RB2 2022 ER: Certain concrete reinforcing bar
Statement of Reasons—expiry review determination

Product definition

[19] The goods subject to the finding under review are defined as:

[20] Exclusion:

Additional product information

[21] For further clarity, the subject goods include all hot-rolled deformed bar, rolled from billet steel, rail steel, axle steel, low alloy-steel and other alloy steel that does not comply with the definition of stainless steel.

[22] Uncoated rebar, sometimes referred to as black rebar, is generally used for projects in non-corrosive environments where anti-corrosion coatings are not required. On the other hand, anti-corrosion coated rebar are used in concrete projects that are subjected to corrosive environments, such as road salt. Examples of anti-corrosion coated rebar are epoxy or hot-dip galvanized rebar.

[23] The subject goods include uncoated rebar and rebar that has a coating or finish applied. Fabricated rebar products are generally engineered using Computer Automated Design programs, and are made to the customer’s unique project requirements. The fabricated rebar products are normally finished with either a protective or corrosion-resistant coating. Rebar that is simply cut-to-length is not considered to be a fabricated rebar product excluded from the definition of subject goods.

Parties contending that continued or resumed dumping is likely

[54] The three participating Canadian producers made representations in their ERQ responses and in their case brief supporting their position that the dumping of rebar is likely to continue or resume should the CITT’s finding expire. Therefore, they argued that the anti-dumping measure should remain in place.

[55] The main factors identified by the Canadian producers can be summarized as follows:

• Commodity nature of rebar
• International and domestic market conditions
• Low-priced competition from other countries
• Factors specific to subject countries
  • Weak domestic demand in subject countries
  • Excess capacity in subject countries
  • Export-oriented exporters
  • Propensity of exporters from subject countries to dump or inability to compete in Canada at non-dumped prices

Commodity nature of rebar

[56] The Canadian producers emphasized that rebar is a commodity product and is interchangeable regardless of whether it is produced in Canada, in the subject countries, or in non-subject countries. They submitted that because of this commodity nature, importers in Canada routinely purchase on the basis of price, and that exporters are therefore more likely to dump their goods by having to price aggressively to gain customers.^{Footnote 34}

International and domestic market conditions

Global excess capacity

[57] The Canadian producers submitted that the world continues to have significant excess steel production capacity and that steel production capacity continues to grow.^{Footnote 35} They also noted that the excess capacity for steel products extends to rebar production as well. Specifically, they argued that it is a crisis that pushes global steel producers to find new foreign markets in which to sell their steel products at depressed prices. Steel producers, including rebar producers, price aggressively in international markets to secure additional production volumes for their mills.^{Footnote 36}

[58] AMLPC and AltaSteel also emphasized that global steel overcapacity is a significant problem specific to rebar. They argued that the CRU^{Footnote 37} data shows a problem with respect to global production and consumption of rebar. Specifically, they noted that significant excess capacity for global rebar will continue beyond 2022, with capacity utilization rates remaining below 70% during that time.^{Footnote 38} They noted that “trends in global production and production capacity for rebar demonstrate that the structural imbalance existing in the steel market will remain a major destabilizing factor in the rebar market in the near term”.^{Footnote 39}

Global economic conditions

[59] The Canadian producers noted that overall international market conditions face a great deal of uncertainty in the near future as there is uneven economic recovery from the global COVID-19 pandemic.^{Footnote 40} Additionally, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has tempered the economic recovery outlook for many regions and caused instability in the global steel long products sector.^{Footnote 41} They noted that the global demand for rebar was also expected to be soft in the near future and cited CRU global demand forecasts for rebar which show very low demand growth forecasts beyond 2022.^{Footnote 42} They noted that when faced with the prospects of diminishing global rebar demand, producers will be forced to seek out new foreign markets to absorb excess production.

Domestic market conditions

[60] The Canadian producers submitted that the Canadian market for rebar remains strong and demand is expected to remain steady in the near future. This steady demand, coupled with relatively strong domestic prices for rebar will make Canada an attractive market for exports, particularly given the comparative instability in international and subject country market conditions. They argue that if the finding is rescinded, rebar imports from the subject countries would likely return to the Canadian market with its attractive pricing. As subject goods would have to compete with the existing low-priced imports, it is likely that the dumping of rebar from the subject countries would continue or resume absent the finding.^{Footnote 43}

Low-priced competition from other countries

[61] The Canadian producers noted the increased presence of import volumes of rebar from other non-subject countries into Canada during the POR. The Canadian producers noted the quickly increasing volume of these sources of rebar imports and emphasized that they were at a low average unit price, relative to the Canadian producers’ own domestic pricing averages.^{Footnote 44} The Canadian producers stressed that these low-priced imports of rebar, either from new sources or from countries covered by other rebar dumping findings were creating market pressure on prices of rebar in Canada and contended that imports of rebar from the subject countries would have to be priced at similarly low levels to regain market share.^{Footnote 45}

Factors specific to subject countries

Belarus

[62] The Canadian producers noted the poor economic conditions in Belarus. While Belarus had experienced moderate growth early in 2021, this economic trend had deteriorated and forecasts for 2022 were already expecting little economic growth in 2022.^{Footnote 46} The Canadian producers emphasized that, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the economic sanctions imposed by other countries have severely impacted the economy in Belarus. They cited an IMF forecast for Belarus expecting a 6.4% decline in GDP for 2022 as a result.^{Footnote 47}

[63] The Canadian producers showed that Canada had also imposed economic sanctions against Belarusian commodity products and withdrawn Belarus from the Most-Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff status, meaning that any subject rebar imported into Canada after March 2, 2022, is subject to a general tariff rate of 35%.^{Footnote 48} The Canadian producers argued that rebar exporters in Belarus will need to offer lower prices to Canada to offset this tariff impact on importers. They further explained that if the dumping finding expires, weak domestic economic conditions, as well as the economic recession in Belarus, will incentivize Belarusian rebar exporters to dump subject goods into Canada.^{Footnote 49}

[64] The Canadian producers noted the financial difficulties experienced by the major rebar producer in Belarus, OJSC Byelorussian Steel Works (BMZ). They also noted the apparent excess production capacity for BMZ.^{Footnote 50} AMLPC and AltaSteel further noted that there is regional excess rebar production capacity that is significant and that the regional rebar demand forecast is soft.^{Footnote 51} The Canadian producers emphasized that BMZ is very export-oriented as the company exports more than 80% of its steel products.^{Footnote 52} With countries imposing sanctions on Belarus in response to its support of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, they note that BMZ is running out of export markets that are free from sanctions. They note that in particular, the European Union (EU) imposing sanctions restricting steel goods from Belarus will severely impact BMZ and cause them to seek sales to other export markets.^{Footnote 53}

[65] Additionally, the Canadian producers noted that exporters of rebar in Belarus have a propensity to dump rebar in export markets. The Canadian producers identified anti-dumping findings in the EU, Ukraine and the USA against rebar from Belarus.^{Footnote 54} In addition to anti-dumping findings and economic sanctions, the Canadian producers also noted that rebar from Belarus is subject to safeguards in several jurisdictions.^{Footnote 55}

[66] Finally, the Canadian producers noted the lack of subject goods that had been shipped to Canada from Belarus since the finding has been in place, including none during the POR. They argued this demonstrates an inability for exporters of rebar in Belarus to sell in Canada without dumping.^{Footnote 56}

Chinese Taipei

[67] The Canadian producers noted that Chinese Taipei’s strong economic performance, despite the COVID-19 pandemic, over the last few years is owed to its vigorous exports and emphasized that many producers of steel in Chinese Taipei are export-oriented, including rebar producers.^{Footnote 57} While Chinese Taipei had experienced annual growth, they cited the IMF which reports that this economic trend in Chinese Taipei is forecasted to slow successively over the next few years, dropping from 6.3% in 2021, to 3.2% in 2022 and to 2.9% in 2023.^{Footnote 58}

[68] While Chinese Taipei’s export growth has had momentum and is expected to continue, AMLPC and AltaSteel emphasized that Chinese Taipei’s economic growth is not driven by domestic demand.^{Footnote 59} The Canadian producers noted that as Chinese Taipei faced its highest COVID-19 case count in the first quarter of 2022, weak domestic consumption reduced the GDP growth and that the building permits in Chinese Taipei, which consume rebar, decreased in February 2022 from the previous month by over 40% and are also lower than the levels in 2020 and 2021.^{Footnote 60} Furthermore, AMLPC and AltaSteel noted that the construction sector will not be a significant source of domestic demand for rebar as the planned projects in 2023 and 2024 are not rebar intensive.^{Footnote 61}

[69] AMLPC and AltaSteel noted that in 2021, in terms of the worldwide rebar production capacity, Chinese Taipei was highly ranked.^{Footnote 62} With this significant production capacity, the Canadian producers underlined that Chinese Taipei’s rebar exports have increased, from 2019 to 2021, by 63%. Regarding Chinese Taipei’s forecasted excess rebar capacity level in the next few years, they cited that the excess capacity is significant and almost the same size as the entire Canadian rebar market.^{Footnote 63} Faced with unfavourable domestic market conditions, the Canadian producers argued that Chinese Taipei producers will need to find export markets to offload their excess rebar production which points to a greater likelihood of resumed dumping to Canada should the finding be rescinded.^{Footnote 64}

[70] Additionally, Gerdau noted that exporters of rebar in Chinese Taipei have a propensity to dump rebar in export markets. It identified anti-dumping findings in Australia, Mexico and USA against rebar from Chinese Taipei. In addition to anti-dumping findings, Gerdau also noted that rebar from Chinese Taipei remains subject to EU and UK safeguard measures and to the USA’s Section 232 measure.^{Footnote 65} The Canadian producers argued that as a result of being export-oriented and facing various trade measures in other major markets, Chinese Taipei rebar producers will need to look to other unprotected markets to sustain plant throughput. As such, if the finding is rescinded, Canada will be one such market.

[71] Finally, Gerdau noted the substantial decline of subject goods that had been shipped to Canada from Chinese Taipei since the finding has been in place, to negligible volumes during the POR and argued that to re-enter the Canadian market, exporters from Chinese Taipei will need to offer dumped pricing.^{Footnote 66}

Hong Kong

[72] The Canadian producers noted that Hong Kong was already facing an economic contraction in 2019 and, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, Hong Kong’s economy further contracted with a GDP decline of 6.5% in 2020. Although Hong Kong’s economy recovered in 2021 with a GDP growth of 6.4%, they cited the IMF noting that Hong Kong’s projected economic growth is to slow dramatically to 0.5% in 2022 and only reach 2018 levels by mid-2023.^{Footnote 67}

[73] The Canadian producers noted that Hong Kong has only one rolling mill and the producer, Shiu Wing Steel Limited (Shiu Wing) is capable of producing annually over 750,000 MT of round and reinforcing bars.^{Footnote 68}

[74] The Canadian producers noted that from 2019 to 2021, Hong Kong’s construction industry, the main downstream sector for rebar, contracted on an annual basis.^{Footnote 69} AMLPC and AltaSteel contended that these contractions may be even more pronounced for commercial building type construction projects since most of Hong Kong’s investments in infrastructure projects relate to transportation, a sector that does not significantly use rebar.^{Footnote 70} Lastly, the Canadian producers noted that in early 2022, Hong Kong was subjected to a new strain of COVID-19 and contended that this outbreak in Hong Kong casts doubt on its forecasted growth and points to continued subdued construction and consequent rebar demand.^{Footnote 71} The Canadian producers argued that with the lack of projects in Hong Kong, rebar demand will be weak and will require Hong Kong rebar exporters to look to foreign markets and export subject goods at dumped prices in Canada should the finding be rescinded.^{Footnote 72}

[75] AMLPC and AltaSteel noted that in 2020, Hong Kong’s economy was the 2nd most export-oriented in the world.^{Footnote 73} Furthermore, the Canadian producers underlined that Hong Kong’s rebar market is also highly export-oriented as witnessed by the volumes increasing by over 81%, from 2019 to 2021, with exports of rebar going to China and Macao Special Administrative Region of China (Macao).^{Footnote 74} Lastly, Gerdau contended that the increase in exports over this period suggests that Hong Kong has replaced declining home market rebar sales with increased export sales to maintain throughput in its mill.^{Footnote 75}

[76] Additionally, Gerdau noted that rebar from Hong Kong remains subject to EU and UK safeguard measures and to the USA’s Section 232 measure.^{Footnote 76} The Canadian producers contended that if the finding is rescinded, as a result of Hong Kong’s strong export orientation for rebar coupled with weak rebar demand in Macao and China and various trade measures in other major markets, Canada will be an attractive market for exporters from Hong Kong given the lack of protection from its unfairly traded imports.^{Footnote 77}

[77] Finally, Gerdau noted that since the finding, Hong Kong was unable to export any subject goods to Canada from 2017, including the POR, and argued that this demonstrates an inability for exporters of rebar in Hong Kong to sell to Canada without dumping.^{Footnote 78}

Japan

[78] The Canadian producers underlined that Japan’s economy is weak. They noted that although Japan’s GDP recovered in 2021, growing by 1.6%, this increase was far below the global average of 6.1% and cited the IMF noting that Japan’s GDP is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023.^{Footnote 79} AMLPC and AltaSteel also pointed out that as forecasted, Japan’s economy contracted at the end of the first quarter of 2022.^{Footnote 80} Furthermore, Gerdau noted that though the IMF’s April 2022 report predicted another year of slow growth in Japan, as of April 2022, the rapid increase in COVID-19 cases in Japan makes this forecast uncertain.^{Footnote 81}

[79] AMLPC and AltaSteel noted that the lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Japan’s rebar consumption in 2020 and 2021 has been far more severe than Japan’s general steel consumption. Furthermore, they cited evidence indicating that the forecasted rebar demand growth in the coming years, is predicted to nearly come to a halt, slowing in 2023, before dropping even further in 2024.^{Footnote 82} AMLPC and AltaSteel cited Research and Markets which predicts growth of an average of 1.2% per year in Japan’s construction activity from 2022 to 2025 with large sources of this growth expected for sectors such as transport, renewable energy, and telecommunication projects.^{Footnote 83} They contended that Japan’s current and forecasted weak construction market will cause rebar mills in Japan to look for export opportunities in foreign markets and argued that if the finding is not renewed, Canada will become an open market for excess Japanese rebar production which will likely be at dumped prices given Japan’s weak market conditions.^{Footnote 84}

[80] AMLPC and AltaSteel noted that in 2021, in terms of the worldwide rebar production capacity, Japan was highly ranked.^{Footnote 85} They underlined that the utilization rates for rebar are very low and Japan’s excess capacity has been consistently high and is expected to remain high through 2024 with 11 million MT per year.^{Footnote 86} Furthermore, the Canadian producers underlined that Japan’s rebar exports nearly doubled in 2021 as compared to 2020, to reach just over 501,000 MT which suggests an increased reliance on rebar exports to fill unused capacity.^{Footnote 87} The Canadian producers argued that because of Japan’s simultaneous soft domestic demand for rebar and the forecasted drop of rebar demand from 2022 to 2024 in South Korea, its traditional export market, with excess capacity, rebar producers in Japan will look for export opportunities in foreign markets and likely export rebar at low prices.^{Footnote 88}

[81] Additionally, Gerdau noted that rebar from Japan remains subject to EU and UK safeguard measures and to the USA’s Section 232 measure and contended that these measures will lead Japan to focus on markets that are not restricted by trade measures, such as Canada, should the finding be rescinded.^{Footnote 89}

[82] Finally, AMLPC and AltaSteel cited evidence that the Japanese yen has depreciated in April 2022 to its lowest level since April 2002 and argued that a depreciating yen makes Canada more attractive to rebar exporters from Japan and increases the likelihood of resumed dumping in Canada^{Footnote 90} while Gerdau noted that not one single metric tonne of rebar from Japan entered Canada during the POR and argued that exporters from Japan therefore cannot compete at non-dumped prices.^{Footnote 91}

Portugal

[83] The Canadian producers noted that Portugal’s economy was adversely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and that its current recovery is dependent on government intervention and stimulus. They cited an IMF report noting that Portugal’s economy contracted by 8.4% in 2020 before recovering by 4.9% in 2021. Portugal’s projected economic growth is 4% in 2022, meaning the IMF expects Portugal to only recover to its 2019 economic levels by the end of this year.^{Footnote 92} Further, the Canadian producers noted poor construction industry forecasts in the near future and also highlighted weak regional demand for rebar.^{Footnote 93}

[84] The Canadian producers emphasized that there is significant excess production capacity for rebar in Portugal. They noted the ERQ response from SN Maia in Portugal showed excess production capacity in each year of the POR and that the capacity utilization rate for SN Maia was low.^{Footnote 94}

[85] The Canadian producers also noted that rebar producers in Portugal are very export-oriented. They cited the ERQ response from SN Maia and referenced SN Maia’s exported volumes of rebar in relation to its rebar production in each year of the POR.^{Footnote 95} They also noted weak demand for rebar in important export markets for SN Maia.^{Footnote 96} They further commented on SN Maia’s business practices when faced with declining export volumes to one market.^{Footnote 97} The Canadian producers argued that with expected weak domestic and export markets for rebar, exporters in Portugal would look to the Canadian market to make up lost export sales if the finding were allowed to expire.^{Footnote 98}

[86] Finally, the Canadian producers noted the low volume of subject goods that had been shipped to Canada from Portugal since the finding has been in place. The Canadian producers noted that there were only limited shipments of subject goods to Canada in 2019 and none during the rest of the POR. They argued this demonstrates that exporters from Portugal have been largely unable to make shipments into Canada and suggests they cannot compete with prevailing market prices without dumping.^{Footnote 99}

Spain

[87] The Canadian producers noted that Spain’s economy was very impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. They cited the IMF, noting that Spain’s economy declined 10.8% in 2020 before recovering by 5.1% in 2021.^{Footnote 100} They further underlined that Spain’s economy is not expected to fully recover to 2019 pre-pandemic levels until sometime in 2023. Additionally, they emphasized that Spain’s construction sector was particularly hard hit during the pandemic and declined 14.5% in 2020 and had seen only minimal recovery since.^{Footnote 101}

[88] The Canadian producers emphasized that there is significant excess production capacity for rebar in Spain.^{Footnote 102} They cited CRU data that showed very low capacity utilization rates for rebar and noted that the amount of excess production capacity for rebar in Spain is larger than the entire apparent Canadian market for rebar.^{Footnote 103} The Canadian producers argued that Spanish producers of rebar have an incentive to find markets to export to maintain production levels. They emphasized that rebar producers in Spain have more than enough capacity to overwhelm the Canadian market if the finding is rescinded.^{Footnote 104}

[89] The Canadian producers also noted that rebar producers in Spain are very export-oriented. They underlined that rebar producers in Spain exported a significant amount of their production during the POR.^{Footnote 105} They also noted weak demand for rebar in important export markets for Spanish rebar producers.^{Footnote 106}

[90] Finally, the Canadian producers noted the low volume of subject goods that had been shipped to Canada from Spain since the finding has been in place. The Canadian producers noted that there was only a very low volume of subject goods shipped to Canada in 2019 and 2020, and none during 2021. They argued this demonstrates that exporters from Spain have been largely unable to make shipments into Canada and suggests they cannot compete at prevailing market prices without dumping.^{Footnote 107}

Parties contending that resumed or continued dumping is unlikely

[91] Three importers, 11625748 Canada, JJM and LMS made representations as part of their responses to the ERQ.^{Footnote 108} However, due to confidentiality reasons, the representations made by 11625748 Canada cannot be disclosed. The main comments, factors and arguments made by the other two importers can be summarized as follows:

• The subject countries in Rebar 2 did not have an impact on the Canadian market during the period of review
• All foreign mills are producing at or near capacity to meet current demand levels
• The producers will not dump rebar into Canada if dumping is calculated at the time of purchase
• Importers and exporters realize that purchases for export to Canada need to be above both normal values and domestic pricing
• It is difficult to gauge whether an exporter will resume dumping in light of the refusal by CBSA to accept requests for normal value reviews from exporters who do not have specific normal values

[92] None of the importers provided specific evidence in support of their position that the expiry of the CITT’s finding is unlikely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of the subject goods nor they did provide case briefs or reply submissions.

Belarus

[104] The CBSA did not receive any ERQ responses, case briefs, or reply submissions from exporters in Belarus. The CBSA therefore relied on information submitted by participating parties, as well as other information on the record, in considering whether the dumping of subject goods from Belarus is likely to resume or continue if the finding were to expire.

[105] Belarus is a relatively small steel producing country with a total steel making capacity of 3 million MT.^{Footnote 122} The majority of this production capacity is with one producer, BMZ. BMZ only produces steel long products, including subject goods rebar, and non-subject steel billet, round bar, wire rod and seamless pipes.^{Footnote 123} BMZ is the only producer of rebar in Belarus. In 2021, BMZ produced approximately 2.4 million MT of steel products^{Footnote 124} and the Canadian producers underlined the appreciable amount of production capacity allocated to rebar by BMZ.^{Footnote 125}

[106] With respect to rebar production and capacity, information was provided by the Canadian producers from CRU.^{Footnote 126} However, while information was not specific to Belarus, it shows capacity and production levels for the “Other CIS” region. The “Other CIS” region consists of Belarus and three other countries (Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan).^{Footnote 127} The Canadian producers note that Belarus’ rebar production capacity accounts for the majority of this region and can therefore be used as a proxy to forecast Belarusian rebar trends.^{Footnote 128}

[107] The rebar production capacity shows no recent or forecasted changes. Rebar production levels increased during the 2019-2021 period, including during the COVID-19 pandemic. Capacity utilization rates improved during the same period. Both production and capacity utilization rates are forecasted to remain high during 2022 and 2023, however there is now additional uncertainty concerning the strengths of these forecasts given the instability in the region caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

[108] With respect to domestic market conditions, information on the record shows very weak and declining economic conditions in Belarus. In its October 2021 report, the IMF projected that in 2022, despite the world overall experiencing substantial GDP growth, Belarus’ economy was set to grow by 0.5%, while its consumer index was expected to balloon by 8.3%.^{Footnote 129} Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, economic conditions in Belarus have deteriorated and the IMF is now forecasting that the economy in Belarus will be in a recession and decline by 6.4% in 2022.^{Footnote 130} Further, Belarus has been experiencing declines in its construction sector, a key user of steel products and rebar domestically. The construction sector in Belarus experienced a 12.2% decline in gross value in 2021.^{Footnote 131} This decline has continued into 2022, with statistics published by the government of Belarus showing the construction industry contracted by 10.1% in January 2022 and further declined by 8.1% in February.^{Footnote 132} It is likely that the declining domestic construction sector will cause BMZ to look to export markets to maintain production and sales levels.

[109] Information concerning the financial performance of the only rebar producer in Belarus, BMZ, also demonstrates declining conditions. BMZ was reported to be in severe financial difficulty in 2021.^{Footnote 133} The government of Belarus intervened with a number of measures to assist the company in meeting its financial debt obligations. Despite these intervention measures by the government of Belarus, from January-September 2021, BMZ reported a net profit of only BYN 45 thousand (or US$13,000).^{Footnote 134}

[110] Given the financial difficulties for BMZ amid weakening domestic demand, it is likely that they will seek to recoup sales and revenue in export markets. However, BMZ is already very export-oriented, exporting over 80% of their sales volume.^{Footnote 135} The main export market for BMZ is Europe, with Poland and Latvia cited as their two most important export countries.^{Footnote 136} In 2020 and 2021, BMZ experienced strong export sales growth, with exports to Europe sharply increasing.^{Footnote 137} However, since Belarus supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the country has been subject to an increasing number of sanctions from other countries. Most notably, in March 2022, the EU prohibited the purchase and importation of all steel products originating in Belarus.^{Footnote 138} With the loss of their most important export market, combined with already weak financial performance and poor domestic market conditions for rebar, BMZ will be highly motivated to find other export markets in which to sell rebar.

[111] While there may be strong incentive for BMZ to seek additional export sales, they have less access to markets that are free of tariffs or import restrictions. Even prior to the above-noted EU sanctions, rebar from Belarus was already subject to anti-dumping measures in the EU.^{Footnote 139} Additionally, rebar from Belarus is covered by anti-dumping measures in the USA and in Ukraine.^{Footnote 140} This demonstrates the restricted access to other export markets that exporters of rebar from Belarus will continue to face in the near future, and also indicates a propensity to dump rebar by Belarussian exporters.

[112] During the POR, there were no imports of subject goods from Belarus to Canada. The absence of imports of subject goods suggests an inability on behalf of exporters of rebar in Belarus to compete in Canada at non-dumped prices.

[113] Additionally, countries including Canada have revoked MFN tariff status from Belarus.^{Footnote 141} This means that Canada has a duty rate of 35% in place on all rebar from Belarus while this status remains. Consequently, exporters of rebar from Belarus will need to offer much lower prices to Canada in order to secure any sales. Exporters of rebar from Belarus will therefore be more likely to dump rebar in the future while the non-MFN status remains in effect.

Determination regarding likelihood of continued or resumed dumping for Belarus

[114] Based on the evidence on the record in respect of: the commodity nature of rebar; excess global production capacity and weakening global demand for rebar; weakening economic growth and demand for rebar in Belarus; the restricted access to export markets due to trade restrictions imposed by other export markets; the poor financial performance for the only rebar producer in Belarus; the anti-dumping measures in place in other jurisdictions against rebar that demonstrate that rebar exporters in Belarus have a propensity to dump into export markets; and the inability of rebar exporters in Belarus to compete in Canada at non-dumped prices, the CBSA determined that the expiry of the finding is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping into Canada of rebar from Belarus.

Chinese taipei

[115] The CBSA did not receive any ERQ responses, case briefs, or reply submissions from exporters in Chinese Taipei. The CBSA therefore relied on information submitted by participating parties, as well as other information on the record, in considering whether the dumping of subject goods from Chinese Taipei is likely to resume or continue if the finding were to expire.

[116] Chinese Taipei is a relatively small geographic area with industries that produce far more than its relatively small economy can consume and therefore relies heavily on exports. Information on the record identified four rebar producers in Chinese Taipei, namely, Feng Hsin, Lo-Toun Steel and Iron Works, Co., Ltd., Power Steel Co., Ltd. and Tung Ho Steel Enterprise Corp. (Tung Ho).^{Footnote 142} As indicated previously, subject goods exported by Feng Hsin to Canada were excluded from the CITT’s finding of May 3, 2017.

[117] With respect to rebar production and capacity, information was provided by the Canadian producers from CRU.^{Footnote 143} The rebar production capacity shows a decrease from 2019 to 2020 and subsequently no recent or forecasted changes in rebar production capacity. After rebar production levels increase annually from 2019 to 2021, production is forecasted to decrease in 2022 and subsequently is expected to gradually recover at a level near that of the peak in 2021. Although the utilization rates forecasted are to remain relatively high, the expected excess capacity starting after 2022 still represents substantial levels of unused rebar production capacity. This forecasted excess capacity is significant when compared to the size of entire apparent Canadian market for rebar.^{Footnote 144}

[118] The IMF reports that Chinese Taipei’s GDP grew 3.1% in 2019, 3.4% in 2020 and 6.3% in 2021. Chinese Taipei’s strong economic performance despite the COVID-19 pandemic is owed to the momentum of export growth. Over the next few years, the GDP growth is expected to slow successively, dropping to 3.2% in 2022 and to 2.9% in 2023.^{Footnote 145} With respect to domestic market conditions in Chinese Taipei, information on the record indicates that domestic consumption was relatively weak with no improvement in the near future due to the prolonged effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation and anticipated rising interest rates.^{Footnote 146}

[119] Information obtained from CRU shows the rebar consumption and demand forecasts in Chinese Taipei.^{Footnote 147} The expected demand for rebar in Chinese Taipei is to significantly decline in 2022 from 2021 and subsequently is expected to annually increase to attain a level which is well below that of the peak in 2021. While the construction sector is expected to see annual growth in the next few years, the expected recovery will be focussed on projects pertaining to energy, digital and transportation, which are not rebar intensive. Furthermore, building permits in Chinese Taipei in February 2022 decreased by 41% from January 2022 and are lower than the levels in February 2020 and February 2021.^{Footnote 148} It is likely that this projected decline in domestic demand for rebar will cause producers in Chinese Taipei to look to export markets to maintain the production and sales levels.

[120] With respect to exports of rebar from Chinese Taipei, data from UN Comtrade shows that exports have increased by 63% from 2019 to 2021.^{Footnote 149} Rebar producers in Chinese Taipei are very export-oriented. In terms of export levels in the coming years, Chinese Taipei’s main export markets for rebar, South Korea and Australia, are projected to remain relatively flat from 2022 to 2024.^{Footnote 150} With weak rebar demand in their domestic and traditional export markets, producers in Chinese Taipei will turn to other export markets for sales of rebar.

[121] While there may be strong incentives for rebar exporters in Chinese Taipei to seek additional export sales, they have less access to markets that are free of tariffs or import restrictions. Rebar from Chinese Taipei remains subject to EU and UK safeguard measures and to the USA’s Section 232 measure. Even prior to the above-noted measures, rebar from Chinese Taipei was subject to anti-dumping measures in Mexico and USA. Additionally, Australia had anti-dumping findings on rebar from Chinese Taipei.^{Footnote 151} These trade measures demonstrate the restricted access to other export markets that exporters of rebar from Chinese Taipei will continue to face in the near future, and also indicates a propensity to dump rebar by exporters in Chinese Taipei.

[122] During the POR, imports of subject goods into Canada from Chinese Taipei were minimal, and SIMA duties were assessed in 2021.^{Footnote 152} The CBSA notes that in its last re-investigation on Rebar 2 which concluded on March 4, 2018, only one exporter, Tung Ho was issued normal values and all other exports from Chinese Taipei^{Footnote 153} are subject to an anti-dumping duty equal to 108.5% of the export price. The near total absence of imports of subject goods suggests an inability on behalf of Chinese Taipei’s rebar exporters to compete in Canada at non-dumped prices.

Determination regarding likelihood of continued or resumed dumping for Chinese Taipei

[123] Based on the evidence on the record in respect of: the commodity nature of rebar; excess global production capacity and weakening global demand for rebar; slowing economic conditions in Chinese Taipei; significant excess rebar production capacity in Chinese Taipei; the export orientation of rebar producers in Chinese Taipei; the restricted access to export markets due to trade restrictions imposed by other jurisdictions; the anti-dumping measures in place in other countries against rebar that demonstrate that rebar exporters in Chinese Taipei have a propensity to dump into export markets; and the inability of rebar exporters in Chinese Taipei to compete in Canada at non-dumped prices, the CBSA determined that the expiry of the finding is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping into Canada of rebar from Chinese Taipei.

Hong kong

[124] The CBSA did not receive any ERQ responses, case briefs, or reply submissions from exporters in Hong Kong. The CBSA therefore relied on information submitted by participating parties, as well as other information on the record, in considering whether the dumping of subject goods from Hong Kong is likely to resume or continue if the finding were to expire.

[125] Hong Kong is very small in terms of steel production with a total steel making capacity of just over 750,000 MT. All of this production capacity is with one producer, Shiu Wing Steel Limited (Shiu Wing). At its rolling mill, Shiu Wing only produces steel long products, including subject goods rebar.^{Footnote 154}

[126] With respect to the domestic market in Hong Kong, economic conditions started improving in 2021 following six consecutive quarters of recession. In 2019, Hong Kong’s GDP contracted by 1.7% and, with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the GDP further contracted sharply by 6.5%. Supported largely by exports, Hong Kong’s economy recovered, in 2021, with GDP growth of 6.4% but remained below 2018 levels. The IMF expects that growth will stall in 2022, and forecasts Hong Kong’s GDP growth to be only 0.5%.^{Footnote 155} While the 2021 recovery saw a sharp increase, Hong Kong’s construction industry, the main downstream sector for rebar, has not benefited from the recovery and continued to contract in 2021, with each quarter performing worse that the same period in 2020. Additionally, annual growth in the construction sector is forecasted to slow to 2% between 2022 and 2025.^{Footnote 156}

[127] While the expected domestic market situation for rebar in Hong Kong in the next few years is likely to see low growth, the domestic rebar producer in Hong Kong now faces additional competition in its domestic market. Cargoes of rebar from Vietnam, India and Qatar were scheduled for delivery in Hong Kong in early 2022 and other countries such as China and Vietnam have recently made offers to buyers of rebar in Hong Kong.^{Footnote 157} Previously, Hong Kong had become Turkey’s third largest rebar export destination.^{Footnote 158} Faced with weak rebar demand and additional rebar competition in its domestic market, to maintain production levels in its mill, the sole domestic producer of rebar in Hong Kong will continue to seek sales in export markets.

[128] With respect to exports of rebar from Hong Kong, data from UN Comtrade shows that exports have increased by over 80% from 2019 to 2021.^{Footnote 159} During the POR, Shiu Wing relied heavily on exports of rebar which represented annually an increasingly larger portion of its production levels. In terms of export levels in the coming years, Hong Kong’s main export markets for rebar, Macao and China, are projected to remain both slow or decline from 2022 to 2024.^{Footnote 160} With weak demand and fierce competition in its domestic market for rebar, and faced with the uncertainty in their main export markets, exporters of rebar in Hong Kong will look to additional export markets for sales opportunities.

[129] While there may be strong incentives for rebar exporters in Hong Kong to seek additional export sales, they have less access to markets that are free of tariffs or import restrictions. Rebar from Hong Kong remains subject to EU and UK safeguard measures and to the USA’s Section 232 measure. These trade measures demonstrate the restricted access to other export markets that exporters of rebar from Hong Kong will continue to face in the near future, and would make the Canadian market very attractive to exporters in Hong Kong if the finding were allowed to expire.

[130] During the POR, there were no imports of subject goods into Canada from Hong Kong. The CBSA notes that in its last re-investigation on Rebar 2 which concluded on March 4, 2018, no exporter had been issued normal values and exports from Hong Kong are subject to an anti-dumping duty equal to 108.5% of the export price. The absence of imports of subject goods suggests an inability on behalf of exporters of rebar in Hong Kong to compete in Canada at non-dumped prices.

Determination regarding likelihood of continued or resumed dumping for Hong Kong

[131] Based on the evidence on the record in respect of: the commodity nature of rebar; excess global production capacity and weakening global demand for rebar; declining economic conditions and weak rebar demand in Hong Kong; increasing domestic market competition for rebar sales in Hong Kong; the export orientation of the rebar producer in Hong Kong; the restricted access to export markets due to trade restrictions imposed by other jurisdictions; and the inability of rebar exporters in Hong Kong to compete in Canada at non-dumped prices, the CBSA determined that the expiry of the finding is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping into Canada of rebar from Hong Kong.

Japan

[132] The CBSA did not receive any ERQ responses, case briefs, or reply submissions from exporters in Japan. The CBSA therefore relied on information submitted by participating parties, as well as other information on the record, in considering whether the dumping of subject goods from Japan is likely to resume or continue if the finding were to expire.

[133] In 2021, Japan was very highly ranked in terms of the world’s largest steel producing country.^{Footnote 161} From 2020 to 2021, Japan’s crude steel production increased by 15.7%.^{Footnote 162} With its 29.8 million MT of exported steel products in 2020, Japan was ranked the world’s 3rd largest steel exporting country.^{Footnote 163}

[134] Information on the record identified four rebar producers in Japan, namely, Chiyoda- Steel Co., Ltd., Jonan Steel Corporation, Kyoei Steel Ltd. and SANKO SEIKO Co., Ltd.^{Footnote 164} In 2021, in terms of rebar production capacity and production of rebar, Japan was highly ranked globally in the world.^{Footnote 165}

[135] With respect to rebar production and capacity, information was provided by the Canadian producers from CRU.^{Footnote 166} The rebar production capacity shows no recent or forecasted changes. After rebar production fell in 2020 and 2021 as compared to the 2019 level, the production forecasted for 2022 and beyond is anticipated to recover annually at levels slightly exceeding that of 2019. Although, the utilization rate peaked in 2019 and the forecasted levels from 2022 to 2024 are to remain at the peak level, this expected low utilization rate still leaves significant levels of unused rebar production capacity. The excess capacity expected in 2022 and the years beyond is still seven time as large as the entire apparent Canadian market for rebar^{Footnote 167} Therefore, producers of rebar in Japan will be likely to seek additional export sales of rebar to boost their production levels.

[136] With respect to domestic market conditions in Japan, information on the record indicates relatively slow economic conditions. Even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy in Japan was weak with growth of 0.6% in 2018 and of 0.2% in 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic caused Japan’s GDP to contract by 4.8% in 2020 with a partial slow recovery in 2021, with a growth of 1.6%, as compared to the global average of 6.1%. While the economy is expected to continue its recovery with projected growth of 2.4% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2024, it is not expected to fully recover to 2019 levels.^{Footnote 168}

[137] Information obtained from CRU shows the rebar consumption and demand forecasts in Japan.^{Footnote 169} The expected demand for rebar in Japan is expected to recover in 2022 at the level observed in 2019 and subsequently have no growth in the other two projected years. While Japan’s construction activity, from 2022 to 2025, is predicted to grow at an average of 1.2% per year, the large sources of this growth is expected from non-rebar consuming construction sectors such as transport, renewable energy, and telecommunication projects.^{Footnote 170} With the bottoming out of the rebar demand in Japan as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic coupled with the stagnant growth in the coming years, rebar producers in Japan will look to export markets to increase their production and sales levels.

[138] With respect to exports of rebar from Japan, data from UN Comtrade shows that exports have increased by over 116% from 2019 to 2021.^{Footnote 171} Rebar producers in Japan are export-oriented. In terms of export levels in the coming years, the demand growth for rebar in South Korea, Japan’s main export market, is projected to drop from 2022 to 2024.^{Footnote 172} With a large hit to its traditional export market in the foreseeable future, the domestic producers of rebar in Japan will seek new export market sales to maintain production levels in their rebar mills.

[139] While there may be strong incentives for rebar exporters in Japan to seek additional export sales, they have less access to markets that are free of tariffs or import restrictions. Rebar from Japan remains subject to EU and UK safeguard measures and to the USA’s Section 232 measure. These trade measures demonstrate the restricted access to other export markets that exporters of rebar from Japan will continue to face in the near future, and would lead exporters of rebar in Japan to focus on the Canadian market if the finding were allowed to expire.

[140] During the POR, there were no imports of subject goods into Canada from Japan. The CBSA notes that in its last re-investigation on Rebar 2 which concluded on March 4, 2018, no exporter had been issued normal values and exports from Japan are subject to an anti-dumping duty equal to 108.5% of the export price. The absence of imports of subject goods suggests an inability on behalf of exporters of rebar in Japan to compete in Canada at non-dumped prices.

Determination regarding likelihood of continued or resumed dumping for Japan

[141] Based on the evidence on the record in respect of: the commodity nature of rebar; excess global production capacity and weakening global demand for rebar; limited economic growth and weak rebar demand in Japan; significant excess rebar production capacity in Japan; the export orientation of the rebar producers in Japan; the restricted access to export markets due to trade restrictions imposed by other jurisdictions; and the inability of rebar exporters in Japan to compete in Canada at non-dumped prices, the CBSA determined that the expiry of the finding is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping into Canada of rebar from Japan.

Portugal

[142] The CBSA received an ERQ response from one exporter of rebar in Portugal. The CBSA relied on the information submitted by this exporter, the Canadian producers as well as other information on the record, for the purposes of the expiry review investigation with respect to Portugal. No case briefs or reply submissions from exporters in Portugal were received.

[143] The exporter in Portugal that provided a response to the ERQ was SN Maia, which is part of the Megasa Group of companies owned by the Bipadosa Group. This exporter first received normal values at the conclusion of the original dumping finding in May 2017, and has participated in every CBSA proceedings since. SN Maia currently has prospective normal values in effect.^{Footnote 173}

[144] Portugal is a relatively small steel producing country. In 2020, Portugal produced 2.2 million MT of crude steel, which ranked as the 43rd largest country in the world for steelmaking.^{Footnote 174} This was a modest increase in production from the 2.0 million MT in 2019.^{Footnote 175} SN Maia’s ERQ response indicates that the Megasa Group can produce rebar at both of its facilities in Portugal, the other being SN Seixal.^{Footnote 176}

[145] With respect to rebar production and capacity, information on the record was provided by the participating exporter, SN Maia.^{Footnote 177} The ERQ response from SN Maia did not provide the production capacity at the facility of SN Seixal. With respect to the reported production and capacity utilization rate for rebar, information provided by SN Maia showed the same production capacity throughout the POR. All three years of the POR showed excess rebar production capacity at SN Maia, which is significant excess capacity relative to the size of the apparent Canadian market for rebar.^{Footnote 178} With low utilization rates and high levels of excess production capacity, SN Maia is very likely to seek additional sales in export markets.

[146] With respect to the domestic market in Portugal, information on the record indicates improving economic conditions following sharp declines during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, Portugal’s GDP fell 8.4%.^{Footnote 179} In 2021, Portugal’s GDP grew by 4.8%, while not fully recovering from the 2020 declines.^{Footnote 180} In 2022, GDP was forecast to grow again by 4.0%, however, this means that by the end of 2022 the Portuguese economy will have just recovered to 2019 levels. Additionally, the OECD noted in a December 2021 economic survey of Portugal, that the “recovery is fraught with risks”.^{Footnote 181} While the recovery has seen sharp increases, it has affected sectors of the economy differently, so there has been unevenness to the economic recovery within different sectors and uncertainty remains.^{Footnote 182} Of note is that the construction sector, a heavy user of rebar, has benefited from the economic recovery^{Footnote 183} and is forecasted to have moderate growth going forward.^{Footnote 184}

[147] While the domestic market situation for rebar in Portugal has the potential to see modest improvements, domestic market sales are not a major proportion of the sales of rebar for the main producer SN Maia.^{Footnote 185} Additionally, increased domestic sales would need to be quite significant to alleviate SN Maia’s excess production capacity.^{Footnote 186} Therefore, even with modestly improving domestic market conditions for rebar, SN Maia will continue to heavily rely on its export markets for rebar sales.

[148] The ERQ response from SN Maia shows significant sales of rebar occurred within the European markets in 2021. The top four export markets listed by SN Maia in their ERQ response were the UK, USA, Spain, and Ireland.^{Footnote 187}

[149] Information obtained from CRU shows the rebar consumption and demand forecasts in Europe.^{Footnote 188} European markets, other than the UK, are expecting significant contractions in rebar demand in 2022. Forecast demand growth throughout Europe is expected to remain weak in 2023 and 2024, with two of SN Maia’s main export markets, Spain and the UK, expected to have very soft demand growth for rebar.

[150] Additionally, rebar exporters in Portugal have less access to markets that are free of tariffs or import restrictions, including some of SN Maia’s top export markets. Information provided by the Canadian producers shows that rebar from Portugal remains subject to tariff-rate quotas (TRQ) systems in both the UK safeguard measure and the USA Section 232 measure.^{Footnote 189} The UK and USA are two of SN Maia’s main export markets and the impact of these measures can be observed on SN Maia’s export sales.^{Footnote 190}

[151] The impact of the ongoing TRQ measures imposed by the UK and USA on export sales of SN Maia is notable in their sales volumes to those two countries. At the same time, SN Maia was able to increase their sales to Spain. However, as noted above, the rebar market in Spain is forecast to contract in 2022 and have limited recovery in the near future. Since SN Maia already has significant excess production capacity and they are facing ongoing difficulties in their main export markets, including overall in Europe, it is quite likely that they will be seeking additional sales in other export markets for rebar in the next few years. This would make the Canadian market very attractive to rebar exporters in Portugal if the finding were allowed to expire.

[152] In terms of shipments of subject goods to Canada during the POR, there were only imports of subject goods from Portugal in 2019 and the volume was relatively small in terms of the apparent Canadian market. During 2020 and 2021, importers in Canada sourced rebar from low-priced exporters covered by the Rebar 1, Rebar 3 and Rebar 4 findings. During 2020 and 2021, SN Maia had excess production capacity available, was export-oriented and had prospective normal values in effect. The limited amount of imports of subject goods during the POR indicates an inability for SN Maia to compete in Canada with prospective normal values and secure sales in Canada at non-dumped prices. Given the commodity nature of rebar, if the finding were allowed to expire, exporters of rebar in Portugal would be compelled to offer low-priced rebar competitive with other import sources. This increases the likelihood of continued or resumed dumping in the absence of the finding.

Determination regarding likelihood of continued or resumed dumping for Portugal

[153] Based on the evidence on the record in respect of: the commodity nature of rebar; excess global production capacity and weakening global demand for rebar; limited economic growth in Portugal’s small domestic market for rebar; weakening demand for rebar in important export markets for exporters of rebar; significant excess rebar production capacity; the export orientation of rebar producers in Portugal; the restricted access to important export markets due to trade restrictions imposed by other countries; and the inability of rebar exporters in Portugal to compete in Canada at non-dumped prices, the CBSA determined that the expiry of the finding is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping into Canada of rebar from Portugal.

Spain

[154] The CBSA did not receive any ERQ responses, case briefs, or reply submissions from exporters in Spain. The CBSA therefore relied on information submitted by participating parties, as well as other information on the record, in considering whether the dumping of subject goods from Spain is likely to resume or continue if the finding were to expire.

[155] In 2021, Spain was highly ranked in terms of the world’s largest steel producing countries.^{Footnote 191} From 2020 to 2021, Spain’s crude steel production increased by 27.7%.^{Footnote 192} Spain is both a large exporter and importer of steel products, exporting 7.9 million MT of steel in 2020 while importing 8.7 million MT of steel the same year.^{Footnote 193}

[156] With respect to rebar production and capacity, information was provided by the Canadian producers from CRU.^{Footnote 194} The rebar production capacity shows no recent or forecasted changes in rebar production capacity. After rebar production levels fell in 2020, the level of production in 2021 rose and is forecasted for 2022 and beyond to exhibit modest growth. However, the capacity utilization rates experienced in 2021 and forecasted for 2022 and 2023 are very low. This leaves significant levels of unused rebar production capacity available. The excess capacity expected in 2022 is larger than the entire apparent Canadian market for rebar.^{Footnote 195} Therefore, exporters of rebar in Spain will be likely to seek additional export sales of rebar to boost their production levels.

[157] With respect to domestic market conditions in Spain, information on the record indicates relatively poor economic conditions. The economy in Spain was particularly hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused GDP to decline by 10.8% in 2020.^{Footnote 196} While the economy has seen some recovery with expected growth of 5.1% in 2021 and 4.8% in 2022, it is not expected to fully recover to 2019 levels until some time in the year 2023.^{Footnote 197} Spain’s construction industry was also severely impacted by the pandemic and saw a 14.5% contraction in 2020, with only 0.5% growth in 2021.^{Footnote 198} It is likely that the declining domestic construction sector will cause Spanish rebar producers to look to export markets to maintain production and sales levels.

[158] Information obtained from CRU shows the rebar consumption and demand forecasts in Spain.^{Footnote 199} The demand for rebar in Spain fluctuated greatly with the impacts to the economy and construction sector. After a significant contraction in 2020, demand for rebar rebounded strongly in 2021. However, demand for rebar is forecasted to decline again in 2022 and then shows limited growth afterwards. This again indicates a likelihood that Spanish rebar producers will look to export markets to maintain production and sales levels.

[159] Rebar producers in Spain are already very export-oriented. In 2021, Spain was highly ranked in terms of the world’s largest rebar exporting countries.^{Footnote 200} Between 2019 and 2021, rebar producers in Spain exported significant volumes of their production of rebar.^{Footnote 201} An important export market for Spanish rebar producers is France.^{Footnote 202} France’s demand for rebar is expected to significantly decline in 2022, and only have a minimal growth in 2023-2024.^{Footnote 203} With this important export market struggling, rebar producers in Spain will be more likely to seek sales in other export markets.

[160] Rebar exporters in Spain have less access to markets that are free of tariffs or import restrictions. Information provided by the Canadian producers shows that rebar from Spain remains subject to TRQ systems in both the UK safeguard measure and the USA Section 232 measure.^{Footnote 204} Additionally, there are anti-dumping findings against rebar from Spain in Australia, the Dominican Republic and the USA. Along with the TRQ measures currently in place, rebar producers in Spain are encountering trade restrictions that are having a real impact on their ability to sell in export markets.^{Footnote 205} This would make the Canadian market very attractive to rebar producers in Spain if the finding were allowed to expire. Additionally, the other anti-dumping findings against rebar from Spain demonstrate a propensity to dump rebar in export markets by Spanish rebar exporters.

[161] In terms of shipments of subject goods to Canada during the POR, there were only imports of subject goods from Spain in 2019 and 2020 and the volumes were small in terms of the apparent Canadian market, with SIMA duties being assessed in both years.^{Footnote 206} During 2020 and 2021, importers in Canada sourced rebar from low-priced exporters covered by the Rebar 1, Rebar 3 and Rebar 4 findings. During 2020 and 2021, rebar producers in Spain had large amounts of excess production capacity available and were export-oriented. The limited amount of imports of subject goods during the POR, and the application of anti-dumping duty to the importations that did occur, both indicate an inability for rebar exporters in Spain to compete in Canada without dumping. Given the commodity nature of rebar, if the finding were allowed to expire, exporters of rebar in Spain would be compelled to offer low-priced rebar competitive with other import sources. This would increase the likelihood of continued or resumed dumping in the absence of the finding.

Determination regarding likelihood of continued or resumed dumping for Spain

[162] Based on the evidence on the record in respect of: the commodity nature of rebar; excess global production capacity and weakening global demand for rebar; weakening economic growth and a declining construction sector in Spain; Spain’s significant excess rebar production capacity; the export orientation of Spanish rebar producers; the restricted access to export markets due to trade restrictions imposed by other countries; the anti-dumping measures in other countries against rebar that demonstrate that rebar exporters in Spain have a propensity to dump into export markets; and the inability of rebar exporters in Spain to compete in Canada at non-dumped prices, the CBSA determined that the expiry of the finding is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping into Canada of rebar from Spain.