war which has led to an unprecedented increase in energy prices and double-digit inflation. However, Moravia Steel stated that it has responded to all these serious circumstances and has been able to provide adequate supplies of raw material in order to maintain smooth manufacturing at Třinecké Železárny and other downstream subsidiaries.^{Footnote 108} Despite the domestic challenges, Moravia steel was able to generate a profit in both 2022 and 2023 reporting periods.

[180] In light of the challenges faced, the majority of steel plate producers in Czechia have managed to adapt to the evolving market conditions, achieving overall profitability while maintaining their presence in the European market. This adaptation is evidenced by utilization rates recorded by reversing mills since 2022.

[181] Data with respect to reversing mills does not include production figures from Liberty Ostrava who operates a steckel mill and has idled operations in 2023. Focusing on reversing mills alone, information on the administrative record indicates that utilization rates have since recovered from reported lows in 2022 and are forecasted to significantly increase in 2024. Levels reported in 2024 are forecasted to taper in 2025 and continue to remain steady in 2026.

[182] Based on evidence on the record, producers of steel plate in Czechia have faced several challenges since the COVID-19 pandemic, including but not limited to, geopolitical factors, higher regulatory and decarbonisation costs and imports of steel plate from non-European countries. Despite the challenges, the majority of Czechia producers have been able to remain or return to profit, as well as increase factory utilization rates by servicing the European market. As such, it is reasonable to determine that the expiry of the order is unlikely to result in the resumption of dumping of steel plate from Czechia into Canada.

Czechia's high export dependency and the destination of its plate exports

[183] Evidence on the administrative record indicates that Czechia producers may be significantly export-oriented. The table below summarizes what was provided in Algoma's case brief which compares steel plate exports for HS codes 7208.51 and 7208.52 to reversing mill plate production volumes for steel plate producers in Czechia.

[184] This table shows that plate export levels are very high, averaging 70.9% of total plate production in Czechia from 2021-2023. However, it should be noted the complainant excluded production figures from steckel mills in their export analysis in light of including those production figures when determining the country's excess capacity. As footnoted in the CITT's Order and Reasons in Expiry Review No. RR-2018-007:

[185] Given the fact that export information relied upon from UN Comtrade doesn’t delineate between exports of discrete plate produced from reversing mills and those produced by steckel mills, in the CBSA analysis of exports both production from reversing mills and steckel mills were included in determining Czechia's exports as a percentage of domestic production (see table below). Nevertheless, the CBSA acknowledges that resulting figures may be understated given the fact that not all production from steckel mills may be subject.

[186] This table shows that plate exports are much lower, only averaging 35.8% of total plate production in Czechia from 2021-2023. This would indicate that the majority of steel plate production in Czechia is being consumed domestically. However, in light of these figures, evidence on the administrative record supports the opinion that Czechia plate producers are export oriented as it is corroborated by the plate producers themselves.

[187] Czechia's largest reversing mill plate producer, Vítkovice, claims to export to over 50 countries and states that 70% of its products are sold abroad.^{Footnote 115} This was further supported by an article published by the Czechia Steel Union which stated:

[188] The country's other reversing mill plate producer, Třinecké Železárny (controlled by Moravia Steel) also reported exporting 70% of its steel products from 2021-2023.^{Footnote 117} Moravia Steel's 2022 annual report goes on to state that in 2022, total steel imported to Czechia was for CZK 210 billion, while exports amounted to CZK 133 billion. Moreover, the key markets for Czech steel continues to be EU member states, predominately Poland, Germany and Slovakia. The report states that exports of steel to countries outside the EU amounted to approximately CZK 15 billion, or 10.1%.^{Footnote 118} In addition, Moravia Steel's 2023 annual report indicates that over 94% of its total supplies were exported to either the European Union or other European counties for each year of this expiry review's POR.^{Footnote 119}

[189] Data from UN Comtrade identifies a similar trend with respect to the destination of Czechia exports of plate. According to the database, Czechia's exports to Germany, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia alone represented over 90% of exports in years 2021-2023 (see table below).

[190] The data and company statements above clearly indicate that Czechia steel plate producers, given their export-orientation, are primarily focused on servicing the European market. Consequently, if the current order were to expiry, it is unlikely that Czechia will resume dumping subject goods to Canada given its strong focus on the European market.

Lack of interest in the Canadian market

[191] During the POR of this expiry review, there were no shipments of subject goods from Czechia to Canada. In addition, the administrative record shows that there has been an absence of shipments of subject goods from Czechia to the Canadian market since at least 2015.^{Footnote 121} Further, there has been no requests from the Czechia exporters for a re-determination of normal values during this period.

[192] The lack of participation of the Czechia exporter in this review is consistent with the general lack of interest demonstrated with respect to this measure since the conclusion of the original investigation in 2003. During the 2010 re-investigations, producer Vítkovice submitted a letter indicating that it had not shipped subject goods to Canada during the period being investigated and had no intention of doing so in the near future.^{Footnote 122}

[193] The CBSA does not regard the lack of cooperation in this proceeding as an indication for or against the likelihood of resumed dumping from Czechia, however, a lack of participation would appear to reflect a lack of overall interest in the Canadian market.

[194] In the past, the CBSA has taken the position that the lack of shipments and participation would suggest an inability on behalf of the Czechia plate producers to compete in Canada at non-dumped prices. Nonetheless, given the absence of exports to Canada since at least 2015, the lack of appeals or re-determination requests, and the Czechia steel plate producer's focus on the European market, the CBSA is of the opinion that the Czechia producers are unlikely to have renewed interest in the Canadian market should the order be allow to expire.

Pricing data suggesting Czechia is likely not dumping in other markets

[195] In reviewing the pricing data available on the administrative record, the information suggests that exports of steel plate from Czechia to other markets during the POR could be above domestic selling prices in Europe.

[196] Algoma provided pricing information to support its position that Czechia has been dumping in export markets since 2020. To determine domestic market pricing for Czechia, Algoma relied upon hot-rolled plate prices published by MEPS International. MEPS International publishes hot-rolled plate prices for Czechia, therefore, no proxy for home market pricing was necessary. In its analysis, Algoma compared the quarterly prices in Czechia as reported by MEPS, to the quarterly average global export pricing from Czechia obtained from UN Comtrade. As a result, 14 price comparisons were made from 2021 through H1 2024, and they determined that Czechia's average export prices were above the Czechia home market pricing in only 6 of 14 comparisons.^{Footnote 123}

[197] In its analysis, the CBSA has given consideration to the complainant's evidence, noting that MEPS International publishes home market pricing for Czechia. For reasons stated below and to maintain consistency among subject countries, the CBSA will conduct a pricing analysis using global steel plate pricing as published by Fastmarkets.

[198] Fastmarkets provides ex-works pricing for domestic steel plate in both Northern and Southern Europe. The average pricing from both regions will be used as a proxy for home market pricing in Czechia. The CBSA deems Fastmarkets' pricing information to be a more reliable source, as their website provides a price reporting methodology with clear specifications for the covered price points.^{Footnote 124} Specifically for both European regions, Fastmarkets provides ex-works domestic pricing for S235JR quality plate,^{Footnote 125} in commercial quantities during the POR.

[199] For the CBSA's pricing analysis, the average of quarterly prices for Fastmarkets’ domestic steel plate in Northern (MB-STE-0035) and Southern Europe (MB-STE-0035)^{Footnote 126} were compared to the quarterly average global export prices from Czechia, obtained from UN Comtrade.^{Footnote 127} From 2021 through H1 2024, Czechia's average export prices were above the average European home market pricing in 8 of the 14 comparisons and have remained above since Q3 2022, except for Q1 2023. Furthermore, a comparison of the average home market price to the average export price for the entire POR reveals potential dumping, as the Czechia export price was below the average Europe home market price.

[200] For the purposes of this analysis, it is important to note that the spike in Fastmarkets steel plate pricing in 2021 and early 2022 is likely due to anomalous economic trends caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, as discussed earlier in this report. Given the circumstances, the CBSA also reviewed prices for a more isolated period of the POR when global steel plate markets had recovered from the atypical, non-cyclical conditions caused by the pandemic.

[201] Based on this analysis, during the portion of the POR when the market impact of pandemic had subsided, Czechia's export price of steel plate on average exceeded the domestic price, resulting in non-dumped goods.

[202] The CBSA notes that its pricing analysis is based on the best information available on the administrative record. As a result, it does not represent actual domestic and export pricing information of the producers of subject goods in Czechia. Consequently, the pricing analysis conducted in this review would be more reliable and carry more weight if direct pricing information from Czechia were available. Therefore, the CBSA will take this into account when considering pricing as a factor in determining the likelihood of resumed dumping by Czechia producers if the order is allowed to expire.

Absence of anti-dumping measures by other countries

[203] The CBSA does not have any other anti-dumping measure in place against products from Czechia.

[204] Information on the administrative record indicates that only one other country has an anti-dumping measure against Czechia. This measure in force was put in place in 2021 by United States for seamless carbon and alloy steel standard, line, and pressure pipe. However, no other country has anti-dumping measures against Czechia with respect to steel plate or steel flat-rolled products.^{Footnote 128}

[205] The CBSA notes that in addition to the 2004 finding (NQ-2003-002) which is the subject of this expiry review, Czechia has in the past been involved in dumping plate into Canada with a previous finding being rescinded in 1998.^{Footnote 129} This pattern of dumping plate into Canada may be indicative of the likely future behaviour of plate producers in Czechia if the order is rescinded. However, there is no available information publically or on the administrative record regarding the details of those proceedings, therefore, the CBSA is unable to determine any parallels between today's order and previous proceedings, should they exist.

[206] Nevertheless, the current finding has been in place for over 20 years and steel plate producers in Czechia have yet to participate in a proceedings since 2013. The absence of anti-dumping measures by other countries against steel plate or flat-rolled products from Czechia demonstrates the propensity of Czechia steel plate producers to sell their products to export markets at non-dumped prices.

[207] Given the absence of anti-dumping measures in other jurisdictions with respect to the subject goods and the lack of trade measures in force against Czechia for all other goods, it is reasonable to conclude that the expiry of the order is unlikely to result in the resumption of dumping of certain steel plate from Czechia into Canada.

Determination regarding likelihood of continued or resumed dumping

[208] Based on evidence on the record in respect of: Czechia's capacity and production of steel plate in a challenging European market, Czechia's high export dependency and the destination of its plate exports, the lack of interest in the Canadian market, pricing data suggesting that Czechia is likely not dumping in other markets, and the absence of anti-dumping measures by other countries, the CBSA determined that the expiry of the order is unlikely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of certain steel plate from Czechia.

Romania

[209] The CBSA did not receive any ERQ responses, case briefs, or reply submissions from exporters in Romania. The CBSA, therefore, relied on information submitted from participating parties, as well as other information on the administrative record, for the purposes of the expiry review investigation with respect to Romania.

[210] Guided by the factors in the SIMR and based on the documentation on the administrative record, the following list represents a summary of the CBSA's analysis conducted in this expiry review investigation:

• Romania's capacity and production of steel plate in a challenging European market
• Lack of interest in the Canadian market
• Pricing data suggesting Romania is likely not dumping in other markets
• Absence of anti-dumping measures by other countries in recent years

[211] In the CCRA's original investigation in 2003, Ispat Sidex S.A. (now Liberty Galati) was the only known producer/exporter to have shipped subject goods to Canada during the POI. Ispat Sidex S.A. participated in the original investigation as well as in the two subsequent re-investigations, which concluded in 2006 and 2008, respectively. However, no exporter participated in the last re-investigation, which concluded in 2010.^{Footnote 130}

[212] Due to no cooperation from exporters from Romania during the 2010 re-investigation, normal values previously issued were revoked and were determined pursuant to a ministerial specification, on the basis of an advance of 74.6% over the export price.^{Footnote 131} Romanian producers/exporters have not since participated in a CBSA proceeding.

Romania's capacity and production of steel plate in a challenging European market

[213] Liberty Galati is Romania's largest steel mill and sole active plate producer. According to information on the administrative record, Romania has an annual production capacity of approximately 5 million MT with the minority of that capacity representing reversing mill capacity and the remainder representing hot-strip mill capacity.^{Footnote 132} According to CRU Steel Plate Market Outlook, there are no forecasted increases in Romania's plate capacity in the coming years.^{Footnote 133}

[214] In terms of steel plate production, CRU Steel Market Outlook estimates that during the POR, Romanian production of steel plate has declined significantly. The figures also indicate that Romania's capacity utilization rate remained below 50% throughout the POR.^{Footnote 134}

[215] The decline in utilization rates resulted from Liberty Galati's drop in production on equipment that can be used to produce subject goods. According to an article on the administrative record, from October 17 to November 8, 2023, the only operating blast furnace at Liberty Galati's steel plant in Romania was suspended. The company attributed the shutdown to the high cost of energy and the rising cost of material. Additionally, in July 2023, the company's rolling shops were idle due to a lack of raw materials and a weak order book. Although the rolling shops were restarted in August 2023, the company later planned to shut them down again after rolling the remaining slabs and re-rolling hot-rolled coils.^{Footnote 135}

[216] The lack of raw material and the rising costs of these materials, can be attributed to the Russia-Ukraine war, as it has significantly disrupted the availability of semi-finished and finished steel goods in the EU. The war has compounded the challenges for Romanian producers like Liberty Galati, making it difficult for them to maintain or increase utilization rates due to the limited supply of input materials needed to meet the EU's steel plate demand.

[217] In addition, Liberty Ostrava, a sister company in Czechia producing subject goods, cited higher regulatory and decarbonisation costs as a contributing factor to the deteriorating steel market conditions in Europe.^{Footnote 136} These factors has likely impacted Liberty Galati in the same manner, given that both companies operate within a similar economic and regulatory environment.

[218] Regarding regulatory and decarbonisation costs, Liberty Galati has sought support from the Romanian government, requesting assistance with the distribution of CO2 certificates and the continuation of existing incentives for energy-intensive consumers.^{Footnote 137} Additionally, Liberty Galati has engaged in consultations with the government to explore solutions for reducing the energy costs in steel production. Currently, energy accounts for nearly 40% of the cost per tonne of steel, compared to just 8% in 2019.^{Footnote 138} In 2023, Liberty Galati was only been able to resume operations after the state-owned bank extended a EUR 150 million loan with state guarantees.^{Footnote 139}

[219] Given the economic challenges faced by Liberty Galati, including high energy costs, rising material prices, and regulatory pressures, the company's ability to maintain its production capacity remains under significant strain. Nonetheless, the evidence on the record indicates that Liberty Galati has exercised restraint in its production activities. Despite financial and operational difficulties, there is no indication on the administrative record that the company has resorted to aggressive or desperate trade practices in order to maintain a high level of production and capacity utilization to reduce average costs.

Lack of interest in the Canadian market

[220] During the POR, there were no shipments of subject goods from Romania to Canada. In addition, the administrative record shows that there has been an absence of shipments of subject goods from Romania to the Canadian market since at least 2015.^{Footnote 140} Further, there have been no requests from the Romanian exporters for a re-determination of normal values during this period.

[221] The lack of participation of the Romanian exporter in this review is consistent with the general lack of interest shown towards the Canadian market for subject goods since the conclusion of the normal value re-investigation in 2008.^{Footnote 141}

[222] The CBSA does not regard the lack of cooperation in this proceeding as an indication for or against the likelihood of resumed dumping from Romania. However, a continued lack of participation in all CBSA proceedings since 2008 would appear to reflect a general disinterest in the Canadian market. The CBSA noted that the Romanian exporter was last issued normal values in 2008, yet no exports of subject goods were sold to Canada and the company has since stopped participating in ensuing re-investigations and expiry reviews.^{Footnote 142}

[223] Furthermore, in 2004 the CITT rescinded a finding regarding certain flat hot-rolled carbon and alloy steel sheet originating in or exported from Romania.^{Footnote 143} Since the finding was rescinded, there has been no apparent continuation or resumption of dumping in Canada by Romanian producers of hot-rolled sheet, nor has there been any subsequent finding for the same goods. Moreover, the Romanian producer that was subject to the hot-rolled steel sheet finding, Ispat Sidex S.A., is the same producer subject to this order. This is further evidence of the lack of interest in the Canadian market from flat-rolled steel producers in Romania.

[224] In the past, the CBSA has taken the position that the lack of shipments and participation suggests an inability on the part of Romanian plate producers to compete in Canada at non-dumped prices. Nonetheless, given the absence of exports to Canada, the lack of appeals or re-determination requests, the historical lack of exports, and the fact that the known Romanian producer of subject goods did not resume dumping other flat steel products that were previously subject to a finding that has since long been rescinded, the CBSA is of the opinion that Romanian producers are unlikely to have renewed interest in the Canadian market should the order be allowed to expire.

Pricing data suggesting Romania is likely not dumping in other markets

[225] In reviewing the pricing data available on the administrative record, the information suggests that exports of steel plate from Romania to other markets during the POR could be above domestic selling prices in Europe.

[226] Algoma provided pricing information to support its position that Romania has been dumping in export markets since 2020. To determine domestic market pricing for Romania, Algoma relied upon hot-rolled plate prices published by MEPS International. However, the publication does not provide pricing for Romanian steel plate and Algoma proposed that pricing available for Czechia would serve as a reasonable proxy for home market pricing. In its analysis, Algoma compared the quarterly prices in Czechia to the quarterly average global export pricing from Romania obtained from UN Comtrade. As a result, 14 price comparisons were made from 2021 through H1 2024, and they determined that Romania's average export prices were above the Czechia home market pricing in only 4 of 14 comparisons.^{Footnote 144}

[227] In its analysis, the CSBA relied upon global steel plate pricing as published by Fastmarkets. Fastmarkets provides ex-work pricing for domestic steel plate in Southern Europe, which serves as a reasonable proxy for home market pricing since Romania is part of this European sub-region. The Fastmarkets website includes their price reporting methodology, which provides clear specifications for the price points covered.^{Footnote 145} Specifically for Southern Europe, Fastmarkets provides ex-works pricing for S235JR quality plate^{Footnote 146} in commercial quantities during the POR. Since the CBSA was unable to obtain public information concerning MEPS International's pricing methodology, nor was there information on the administrative record regarding such methodology, the CBSA considers Fastmarkets’ information to be more representative of domestic pricing for Romania.

[228] For the CBSA's pricing analysis, quarterly prices for Fastmarkets’ domestic steel plate prices for Southern Europe (MB-STE-0035)^{Footnote 147} were compared to the quarterly average global export pricing from Romania obtained from UN Comtrade.^{Footnote 148} From 2021 through H1 2024, Romania's average export prices were above Southern Europe's home market prices in 10 of the 14 comparisons and have remained above since Q3 2022. Furthermore, a comparison of the average home market price to the average export price for the POR reveals no dumping, as the Romanian export price exceeded the Southern Europe home market price.

[229] For the purposes of this analysis, it is important to note that the spike in Fastmarkets steel plate pricing in 2021 and early 2022 is likely due to anomalous economic trends caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, as discussed earlier in this report. Given the circumstances, the CBSA also reviewed prices for a more isolated period of the POR when global steel plate markets had recovered from the atypical, non-cyclical conditions caused by the pandemic.

[230] Based on the this analysis, during the portion of the POR when the market impact of the pandemic had subsided, Romania's export price of steel plate on average well exceeded the domestic price, resulting in non-dumped goods.

[231] The CBSA notes that its pricing analysis is based on the best information available on the administrative record. As a result, it does not represent actual domestic and export pricing information of the producers of subject goods in Romania. Consequently, the pricing analysis conducted in this review would be more reliable and carry more weight if direct pricing information from Romania were available. Therefore, the CBSA will take this into account when considering pricing as a factor in determining the likelihood of resumed dumping by Romania producers if the order is allowed to expire.

Absence of anti-dumping measures by other countries in recent years

[232] The CBSA does not have any other anti-dumping measure in place against products from Romania.^{Footnote 149}

[233] Information on the administrative record indicates that only two other countries have anti-dumping measures against Romania with respect to goods that may be similar to the subject goods or produced using the same equipment. Specifically, Mexico has a measure in force against Romanian carbon steel plate in sheets, and Thailand has a measure against Romanian flat rolled steel in coils and non-coils.^{Footnote 150}

[234] Based on information on the administrative record, the CBSA is unable to determine whether the measures imposed by Mexico and Thailand target products also produced by the only known Romanian producer of subject goods. Nonetheless, the CBSA notes that the ownership of the Romanian producer has undergone multiple changes since the CBSA's original finding was issued in 2004.^{Footnote 151} While a change in ownership does not absolve subsequent plant owners from the finding, the CBSA will place greater emphasis on measures taken against the current ownership of the producer.

[235] According to the World Trade Organization's database with respect to trade remedies, there have been no recent measures put in force with respect to steel plate from Romania. The CBSA notes that the Mexican finding has been in force since 2005 and the Thailand finding since 2003.^{Footnote 152} The CBSA's own finding has been in place for over 20 years and steel plate producers in Romania have yet to participate in proceedings since 2008.^{Footnote 153}

[236] In addition, in January 2007, the US rescinded an anti-dumping finding against Romania with regards to steel plate.^{Footnote 154} Romanian steel plate producers have not faced an anti-dumping finding in the U.S. since 2007, however, the CBSA acknowledges that the U.S. Section 232 tariffs, implemented in March 2018, have created trade barriers for steel exporters globally despite the absence of an anti-dumping finding.

[237] With the absence of recent anti-dumping measures in other jurisdictions with respect to the subject goods and the US rescinding its finding against Romanian steel plate in 2007, it is reasonable to determine that the expiry of the order is unlikely to result in the resumption of dumping of certain steel plate from Romania.

Determination regarding likelihood of continued or resumed dumping

[238] Based on evidence on the record in respect of: Romania's capacity and production of steel plate in a challenging European market, the lack of interest in the Canadian market, pricing data suggesting that Romania is likely not dumping in other markets, and the absence of anti-dumping measures against Romania by other countries in recent years, the CBSA determined that the expiry of the order is unlikely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of certain steel plate from Romania.