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OTTAWA, September 7, 2007

RR-2007-001
4366-33

STATEMENT OF REASONS

Concerning a determination under paragraph 76.03(7)(a) of the
Special Import Measures Act regarding

CERTAIN HOT-ROLLED STEEL PLATE ORIGINATING IN OR EXPORTED
FROM THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA, THE REPUBLIC OF
SOUTH AFRICA AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION



DECISION

On August 23, 2007, pursuant to paragraph 76.03(7)(a) of the Special Import Measures Act, the President of the Canada Border Services Agency determined that the expiry of the order made by the Canadian International Trade Tribunal on January 10, 2003, in Expiry Review No. RR-2001-006, concerning certain hot-rolled steel plate originating in or exported from the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of South Africa and the Russian Federation was likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of the goods into Canada.



TABLE OF CONTENTS



SUMMARY

  1. On April 25, 2007, the Canadian International Trade Tribunal (Tribunal ) issued a Notice of Expiry Review with respect to its order made on January 10, 2003, in Expiry Review No. RR-2001-006, on certain hot-rolled steel plate from the People’s Republic of China (China), the Republic of South Africa (South Africa) and the Russian Federation (Russia). As a result, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) initiated, on April 26, 2007, an investigation to determine whether the expiry of the order is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of the goods into Canada.

  2. The Canadian producers of certain hot-rolled steel plate, namely Algoma Steel Inc. (Algoma) and Ipsco Inc. (Ipsco), provided information in support of their position that, if current anti-dumping measures against China, South Africa and Russia (Named Countries) expire, the resumption or continuation of dumping of certain hot-rolled steel plate from these Named Countries is likely.

  3. Two exporters, Angang Steel Company Ltd. (Ansteel) and Baosteel Group Corporation (Baosteel), provided a response to their respective Expiry Review Questionnaire (ERQ).

  4. Analysis of evidence on the record shows that numerous producers of certain hot rolled steel plate in the Named Countries are experiencing the effects of global oversupply; have excess production capacity and insufficient domestic demand ; are subject to anti-dumping measures in several countries, indicating a propensity to dump; have recently sold into worldwide export markets at prices which suggest they continue to dump; and have not demonstrated an ability to compete in Canada at non-dumped prices despite obtaining normal values.

  5. For the foregoing reasons, the President of the CBSA (President), having considered the relevant information on the record, determined on August 23, 2007, under paragraph 76.03(7)(a) of the Special Import Measures Act (SIMA) that the expiry of the order made by the Tribunal on January 10, 2003, concerning certain hot-rolled steel plate, originating in or exported from China, South Africa and Russia was likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of the goods into Canada.

BACKGROUND

  1. On March 6, 2007, the Tribunal issued a notice1 concerning the upcoming expiry of its order. Based on the available information and the representations submitted by the interested parties, the Tribunal decided that a review of the order was warranted.

  2. On April 25, 2007, the Tribunal , pursuant to subsection 76.03(3) of SIMA, initiated an expiry review of its order issued on January 10, 2003, in Expiry Review No. RR-2001-006, concerning certain hot-rolled steel plate, originating in or exported from China, South Africa and Russia. The order is scheduled to expire on January 9, 2008.

  3. On April 26, 2007, the CBSA initiated an expiry review to determine whether the expiry of the order is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of the goods from the Named Countries. The President was required to make a decision no later than August 23, 2007.

  4. The original anti-dumping investigation into certain hot-rolled steel plate originating in or exported from China, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and the Republic of Poland (Poland) was initiated on February 13, 1997, following a complaint made by Stelco Inc. (Stelco), with support from the other Canadian producers.

  5. On June 27, 1997, the Deputy Minister of National Revenue (now the President of the CBSA) terminated the investigation with respect to Poland and made a preliminary determination of dumping concerning the subject goods from the remaining four countries. A final determination of dumping was made on September 25, 1997, followed by an injury finding issued by the Tribunal on October 27, 1997.2

  6. In its expiry review order made on January 10, 2003, the Tribunal continued, with amendment, its finding made in Inquiry No. NQ-97-001. The Tribunal rescinded its finding against Mexico. Imports of the subject goods from the Named Countries have been monitored for anti-dumping assessment under this order.3

  7. The CBSA completed its last reinvestigation to update the normal values and export prices of certain hot-rolled steel plate on February 3, 2006. The results of this review were made public in Customs Notice 640 on May 1, 2006.4

  8. Since 1992, there have been five investigations concerning similar plate products, each resulting in the imposition of either anti-dumping measures or both anti-dumping and countervailing measures against imports from various countries. The measures resulting from two of the five investigations are still in force. The five plate cases are informally referred to as Plate I, Plate II, Plate III (which is the subject of this expiry review), Plate IV and Plate V (which is still in force).

Plate I

  1. On May 6, 1993, in Inquiry No. NQ-92-007, the Tribunal found that dumped imports from Belgium, Brazil, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Romania, the United Kingdom and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia were injuring the production of plate in Canada. On May 5, 1998, in Review No. RR-97-006, the Tribunal concluded that there was no likelihood of resumed dumping from the subject countries and, therefore, rescinded its finding.

Plate II

  1. On May 17, 1994, in Inquiry No. NQ-93-004, the Tribunal found that dumped imports from Italy, the Republic of Korea, Spain and Ukraine were injuring the production of plate in Canada. On May 17, 1999, in Review No. RR-98-004, the Tribunal issued an order continuing its finding. On May 17, 2004, in Expiry Review No. RR-2003-001, the Tribunal concluded that the expiry of this order would not likely result in material injury to the domestic industry in the near to medium term and therefore rescinded its order against the subject countries.

Plate IV

  1. On June 27, 2000, in Inquiry No. NQ-99-004,5 the Tribunal found that dumped imports from Brazil, Finland, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Ukraine and subsidized imports from India, Indonesia and Thailand had caused material injury to the domestic industry. On June 27, 2005, in Expiry Review No. RR-2004-004, the Tribunal concluded that the expiry of the finding would likely not result in material injury to the domestic industry in the near to medium term and therefore rescinded its finding against the subject countries.

Plate V

  1. On January 9, 2004, in Inquiry No. NQ-2003-002, the Tribunal found that dumped imports from the Republic of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Romania had caused material injury to the domestic industry. The Tribunal excluded from its finding plate in thicknesses greater than 4.0 inches. Unless it is renewed, this finding is scheduled to expire on January 8, 2009.

PRODUCT DESCRIPTION

Definition

  1. The goods subject to this expiry review are defined as:

    Hot-rolled carbon steel plate and high-strength low-alloy plate not further manufactured than hot-rolled, heat-treated or not, in cut lengths, in widths from 24 inches (+/- 610 mm) to 152 inches (+/- 3,860 mm) inclusive, and thicknesses from 0.187 inches (+/-4.75 mm) to 4.0 inches (+/- 101.6 mm) inclusive, but excluding plate for use in the manufacture of pipe and tube (also known as skelp); plate in coil form, plate having a rolled, raised figure at regular intervals on the surface (also known as floor plate), and plate produced to ASTM specifications A515 and A516M/A516, grade 70 (also known as pressure vessel quality plate) in thicknesses greater than 3.125 inches (+/- 79.3 mm).

    Hereinafter, the goods will be referred to as “certain hot-rolled steel plate”.

Product Information

  1. Certain hot-rolled steel plate is manufactured to meet certain Canadian Standards Association (CSA) and/or American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) specifications or equivalent specifications.

  2. The CSA specification G40.21 covers steel for general construction purposes. In the ASTM, for instance, specification A36M/A36 comprises structural plate; specifications A572M/A572 comprises high strength low alloy steel plate; and specification A516M/A516 comprises pressure vessel quality plate.

  3. ASTM standards, such as A6/A6M and A20/A20M, recognize permissible variations for dimensions.

  4. It should be noted that the metric equivalent dimensions in the definition of the goods are rounded numbers as indicated by the “+/-” symbols.

Production Process

  1. Liquid steel, for use in the production of certain hot-rolled steel plate, is produced using blast furnaces, basic oxygen furnaces and electric arc furnaces. While details may vary from mill to mill, the process by which certain hot-rolled steel plate is produced from liquid steel is essentially the same for all producers and entails producing a slab, heating the slab, descaling it, rolling it, levelling it, cutting it to size, inspecting it and testing it. Certain hot-rolled steel plate may be heat-treated, which may include annealing, normalizing, stress relieving, quenching, tempering or combinations of these treatments.

Applications

  1. Certain hot-rolled steel plate can be used in a number of applications, the most common being in the production of rail cars, oil and gas storage tanks, heavy construction machinery, agricultural equipment, bridges, industrial buildings, high rise office towers, automobiles and truck parts, and shipbuilding, ship repairs, and pressure vessels.

CLASSIFICATION OF IMPORTS

  1. Certain hot-rolled steel plate is normally imported into Canada under the Harmonized System (HS) classification numbers:

    7208.51.10.00 7208.51.99.10 7208.52.19.00
    7208.51.91.10 7208.51.99.91 7208.52.90.10
    7208.51.91.91 7208.51.99.92 7208.52.90.91
    7208.51.91.92 7208.51.99.93 7208.52.90.92
    7208.51.91.93 7208.51.99.94 7208.52.90.93
    7208.51.91.94 7208.51.99.95 7208.52.90.94
    7208.51.91.95 7208.52.11.00 7208.52.90.95

PERIOD OF REVIEW

  1. The period of review (POR) for this expiry review investigation is January 1, 2004, to March 31, 2007. The President also considered additional information placed on the administrative record, up to the closing of the record date, which was June 14, 2007.

CANADIAN INDUSTRY

  1. The Canadian industry for certain hot-rolled steel plate production is comprised of the following two producers:

    • Algoma Steel Inc. of Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario
    • Ipsco Inc. of Regina, Saskatchewan

  2. In regard to Stelco, the original complainant in this case, it idled its Hamilton plate mill in April 2003 and subsequently closed the facility in June 2004.

Algoma

  1. Algoma was incorporated on June 1, 1992, acquiring all the assets and some of the liabilities of the former Algoma Steel Corporation Limited.6 On January 29, 2002, Algoma was reorganized under a Plan of Arrangement and Reorganization pursuant to the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act. 7

  2. Algoma is a primary iron and steel producer and currently has the capacity to produce approximately 2.9 million metric tonnes (mt) of raw steel annually. Expressed in terms of finished steel products, its annual production in 2006 was 2.4 million mt consisting of certain hot-rolled steel plate, hot-rolled sheet, cold-rolled sheet, welded wide flange and unfinished parts.8

  3. Algoma has two facilities that can produce certain hot-rolled steel plate: the 166” Plate Mill and the 106” Wide Strip Mill.9

Ipsco

  1. Ipsco was incorporated in 1956 under the name of Prairie Pipe Manufacturing Co. Ltd. and commenced operations in 1957 with the completion of an electric resistance weld pipe mill in Regina, Saskatchewan. In 1959, Ipsco acquired the assets of Interprovincial Steel Corp. Ltd. and, in 1960, commenced production of its own flat-rolled steel, including certain hot-rolled steel plate.10

  2. Ipsco has since expanded its manufacturing capabilities through acquisition and plant construction. Certain hot-rolled steel plate is manufactured in discrete form at its steel mill in Regina, and cut-to-length plate is produced from its coil processing operations also located in Regina as well as in Surrey, British Columbia and Toronto, Ontario.11

  3. Ipsco also manufactures other steel products, such as oil country tubular goods (OCTG), line pipe, standard pipe, hollow structural sections and alloy sheet and plate.12

CANADIAN MARKET

  1. Detailed information regarding the volumes of sales from Canadian producers and from importers cannot be divulged for confidentiality reasons.

  2. During the POR, the apparent Canadian market fluctuated, decreasing in 2005 from 2004 levels before peaking in 2006.13

ENFORCEMENT

  1. During the POR, all of the Named Countries exported certain hot-rolled steel plate to Canada and were imposed anti-dumping duty at varying levels.14

PARTICIPANTS

  1. The Tribunal’s notice concerning the expiry review and an ERQ were sent to the Canadian producers, the importers and the exporters of subject goods.

  2. The ERQ requested information relevant to the consideration of the expiry review factors found under subsection 37.2(1) of the Special Import Measures Regulations (SIMR). Any persons or governments having an interest in this investigation were also invited to provide a submission regarding the effect the expiry of the Tribunal ’s order would have on the continuation or resumption of dumping.

  3. As mentioned previously, there are two producers of certain hot-rolled steel plate in Canada. In addition to participating in the expiry review by answering the Canadian Producer ERQ15, both provided case arguments stating that the dumping of subject goods is likely to continue or resume should the Tribunal ’s order expire.

  4. Two exporters, Ansteel and Baosteel, both from China, participated in the expiry review by providing responses to the Exporter ERQ16. No subsequent case arguments or reply submissions were received from these exporters.

  5. With regard to importers, Salzgitter Mannesman International (Canada) Inc. and Stemcor USA Inc. (Stemcor)17 participated in the expiry review by providing responses to the Importer ERQ18. No subsequent case arguments or reply submissions were received from these importers.

INFORMATION USED BY THE PRESIDENT

Administrative Record

  1. The information used and considered by the President for purposes of this expiry review proceeding is contained on the administrative record. The administrative record includes the exhibits listed on the CBSA’s Listing of Exhibits and Information. This is comprised of the Tribunal ’s administrative record at initiation of the expiry review, CBSA exhibits, and information submitted by interested persons, including information which they feel is relevant to the decision as to whether dumping is likely to continue or resume, absent the order. This information may consist of excerpts from trade magazines and newspapers, orders and findings issued by authorities in Canada or of a country other than Canada, documents from international trade organizations such as the World Trade Organization, and responses to the ERQ submitted by Canadian producers, importers and exporters.

  2. For purposes of an expiry review investigation, the CBSA sets a date after which no “new” information may be placed on the administrative record. This is referred to as the “closing of the record date”. For this expiry review, the administrative record closed on June 14, 2007. This allows participants time to prepare their case arguments and reply submissions based on the information that is on the administrative record as of the closing of the record date.

PROCEDURAL ISSUES

  1. As previously noted, the closing of the record date for this expiry review was June 14, 2007. In accordance with the CBSA’s Expiry Review Guidelines, the President will normally not consider any new information submitted by participants subsequent to the closing of the record date. However, in certain exceptional circumstances, it may be necessary to permit new information to be submitted. The President will consider the following factors in deciding whether to accept new information submitted after the closing of the record date:

    1. the availability of the information prior to the closing of the record date;
    2. the emergence of new or unforeseen issues;
    3. the relevance and materiality of the information;
    4. the opportunity for other participants to respond to the new information; and
    5. whether the new information can reasonably be taken into consideration by the President in making the determination.

  2. Participants wishing to file new information after the closing of the record date, either separately or in case arguments or reply submissions, must identify this information so that the President can decide whether it will be included in the record for purposes of the determination.

  3. There were no procedural issues to note for this expiry review.

POSITION OF THE PARTIES

Parties Contending that Resumed or Continued Dumping is Likely

  1. The two Canadian producers, Algoma and Ipsco, provided responses to the ERQ and presented arguments and additional evidence that the dumping into Canada of certain hot-rolled steel plate from the Named Countries is likely to continue or resume in the event of the expiry of the order.

Positions of the Canadian Producers – General

  1. The Canadian producers presented several common arguments, in their respective submissions, notably dealing with the market conditions of steel plate and the influence of China on these conditions, the excess supply and production capacity of steel plate in the Named Countries, the demonstrated interest in the Canadian market by the Named Countries, the volume and prices of the dumped subject goods, the influence of low-priced imports of steel plate from other countries, and the trade actions in place against the Named Countries. The Canadian producers also presented separate arguments for their positions such as the commodity nature of steel plate, the preponderance of evidence on the record, and production switching, among others.

  2. In addressing the market conditions of steel plate, Algoma referred to the period from 2003 where Canadian steel plate consumption increased substantially but the domestic industry’s participation and market share showed considerable decline. During this time, Algoma identified that there has been a presence of lower priced plate imports competing with the domestic industry. Further, Algoma claimed that their prices have fallen since their peak in the last quarter of 2004 due in large part to price undercutting by importers of plate from low-priced sources, which they argued, would be exacerbated should the current plate order be rescinded.19 Looking forward at market conditions, Algoma pointed to forecasts indicating that demand in Canada for subject and like goods is anticipated to decline in the second half of 2007 and decline further throughout 2008.20

  3. Algoma and Ipsco stated that the most significant market development is the growing plate capacity of China and the fact that they have become the largest steel exporter in the world. Algoma contended that the Chinese steel industry’s production combined with its significant overcapacity indicates that China will not be able to resist the attractive high prices of the North American market.21 Ipsco further added that Chinese steel prices remained soft in the first half of 2006, which reflect oversupply and high inventory levels.22 In addition, Ipsco argued that domestic markets of the Named Countries have insufficient demand to absorb current steel production and that this excess production would likely be directed to the North American market.23

  4. Both Algoma and Ipsco submitted that the Named Countries have significant excess supply that will not only increase their ability to export significant quantities, but also their incentive to resume dumping in significant quantities if allowed to do so.24 Ipsco identified that global excess supply of world crude steel is forecasted to reach 300 million mt by 2010, partly the result of 265 million mt of new steelmaking capacity in China.25.

  5. Algoma noted that the mills in the Named Countries not only continue to have significant excess capacity, but have plans to add further capacity.26 Algoma referred to reports indicating that the Named Countries have a total plate capacity of 71 million mt, which they stated is significantly larger than the Canadian market. Algoma framed the argument that if collectively the capacity utilization rates for steel plate mills were a conservative 70%, that unused capacity of just those mills would be 21.4 million mt. Algoma maintained that if the order is rescinded, that this substantial production capacity and capacity underutilization will result in the resumption of dumping of subject goods.27

  6. Algoma and Ipsco identified that there were significant imports from the Named Countries into the Canadian market prior to the normal value review of February 3, 2006, particularly by China and Russia.28 Ipsco stated that prior to this revision, normal values had not been updated for several years and that due to increasing production costs, were now outdated and irrelevant. Ipsco noted that after the normal value review in 2006, imports fell off to 2003 levels. Ipsco further contended that this illustrates that imports during this period were dumped and that should these Named Countries again be unrestrained from dumping that they will begin to do so at significant volumes. In addition, Ipsco also argued that anti-dumping duty was collected on subject goods indicating that importers are willing to pay dumping duties to bring in quantities of low-priced goods, thus showing a continued import pull resulting in a strong likelihood of resumed dumping if the order is not continued.29

  7. Ipsco submitted that the steel producers of the Named Countries will have to compete with other low-priced imports, particularly those countries of previous steel plate anti-dumping findings such as Brazil and Ukraine.30 Algoma and Ipsco compared current prices of low-priced imports against those of the Canadian domestic market and contended that the Named Countries will be forced to price closer to the low-priced imports to compete on the Canadian market.31

  8. Algoma argued that due to the volumes of dumped goods that have entered into the Canadian market, as well as the overall decline in imports since the original finding has been in place, indicate that these exporters cannot compete in the Canadian market without dumping and that if the order were rescinded that they would certainly resume dumping.32 Algoma referred to the 768 mt of dumped subject plate from Russia and South Africa during 2005 and contended that these exporters cannot compete in the Canadian market without dumping at significant margins.33

  9. Ipsco upheld that the Named Countries will resume exporting at significant volumes and prices at or below the current group of low-priced plate imports, as has been the case in prior steel plate findings that were rescinded. Ipsco sited trade volumes of countries included in prior steel plate findings and identified that they began to significantly increase exports at prices $200-250 per mt lower than Canadian domestic market prices once measures were removed.34

  10. Algoma also used Brazil and Ukraine as examples of plate exporters that significantly lowered their prices in order to re-enter the Canadian market to compete after anti-dumping measures against them were rescinded.35 Algoma stated that the price pressure faced by the domestic industry in 2006 and 2007 from low-priced plate imports deserved consideration. Algoma submitted that price is a key factor for this commodity product, and that it will be these prices that the Named Countries will have to compete with in order to regain lost volumes and market share.36

  11. Both Algoma and Ipsco argued that there is a clear history of a propensity to dump by the Named Countries. They identified the trade measures in place regarding steel products against the Named Countries and contended that the sheer number of these anti-dumping measures is clear evidence of the propensity to dump whenever they can do so.37 Algoma identified that exporters of plate from China and South Africa are also currently under measures by Canada regarding hot-rolled steel sheet and strip and argued that the dumping of these similar products into Canada indicates that they will do so with plate if the order is rescinded.38

  12. In addition, Algoma referred to the adjacent US market and noted the trade measures in place there against the Named Countries with respect to steel plate and other hot-rolled products.39 Algoma argued, that should the order be rescinded, that significant volumes of plate would be directed to the Canadian market due to attractive North American pricing.40

  13. In addressing the commodity nature of the subject goods, Ipsco submitted that carbon steel plate does not generally have any differentiating product characteristics amongst most grades, thus making it highly interchangeable, and the market for it extremely price sensitive. Therefore, Ipsco argued, imported subject goods and like goods compete amongst themselves in Canada, regardless of their origin, with like goods produced by Canadian producers.41

  14. Furthermore, due to the capital-intensive nature of steel production, Ipsco maintained that the economics of steel production make it likely that when there are conditions of overcapacity, producers will continue to produce and sell excess production in foreign markets at depressed prices, as it may be more costly to shut down and restart a mill than it is to produce at a loss. Ipsco noted that prices converge over time towards the lowest price offered and that the premiums enjoyed from domestic purchases erode as dumped products become more widely available on the market.42

  15. Algoma remarked that there is a preponderance of evidence on the President’s record, including evidence submitted from all domestic producers, indicating that dumping will continue if the current order is rescinded. In contrast, Algoma pointed to the minimal amount of evidence on the record, submitted by only a small percentage of the large number of producers and exporters in the Named Countries, indicating that dumping is not likely to resume. Algoma argued that there is clearly not sufficient evidence on the record to support a determination that dumping is not likely to resume.43

  16. Algoma contended that many producers have the ability to produce both steel plate and hot-rolled sheet in the same facilities and identifies that it is possible to switch between the two with relative ease.44 Further, as China and South Africa are both covered by Canadian injury findings for hot-rolled sheet, Algoma submitted that if the order for steel plate is rescinded, they will choose to switch their production, for export to Canada, from hot-rolled sheet to steel plate in order to avoid the finding still in place for hot-rolled sheet.45 Algoma asserted that the current high price of steel plate compared to hot-rolled sheet will compound this and that the price differential between the two products would compel Russian producers to switch production as well.46

  17. Algoma held two positions regarding Canadian importers; the first being that they have had a propensity to source dumped steel plate. Algoma supported this with a table indicating a small group of importers that have consistently sourced dumped plate over the past decade.47 Secondly, Algoma argued that Canadian importers continue the behaviour of selling ‘off the docks’, which they stated is indicative of a likelihood to resume dumping should the order be rescinded.48

Positions of the Canadian Producers – Country Specific

China

  1. Ipsco identified that China is the number one steel producer in the world characterized with growing excess capacity and increasing exports.49 Further, Ipsco pointed to forecasts indicating that China’s steel product consumption growth rate will slow in 2007, which will lead to a reliance on exports to sustain their rapidly growing steel industry.50 Additionally, Ipsco cited World Steel Dynamics’ (WSD) expectations that the Chinese steel industry will enter a period of extreme oversupply in 2007 and contended that this oversupply will enter into Canada if the market is opened to dumped imports.51

  2. Ipsco noted that China’s crude steel production has been growing rapidly and that the forecasted production rate for 2007 will be up 13% over 2006. Ipsco argued that China cannot survive without global markets and if not restrained by the current order, that even a small proportion of this oversupply, directed towards Canada, would overwhelm Canadian producers and drive them out of business.52

  3. Algoma argued that China is dependant on exports to maintain capacity utilization.53 They maintained that Chinese plate production capacity is immense and that coupled with their production imperative and slowing domestic consumption, that they will increase exports, particularly to markets with higher pricing such as Canada.54 Algoma supported this by referring to a report indicating that Chinese exports will increase to 52 million mt in 2007 due to oversupply.55 Finally, Algoma noted that Steel Business Briefing (SBB) believes that the apparent growth in steel consumption in China is half the rate of its crude steel production growth.56

  4. Algoma identified that only five Chinese exporters, representing less than 20% of plate production capacity, have normal values assigned to them and that the remainder face the anti-dumping duty rate of 80%. Algoma argued that if the order were rescinded that these possible exporters that do not have normal values, and that withheld from the Canadian market due to this anti-dumping duty rate, would join in exporting alongside the five mills .57

  5. With respect to past and current anti-dumping cases against the Named Countries, Algoma and Ipsco contended that the recent case initiated by Mexico against steel plate from China, is evidence that Chinese plate producers are still continuing their practise of disrupting foreign markets.58 Ipsco argued that Mexico has received Chinese plate reportedly cheaper than Mexican local production costs and contended that because Canada and Mexico are on the same continent and share the same modes of transportation and channel of sales, that clearly the dumping of subject goods would recommence if the order is rescinded.59

  6. Ipsco pointed to a recent report from the WTO Secretariat noting the concern of increases in new anti-dumping cases against the Named Countries.60 Of particular concern was China, as they were the most frequent subject of investigations. Ipsco contended that Canada is not immune to these continued dumping actions and that Chinese exporters are very likely to resume dumping of the subject goods if allowed to do so by the rescission of the current order.61

Russia

  1. Algoma noted that Russia is the world’s third largest exporter of steel products accounting for 11% of total world production. They then argued that Russian mills have significant production capacity and overcapacity, and that they are dependent on exports to maintain capacity utilization.62 With respect to plate, Algoma provided that Russia has a capacity of 4 million mt and attested that any plate overcapacity will lead to export destinations like Canada.63

  2. Algoma identified Russia as one of the countries previously covered by the 1998 Hot Rolled Steel Sheet finding. They noted that following the rescission of that finding, imports of Russian hot-rolled steel sheet began to appear again at very significant levels in the Canada market. Algoma alleged that this is what will occur if this current order on plate is rescinded.64

  3. Ipsco noted that Russia is producing steel at roughly twice the rate of its domestic consumption and has an oversupply situation with domestic buyers. They contended that they will be going global with this production.65

  4. Ipsco asserted that both the United States and Mexico have outstanding anti-dumping measures against Russian flat-rolled products, including the subject goods, and argued that if the order is rescinded, the only available market in North America will be Canada.66

  5. Ipsco pointed to a report by the WTO noting that Russia was subject to frequent anti-dumping investigations, demonstrating the continuing propensity to dump by Russian exporters.67

South Africa

  1. Ipsco identified that South Africa produced 9.6 million mt of crude steel in 2006 but sold only 5.5 million mt on the domestic market in that same year implying that they exported and continue to have capacity to export a significant amount of steel. Ipsco further pointed out that South Africa is increasing steel production as well as increasing steel producing capacity.68

  2. Algoma alleged that South African mills have significant production capacity and overcapacity and are dependant on exports to maintain capacity utilization. They also stated that South Africa continues to export a significant volume of plate and that should this order be rescinded, exporting to Canada will resume at pricing that will have to compete with the present low-priced imports.69

  3. Ipsco noted that South Africa is in the top 15 countries in terms of new trade measures in the last six months and contended that it demonstrates the continuing propensity to dump by South African exporters.70 Additionally, Ipsco identified the turmoil in the South African domestic steel market due to an anti-trust investigation, and argued that certain steel producers do not follow established rules.71

Parties Contending that Resumed or Continued Dumping is Not Likely

  1. The sole party that presented a position was Baosteel, one of the two exporters to respond to the ERQ. Their position was contained in the ERQ response.

China – Baosteel Group Corporation

  1. Baosteel is of the position that due to the Chinese government measures that have been set in place, or that are currently being set in place, that exports of hot-rolled steel will go down considerably in the foreseeable future. These measures being: the adjustment of tax refund rates for exports of steel products from 15% to 0%, the requirement to apply to the Chinese government for trade licences and recent increase in export duties from 0% to between 5% and 10% to be applied to most steel products.72

CONSIDERATION AND ANALYSIS

  1. In deciding whether the expiry of the order is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping, the President considered factors specifically identified in paragraphs (a) to (i) of subsection 37.2(1) of the SIMR, as well as any other factors relevant in the circumstances in rendering a determination pursuant to paragraph 76.03(7)(a) of SIMA.

  2. Guided by the factors in the aforementioned SIMR and based on the documentation submitted by the various participants and the consideration of the information on the administrative record, the ensuing list represents a summary of the analysis conducted in this review:

    • There is significant oversupply in global markets, driven by the supply surplus in the Chinese market;

    • New capacity and production is being added, leading to continuing supply increases;

    • Excess capacity and production in China has now transformed that country into an exporting source;

    • China and export-dependant suppliers are directing increasing export volumes to other markets;

    • Recent pricing data suggests that exporters from the Named Countries are selling at prices that appear to be below normal values in these other markets;

    • The exporters in the Named Countries have continued to export to Canada while the order has been in place, and with volumes having decreased since the latest normal value review in 2006, this suggests that they are still interested in the Canadian marketplace but are increasingly unable to compete at non-dumped prices;

    • Trade measures by other countries, including the United States , mean there are fewer “open” markets, increasing the risk that significant export volumes will be directed to Canada in the absence of the anti-dumping measures.

  3. Before presenting a country by country analysis on the issue of the likelihood of continued or resumed dumping, there are certain issues that relate to the goods on a broader scale which are addressed as follows: commodity nature of certain hot-rolled steel plate; capital intensive nature of steel production; steel market developments and trends; and the impact of China.

Commodity Nature of Certain Hot-rolled Steel Plate

  1. Generally speaking, certain hot-rolled steel plate produced to a given specification by a producer in a given country is physically interchangeable with certain hot-rolled steel plate produced to the same specification in any other country. As such, the goods compete amongst themselves regardless of origin and share the same channels of distribution and the same potential customers. This characteristic means that certain hot-rolled steel plate must compete in a market that is extremely price sensitive, where price is one of the primary factors affecting purchasing decisions from customers. Furthermore, because of this high degree of price sensitivity, prices in a given market have historically tended to converge over time towards the lowest available price offerings.

Capital-Intensive Nature of Steel Production

  1. A second characteristic of the product involves the capital-intensive nature of steel production. As the Tribunal once noted, “Steel mills are capital intensive with high fixed costs”. In order to recover fixed expenses, steel mills must run at high levels of production capacity. When home market demand drops, producers will search out foreign markets to maintain capacity utilization to ensure that these fixed costs are recovered.”73 This is often referred to as the “economics of steel production”. This characteristic is particularly important when there are conditions of overcapacity, as a producer may find it more feasible to sell excess production in foreign markets at depressed prices rather than reduce production, as long as the producer’s variable costs are covered.

Steel Market Developments and Trends

  1. Since 2004, the steel industry and steel markets have experienced a series of important changes. One of the most significant developments revolves around China’s emergence, in 2006, as world’s largest exporter of steel products. Another fundamental change in the steel industry is the continued growth in world crude steel output, reaching, since 2004, levels above 1 billion mt.74 Other significant developments include the global consolidations, in 2006, between Arcelor – Mittal and, in 2007, between Tata Steel - Corus75 and the emergence of India as a key global steel player.

  2. In the near future, further mergers and alliances are expected as steelmakers look to integrate horizontally (downstream consolidation) with other mills and vertically (upstream consolidation) with raw material suppliers. These forms of consolidation would occur in different parts of the world at different levels, either on a country, regional or international basis.

  3. World export prices of hot-rolled steel plate increased from US$527 per mt to US$663 over the years 2004 to 2005 and were forecasted to peak, in 2006, at US$720 per mt. From 2007 to 2010, world export prices of hot-rolled steel plate export prices are expected to range between US$470 per mt to US$680, levels that are well below those achieved in 2006.76

  4. In the first 6 months of 2007, average hot-rolled steel plate prices for Ukrainian and Latin American exports and Southeast Asian and Gulf region imports ranged , from US$540 per mt to US$680. During the same time period, the average US Midwest domestic plate prices ranged from US$892 per mt to US$940.77 This demonstrates that the current relative plate pricing levels in North America are significantly above prevailing prices in other markets. At the very minimum, there is a price gap of over US$210 per mt, which may be attributable to US and Canadian anti-dumping measures on hot-rolled steel plate that have helped to support prices in North America.

Impact of China

  1. As China is fundamental to a wider analysis of global steel trends and issues, it is important to consider recent developments and trends in the Chinese steel market.

  2. The significant jump in world steel output and consumption in recent years is directly linked to increased economic activity in China and the related expansion of Chinese steelmaking production and exports.

  3. China remains the world’s largest steel producer, accounting for approximately 421 million mt or 34% of total world steel production in 2006.78 In fact, China now has more steel mills than the US, Japan, and Russia combined.79 To put China’s growth into perspective, during the period of 2003-2006, China’s total production increased by about 239 million mt as compared to the rest of the world, which experienced an increase of approximately 95 million mt collectively. Put another way, the increase of Chinese steel production in just the last three years (2003-2006) is almost equal to twice the total current amount of steel production from all the NAFTA countries combined (NAFTA steel production is reported to be approximately 132 million mt in 2006).80

  4. China’s extraordinary production growth over the last few years has led to a massive trade surplus in steel in 2006 and has transformed China into a net steel exporter. Since 2003, China has gone from being a net importer and recognizing a trade deficit in steel of 35 million mt valued at US$18.3 billion to amassing a trade surplus of 31 million mt valued at US$7.2 billion. This 66 million mt swing is a direct result of imports decreasing from 43 million mt in 2003 to 19 million mt in 2006, while simultaneously experiencing a marked increase in exports of steel from 7 million mt to 49 million mt over the same period.81 This exponential increase in exports and decrease in crude steel imports can be directly attributed to the oversupply of steel in the Chinese market caused by the massive increases in production. In fact, Chinese apparent use of finished steel products in 2006 accounted for approximately 356 million mt82, which is significantly less than what they produced, according to the data above.

  5. This situation of expanding production and increased exports is unlikely to change in the near term. The Chinese Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reported in April that steel production in the first quarter of 2007 increased 26% year-on-year and exceeded domestic consumption by approximately 10 million mt. In addition, CISA stated that during the first quarter of this year, China continued to rely heavily on exports to balance steel demand and supply in the domestic market. According to CISA, net exports for the quarter were equal to excess production, amounting to 10 million mt.83 Moreover, WSD forecasts a 90% chance that the Chinese steel industry will enter a period of “extreme” oversupply84, and their most likely 2007 forecast calls for steel mills in China to have a “disastrous” financial year as a result of depressed home market prices and overcapacity.85 A realization of such a forecast will likely result in Chinese mills attempting to minimize their losses by maintaining high capacity utilization rates, which were above 90%86 for the plate industry during the POR, and exporting excess production to any market able to absorb such shipments.

  6. This trend is expected to continue throughout the long-term, as it is forecast that world crude steelmaking overcapacity could reach 300 million mt by the end of 2010, with 265 million mt (88%) of that excess capacity being attributable to new capacity in China.87

  7. Amid global criticism and threats of future trade actions related to its continued capacity expansions and the escalation of steel exports, the Government of the People’s Republic of China (GPRC) has taken a number of new steps in an attempt to tighten control over excessive exports of steel. In addition to the measures already in place, which include land and credit restrictions and minimum size requirements for steel mills, the GPRC recently levied export taxes of 5-10% on 83 types of finished steel products for which the VAT tax rebates were also recently abolished.88 Also, in May 2007, the GPRC implemented an export licensing system on steel products.89

  8. However, experts argue that China’s export tax changes are meaningless and have been proven to be only temporary in the past while failing to address the root causes of export surges, such as the millions of tonnes of overcapacity which is considered to be the primary cause .90 It is also believed that the export taxes on steel products are unlikely to have any effect on reversing the current export trends.92 As for the newly implemented steel export licensing system, it simply focuses on monitoring steel export prices, destination, and product mix, and will not likely heavily impact the volume of steel exports.93 The new licensing system also fails to impose limits on export volumes and does not specifically restrict any particular firms from exporting.94

  9. Finally, while the GPRC has stated that it is committed to closing outdated steel capacity, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has reported a slowdown in the elimination of such capacity. The NDRC stated that closures have been hindered by the low-value-added steel product export growth , even as China’s steel production consumption growth rate is forecast to slow this year.95 The GPRC’s difficulty in eliminating outdated steel capacity is also exacerbated by the fact that , according to the NDRC96, local governments continue to expand steel capacity without following the proper application and approval procedures. It is also interesting to note that the mill expansions that have been approved for 2007 are projected to fully offset planned capacity closures during the same period .97

  10. Despite the measures put in place by the GPRC , it is likely that capacity, production, and exports will continue to rise significantly over the next few years as the Chinese steel industry continues to have the single largest impact on the global steel industry. The increasing volume of low-priced Chinese steel exports will likely have a profound effect on world steel markets, and will force other export oriented countries to lower their prices to maintain sales into export markets.

  11. Further, some experts are now even suggesting that China’s impact on the global steel industry will not be limited to its production and export of steel products, but also by exports of goods that contain steel. It has been suggested that a major surge in exports of such goods is likely in the next few years, and that exports of steel containing goods from China in 2006 may have included 30 million mt of steel.98 This raises the possibility that steel producers in other world markets may see a decrease in demand for their steel not only due to an increase in Chinese steel exports, but also as a result of manufacturing end-users in their markets reducing their production as a result of having to compete against finished goods containing steel being exported from China.

Likelihood of Continued or Resumed Dumping

  1. The following analysis of the likelihood of continued or resumed dumping begins with China, followed by Russia, and South Africa.

China

  1. As mentioned earlier, the CBSA received responses to the ERQ from two Chinese producers, Ansteel and Baosteel. In terms of crude steel production, Baosteel is the largest producer in China. Anshan Iron & Steel Group Corporation, of which Ansteel is a subsidiary, is China’s third largest producer.99 Case arguments and reply submissions were not received from either of these two producers.

  2. As noted earlier, China is currently the world’s largest steel producing country. In fact, since 1997, China’s total steel production has increased significantly from 109 million mt to four times that amount in 2006.100 Most of this growth has occurred in the shorter term, with total Chinese production in 2006 amounting to more than the total production in 2003 and 2004 combined.101 Averaging an annual growth rate in steel production at or above 20% during the 2002-2006 period, China accounted for 34% of total world steel production in 2006 compared to 20% in 2002.102

  3. As was also pointed out earlier, China’s continuing accelerated growth in crude steel production is not expected to slow down in the near term, with production of steel products in the first quarter of 2007 having increased by 26% year-on-year.

  4. In terms of production relating specifically to hot-rolled steel plate, the situation is similar to that discussed above. Based on the information submitted by the Chinese exporters, capacity utilization rates for Chinese mills producing certain hot-rolled steel plate were above 90%103 during the period of review and total production of certain hot-rolled steel plate increased104 significantly. The production figures for the Chinese steel plate industry provided by Ansteel are similar to those reported by WSD, which shows total medium and heavy plate production equalled 36 million mt in 2006.105

  5. Regarding Ansteel’s potential production increases over the short-term, they announced in April of this year that they were issuing shares to fund a new steel mill at Yingkou Port.106 The 5 million mt per year project includes a plate mill with an annual capacity of 2 million mt per year, and construction, which has already begun, could be completed by early 2008.107 While the mill may not run at full capacity in 2008, it is possible that by 2009, operating at current capacity utilization rates noted above, production of hot-rolled steel plate at Ansteel could increase considerably.

  6. As for Baosteel’s potential production increases over the short-term, production at its Pugang mill is scheduled to shut down this year to vacate the site for the Shanghai EXPO in 2010. However, it appears the production lines from Pugang will be moved to a new location and will include a new production line with a capacity of 1.6 million mt per year, which is scheduled to start production in March 2008. Further, Baosteel also opened a new wide heavy-plate production line at its other steel plate mill, Baoshan, in March 2005.108

  7. The medium-term forecast for total steel plate production in China predicts continued growth at a rapid pace, with production expected to reach 46 million mt by 2010, equating to a further increase from 2006 of 28%.109 This forecast seems likely, and may even be conservative, as CISA figures reported by Steel Business Briefing (SBB) for January-April 2007 show a 43% increase in production for hot-rolled plate compared to the same period in 2006. Specifically, production of heavy plate increased 49% from 3.6 to 5.4 million mt, while medium plate was up 40% from 6.6 to 9.3 million mt.110 In the first four months of 2007, China produced approximately 14.7 million mt of steel plate, amounting to almost 9 times the amount of all certain hot-rolled steel plate imported into Canada from 2004 to 2006 (1.58 million mt).111 This medium-term forecast is realistic and is further supported by the current trends discussed up to this point as well as the capacity expansions discussed below.

  8. According to SBB, 5.9 million mt of new steel plate production capacity is to be commissioned this year in China.116 In addition to this figure reported by SBB, the following companies are also expanding steel plate capacity. While this list is not exhaustive, it demonstrates that, in combination with the SBB figure and the capacities of Baosteel and Ansteel addressed earlier, the trend of rapidly expanding steel plate capacity in China exists.

    • Wuhan Iron & Steel is building a new carbon steel plate mill with an initial annual capacity of 1.2 million mt, with plans to later raise production capacity to 1.6 million mt. Production is scheduled to begin in August 2008.117
    • State-owned Anyang Iron & Steel, whose core products include heavy plate, will complete construction of a 1.5 million mt hot-rolling mill in April this year as they continue to focus more on producing flat products. It plans to expand the annual capacity of that mill to 3.3 million mt in 2008.118
    • Minmetals Yinkou Medium Plate Co. Ltd. is building a heavy plate mill with an annual capacity of 2 million mt that will have the capability to be expanded to 2.3 million mt. The plant is to be commissioned in the fall of 2009.119
    • Maanshan Iron & Steel has a 5 million mt thin plate production project set to begin production this year.120
    • Tangshan Iron & Steel started trial production at its new 1.5 million mt medium and heavy plate mill in August 2006. This is the first stage in a five-stage plan, which aims to reach an annual steel plate capacity of 5 million mt.121
    • Qinghuangdo Shouqin Metal Materials (Shougang Group) commissioned a 1.2 million mt heavy plate mill in late 2006 and is considering increasing annual capacity to 1.8 million mt.122
    • Shagang planned to start operations at its new 2 million mt heavy plate mill by the end of 2006.123
    • Xiangtan Steel started constructing a plate line with annual capacity of 1 million mt. The new mill is expected to begin operations in June 2008.124
    • Wuyang Iron & Steel Co commissioned a 1 million mt plate mill in May 2007.  It plans to further increase annual capacity by an additional 1 million mt by the end of 2008.125

  9. Based on the above, it is apparent that Chinese steel plate capacity over the next few years will continue to increase at a staggering rate, which also supports the expected production increases discussed earlier. According to SBB126, one of the reasons for further expansion in the Chinese steel plate market relates to the GPRC’s recent steel policy, which calls for the industry to focus on raising the proportion of flat steel products that it produces. SBB also points out that the recent steel policy aims to have flat products account for 50% of China’s total steel production by 2010, an increase of 15% over 2006.

  10. While Chinese domestic consumption of plate has increased over the last few years, and is anticipated to increase in future years, the current production figures as well as the projected future capacity and production figures greatly outweigh domestic demand. In fact, China’s overall steel product consumption growth rate128 is expected to slow, dropping to 10-13% in 2007.129 While the 2007 consumption growth rate represents an increase of 16% over the 2005 rate, this is primarily due to exports of steel products.130 There continues to be an excess of supply of steel products over domestic demand in China.

  11. According to WSD, 2006 saw an oversupply of steel plate of 9 million mt as compared to 2004 when Chinese demand exceeded capacity by 2 million mt.131 This can be attributed to the fact that between 2004 and 2006, Chinese capacity for steel plate expanded from 28 million mt to 46 million mt (up 64%), while domestic demand for plate in China over the period only grew 8 million mt (27%). The excess capacity experienced in 2006, equal to almost 15 times the total amount of steel plate imports into Canada in 2006 (610,768 mt)132, is not an anomaly. With additional capacity coming on stream this year and over the next few years, it is easy to understand why WSD further projects that the oversupply situation in the Chinese steel plate market will continue through to 2010. While WSD projects that oversupply will remain consistent in 2007 at 8 million mt, they forecast that it will increase to approximately 10 million mt in 2008 and remain there until 2010. Further, while their projections assume an increase of capacity from 2006 to 2010 of about 10 million mt, those projections may be somewhat conservative considering the actual and planned capacity additions listed earlier. This could mean that oversupply of steel plate in China could very well exceed 10 million mt much sooner than 2010 and by an even greater amount.

  12. As expected, such striking increases in production and capacity have led to oversupply of steel plate in the Chinese market which has in turn resulted in sharp increases in Chinese plate exports. The trend of marked increases in exports year after year is also evident in flat steel products in general, and is a trend that will likely continue well into the future for most products.

  13. During the 2003-2006 period, Chinese exports of flat products increased 11 fold (36 million mt) as compared to steel exports in general, which increased 7 fold over the period.133 More striking is the increase in hot-rolled carbon steel plate exports during the period, which increased 35 fold, from about 111,000 mt in 2003134 to approximately 4 million mt in 2006.135 In fact, exports of plate increased by 208% from 2005 to 2006 alone and there has even been a recent report136 that large volumes of steel plate are lying on the docks in European ports, indicating that prices on steel plate were so low that traders placed orders and received shipments before having even arranged sales with end users. As for the top five destinations of Chinese carbon steel plate exports, SBB identifies the following markets as of 2005: Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Canada.137

  14. The current conditions described above appear to be supported by the information submitted by the two Chinese respondents to the CBSA’s ERQ. While keeping in mind they only represent a fraction of Chinese plate producers, it appears these two producers rely on exports to maintain their sales and high utilization rates, a reliance that only seems to be strengthening.

  15. As mentioned earlier in this report, it was noted that the GPRC continues to be concerned about the marked increases in overall steel exports and the potential implications it has on the steel industry and its trading partners. However, while the GPRC continues to implement a series of measures to reduce exports, including export taxes on steel products (5% on steel plate), experts in the industry anticipate such measures will have little impact on export behaviour. This was supported by the fact that exports in 2007 have continued to increase and have not seen any reduction in volume or growth as a result of any of the measures implemented thus far.

  16. China’s massive export volumes of steel at low export prices have had and will likely continue to have a significant impact on the global steel market. Recently, the Steel and Engineering Industries Federation of South Africa indicated in South African parliamentary hearings that it believes Chinese steel is undercutting South African manufacturers’ prices by at least 15%-50%.138

  17. In addition to export volumes continuing to be fuelled by increasing capacity and oversupply, trends in export growth can also be attributed to China’s substantially lower export prices when compared to current world prices, particularly in relation to steel plate.

  18. When considering Chinese steel plate pricing information, it is important to note that export prices cannot be reasonably compared to Chinese domestic selling prices due to the nature of the China’s domestic primary steel industry as discussed below.

  19. Information available to the CBSA at the start of the recent reinvestigation respecting China, which concluded in February 2006, indicated that there was reason to believe that section 20 conditions existed in the primary steel industry139 in China, including the hot-rolled steel plate product segment covered by that inquiry. Section 20 of SIMA is applicable to China where, in the opinion of the President, domestic prices are substantially determined by the government and there is sufficient reason to believe that they are not substantially the same as they would be if they were determined in a competitive market.

  20. Accordingly, a section 20 inquiry was initiated and the CBSA requested the government of China, steel producers/exporters in that country and other interested parties, to supply information and evidence on the matter. During that same period, the CBSA continued to research and review publicly available information sources concerning the status of the Chinese primary steel industry.

  21. Following the completion of its section 20 inquiry, the CBSA was satisfied that, based on the information available, section 20 conditions continued to exist in the Chinese primary steel industry, including the hot-rolled steel plate product segment.

  22. As per this provision of the law, for Chinese producers that provided sufficient information for purposes of the reinvestigation, normal values were determined for certain subject goods on the basis of domestic selling prices and costs of like goods in a surrogate country. In this case, South Africa was used as the surrogate country. Export prices were determined on the basis of the information provided by the Chinese exporters and were adjusted where necessary by deducting the costs, charges, expenses, duties and taxes resulting from the exportation of the goods provided for in subparagraphs 24(a)(i) to 24(a)(iii) of SIMA. The Chinese producers that received normal values in accordance with section 20 of SIMA were:

    • Angang Group AnSteel Co. Ltd.;
    • Angang New Steel Co. Ltd.;
    • Jinan Iron and Steel Co. Ltd.;
    • Shanghai Baosteel Group Corporation; and
    • Wuyang Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.

  23. This “surrogate country” normal value methodology is consistent with the approach followed on previous normal value investigations and reinvestigations involving the Chinese primary steel industry.

  24. As noted above, normal values provided to Chinese producers during the last reinvestigation were based on prices in South Africa at that time. As a result, the normal value issued to these producers for standard commodity grade plate was issued in South African Rand. While other normal values were issued for higher grades of plate including high-strength low-alloy, this analysis will focus on the commodity grade normal value for comparison purposes as it represents the majority of Chinese exports.

  25. With regard to Chinese exports of steel plate to Canada during the period of 2004 to 2006, Chinese steel plate exporters have continued to show interest in exporting into the Canadian market, but few exporters with normal values have actually shipped consistently throughout the period.

  26. In terms of overall volumes exported to Canada, China exported approximately 24,000 mt of certain hot-rolled steel plate to Canada in 2004, 37,000 mt in 2005, and 12,000 mt in 2006. These volumes, which were sold at prices above normal values and were not dumped, represented a share of total Canadian imports of 5%, 8%, and 2%, respectively. While these amounts are minimal in comparison to total exports of Chinese steel plate globally, as noted earlier, this may be due to the fact that Chinese exporters are unable to compete in the Canadian market at normal value prices and therefore are unable to export larger volumes to Canada. The noticeable decrease in Chinese imports of steel plate in 2006 may support this, and is likely attributable to two factors ; the substantial increase in imports into Canada from countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Korea, and the fact that Chinese normal values were revised in early 2006 as a result of the recent reinvestigation. 140

  27. Regarding the first factor, export volumes of certain hot-rolled steel plate from Brazil, Indonesia, and Korea, which were previously subject to anti-dumping findings, increased substantially in 2006 after those respective findings were rescinded in the latter half of 2005. As an example, Brazil did not export to Canada in 2004, but in 2006, their exports amounted to 62,000 mt to where they now account for 10% of all imports. The same can be said for Indonesia, whose exports went from zero to 15,000 mt over the same period. Those lower priced steel plate sources have no doubt made it even more difficult for Chinese plate exporters to compete at normal value prices. It is more likely that, in order for China to be more active in the Canadian plate market, they would be required to sell at prices well below current normal values to successfully compete against such low-priced imports.141

  28. In regard to pricing, according to WSD, the daily Chinese standard ex-works (FOB mill) plate prices for the first two weeks in March 2007 were consistently between US$438-$442 per mt.142 In comparing this price with the normal value for commodity grade steel plate, it is apparent that current Chinese export prices are significantly below the normal values issued to Chinese producers as a result of the recent reinvestigation.

  29. To put the current low Chinese export price for plate into perspective, ex-works (FOB mill) prices in the United States during the same period ranged from US$857-$872 per mt143, while prices in Western Europe were around US$820 per mt144. Finally, the average world export price (FOB port of export) for the period was between US$638-$667 per mt145. It should be noted that this figure would take into account Chinese pricing which may explain why it is lower than American and European prices. What is clear is that current Chinese plate export prices to world markets are not only lower than established normal values, but are approximately 50% lower than American and European prices and substantially lower than the average world export prices.

  30. In looking back at 2006, the picture is very similar . Chinese plate prices for the majority of the time between April and December 2006 were below US$400 per mt and as low as US$369, with the exception of June and early July where prices peaked at US$463 per mt.146 In contrast, US prices were above US$800 per mt and peaked in June and July at US$858 per mt.147

  31. The information submitted by Baosteel and Ansteel showing average export prices to various export markets, taking into account that they represent a fraction of the Chinese market and their product mix may include plate at higher grade than commodity grade, still appear to support the pricing data provided above from WSD and SteelBenchmarker.

  32. Based on the analysis above, it is apparent that much of the plate exported by China took place and continues to take place at prices significantly lower than global market prices and at prices less than the normal values determined by the CBSA during the latest reinvestigation. Therefore, it is not surprising that there are a number of anti-dumping cases against China concerning various steel products.

  33. Based on information put on the record by the CBSA, it appears that, excluding Canada’s measures relating to hot-rolled steel sheet and hot-rolled steel plate, there are eight anti-dumping measures currently in place against China involving a variety of steel products.148 These include measures against Chinese hot-rolled steel plate by Australia and the United States.

  34. In addition to those measures in place, three new investigations have been initiated against Chinese steel products and are currently active. These three cases include hot-rolled coil (Indonesia), high carbon wire steel rod (Thailand), and most recently an investigation initiated by Mexico in March 2007 concerning hot-rolled steel plate.149

  35. In relation to the recent case initiated in Mexico, local plate producer Ahmsa complained that the import prices of Chinese plate were 22% lower than domestic prices and were damaging the local market.150 This figure seems consistent with the South African manufacturers’ figure of 15% to 50% mentioned earlier and the current anti-dumping rate on Chinese plate imports into the United States, which is 31% according to Ansteel.151

  36. Mexico, Indonesia, and Thailand are not the only countries to recently consider trade actions against Chinese steel exports. Acknowledging the recent trends in production, capacity, and exports, a number of other countries have recently threatened possible trade actions in relation to Chinese steel products. In a recent article, SBB reported that a Japanese official stated that should carbon steel imports from China exceed 1 million mt during the fiscal year 2007/08 year, trade action could follow.152 Eurofer in the EU is also planning on submitting anti-dumping complaints regarding Chinese hot-rolled coil and wire rod153, while Korea has apparently warned China about a possible action against its flat steel exports.154 Finally, Vietnam is also considering an anti-dumping action against Chinese steel, claiming that imports into Vietnam are at prices that fail to reflect full cost.155

  37. In the end, if the Tribunal ’s order were to expire, the CBSA believes there is a strong likelihood that Chinese exporters would attempt to significantly increase exports to Canada in order to continue to manage its domestic supply-demand imbalance. In addition, trade remedies imposed and being considered by current major export markets for Chinese plate could result in the diversion of large volumes of low-priced plate to other global markets, including Canada, as the Chinese continue to show an interest in the Canadian market. It is also likely that those large export volumes would be priced well below current normal values in order for China to successfully compete against low-priced imports already being made available to the Canadian marketplace from other countries.

  38. Based on China’s increases in hot-rolled steel plate production and the significant additions and plans to further expand capacity, in excess of Chinese domestic demand and projected growth; persistent and mounting oversupply as a result of maintaining high utilization and production rates; China’s increase in exports of steel plate, their transition to a net-steel exporter, and continued interest in the Canadian market; recent evidence of low-priced exports and possibly dumped pricing; anti dumping measures currently in place in addition to recent new investigations concerning hot-rolled steel plate; the President determined that the expiry of the order is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping into Canada of certain hot-rolled steel plate originating in or exported from China.

Russia

  1. No Russian exporters provided a response to the ERQ or filed case arguments or reply submissions for the President to consider in making a determination. In the absence of information from any Russian plate producers, the CBSA’s analysis relied on various market sources and independent trade reports.

  2. In the most recent reinvestigation of normal values and export prices that was concluded on February 3, 2006, only one Russian producer, JSC Severstal (Severstal), submitted a response to the CBSA’s exporter Requests for Information. Accordingly, Severstal was provided with specific normal values for its future shipments of subject plate156 to Canada and normal values for subject goods for all other exporters from Russia were determined in accordance with a ministerial specification based on the export price of the goods advanced by 80.2%.157

  3. The Russian steel industry is highly concentrated among six groups that accounted, in 2006, for over 80% of Russia’s crude steel output or some 59 million mt.158 The six major Russian steel producers were: Evraz Group159 (Evraz), Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works (MMK), Mechel; Metalloinvest Holding160 (Metalloinvest), Novolipetsk Steel (NLMK), and Severstal.

  4. During the POR, the Russian steel industry continuously witnessed an increase in its crude steel production levels. In 2006, Russia was the world’s fourth largest producer of crude steel, accounting for 70.6 million mt, or 5.7% of the global output.161 In Q1 2007, its output reached 18.3 million mt, an increase of over 8% compared to Q1 2006.162

  5. The only available data on the record indicates that, in 2004, Russian steelmakers produced approximately 6 million mt of heavy plate.163

  6. Despite the absence of figures for the remainder of the POR, the following examples provide an order of magnitude in the levels of increased capacity or production for plate in Russia since 2004:

    • In 2004, Metallurgical Holding announced that it planned to build 10 new-mini mills to produce at least 20 million mt per year of new steel in Russia within 10 years and indicated that its 2 million mt per year flat products mini-mill, which would serve the construction industry, was close to finalisation;164
    • Armurmetal, in 2005, embarked on a 2 year - $150 million upgrade programme aimed at increasing its crude steel capacity by over 1.1 million mt, with all of the output destined for plate and slab;165
    • In 2006, Severstal increased its plate mill capacity to 70,000 mt per month in order to supply pipe manufacturers with 50,000 mt, leaving some 20,000 mt of plate available each month or 240,000 mt on an annual basis166; and
    • Evraz, in 2006, exceeded its output for heavy plate of 2005 by 135%.167

  7. In the next 18-24 months, plate production is set to rise dramatically in Russia. For instance, the revamping of MMK’s hot mill is to be completed in 2007,168 the addition of a second 1 million mt per year electric arc furnace, by Metalloinvest, destined for the production of long products and heavy plate, is due to come on stream in 2008,169 the reconstruction of one of Severstal’s blast furnace, by mid-2009, will increase its annual hot metal production by some 100,000 mt170 and the modernization of Ural Steel’s heavy-plate rolling mill will increase plate production to 1.2 million mt by 2009.171

  8. Furthermore, several producers have embarked on large-scale capacity expansions and started to build metallurgical complexes referred as “mill 5000” which are scheduled for completion in the next few years.172 At the present time, Severstal is the only Russian steelmaker who owns a “mill 5000”, which has a capacity of 450,000 mt per year.173 As it was originally designed for the shipbuilding industry, Severstal’s “mill 5000” had limitations in the production of wide plate. Severstal is now in the process of modernizing and expanding its “mill 5000” and Severstal’s capacity for wide plate is expected to reach 800,000 mt and subsequently 1.5 million mt in the future. When all of the “mill 5000” projects are implemented, Russian steelmakers will have the capacity to produce, annually, over 5 million mt of wide plate.174

  9. Even with expected strong growth rates of over 10% in the Russian oil and gas industry, evidence on the record indicates that the Russian demand for wide plate, on an annual basis, will only range between 1.2 – 1.5 million mt,175 leaving a surplus of over 3 million mt.

  10. Metalloinvest has indicated that its annual surplus capacity for wide steel plate of 600,000 mt would be directed to shipbuilding, heavy machine-building, bridge building.176 MMK indicated that some of its annual capacity of 1.5 million mt of wide plate would be allocated to other areas of application such as bridge construction, shipbuilding and heavy mechanical engineering.177

  11. As these “mill 5000” mills will be capable of producing subject plate, they are therefore a relevant consideration when assessing Russian steel plate production capabilities.

  12. The Russian market will not likely be able to absorb all of these increases in plate production capacity. Rather, it appears that oversupply will persist in the near future and that substantial amounts of this new plate production will be directed towards export markets as Russian steelmakers strive to maintain high capacity utilization rates.

  13. In terms of capacity utilization, data obtained from the WSD and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), indicate that the Russian steel producers are operating at very high capacity rates, ranging from 85% to over 90%, and will continue to post utilization rates above 90% in the coming years.178

  14. Regarding exports of steel, Russia was ranked as the third largest exporter of steel products in the world in 2006, attaining 31 million mt of exports or some 11% of total global exports.179

  15. Information on the record also shows that, over the years, Russian exports of heavy plate have always been greater than import tonnages. In 2004, Russian steelmakers exported over 1.3 million mt of heavy plate while they imported 760,000 mt. With a difference of some 574,000 mt, Russia is a net exporter of heavy plate.180

  16. One Russian producer indicated that its new facilities are working at full capacity for sales of steel products in the Russian and export markets. MMK noted that its products are sold to more than 70 countries worldwide181 and exports accounted for 46.5% of its shipments in 2006,182 thus demonstrating that it is an export-dependant producer and that it uses export markets to ensure high utilization rates.

  17. According to the OECD, the Russian domestic market will consume only 55% of its steel production by 2010,183 thus demonstrating that the Russian steel industry will be characterized by a very strong dependency on exports.

  18. The wide-plate market is largely served by world leaders in Japan and Germany.184 This would make large-scale exports of wide plate difficult or improbable for Russian wide plate producers. An alternative would be to reorient some this production towards plate for stationary tanks, shipbuilding, heavy machine-building and bridge building.

  19. As for economic activity, from 2004 to 2005, Russia experienced a stable growth of GDP in the proximity of 6%.185 In Q1 2007, demand for steel products remained strong given that the country was experiencing a construction boom. Recent reports indicate that since the month of May 2007, there has been a slowdown in the Russian market for steel products. In reaction to the May slowdown, several producers were actively soliciting business in foreign markets186 and export plate price offerings, from Russia, for the month of June were lowered by US$25 a mt, to US$640, as compared with the previous month.187

  20. In looking at the developments of Russian export plate prices for the last 12 months, from July 2006 to June 2007, the evidence indicates that prices ranged from a low of US$535 a mt in December 2006188 to a high of US$665 in May 2007.189 This price variance of US$130 per mt, or nearly 25%, is quite significant.

  21. Indeed, when faced with a slowdown in the domestic market,190 Russian producers can be flexible with pricing to make sales in export markets by offering a significant degree of discounting. Price offerings during the months of November 2006 to February 2007 ranged between US$535 mt191 to US$555192 thus illustrating the pricing pressures and the propensity to lower export prices resulting from a depressed domestic market. The CIS Metals Report offered the following explanation of why the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) exports increased during this domestic slowdown, it is “largely since producers are unwilling to reduce utilization of capacity.”193

  22. The evidence on the record indicates that there will be lacklustre demand in foreign markets such as Europe and the Middle East in the months of July and August194 and the forecast for the second half of 2007 shows no sign of recovery but of further softening in the Russian demand for flat steel products,195 with prices also set to decline.196

  23. Adding to the pressure facing Russian steelmakers is the fact that China is now exporting, as discussed previously in the report. As a result of China’s presence, the evidence on the record indicates that, “CIS producers are losing their stake in emerging countries and will reorient exports towards mature markets like the EU and NAFTA.”197 As such, in facing global competition, Russian steelmakers will likely be compelled to target alternative markets.

  24. These slowdowns in export and domestic markets will be of great concern for Russian steelmakers and they will need to seek other markets for their excess production in order to maintain high utilization rates. As Mechel indicated, export sales “allow us to diversify our sales and reduce our reliance on the Russian market in the event that it were to experience a downturn.”198

  25. In addition to the Canadian anti-dumping measures in place against Russia on steel plate, eight other countries also have measures in place covering a wide variety of steel products.199 These measures, taken against Russia, suggest a propensity to dump other steel products.

  26. Compounding these difficulties is the fact that Russian mills are also subject to steel import quota restrictions by the European Union (EU), on flat and long products, including steel plate. In 2005, the quota for heavy plate was established at 190,593 mt and marginally increased to 195,358 mt in 2006.200 In regard to quantitative quotas for 2007, negotiations are still ongoing. These measures limit the ability of Russian steelmakers to export their increasing production of steel plate to the EU market.

  27. As significant new steel plate capacity is coming on stream in 2007 and in future years, competition is likely to become fierce among the Russian producers and reliance on exports appears set to increase. As MMK recently indicated, “the company is a tough sell in a market already crowded with Russian steelmakers.”201

  28. As witnessed during the first quarter of 2007, even in the presence of robust demand coupled with the rising prices achieved in its domestic market, Russian mills exported significant volumes of steel products to the EU and captured 21% of their import quota allocation by the end of February.202 Furthermore, one Russian producer, Mechel, offered its commercial hot-rolled plate in the domestic market at large discounts as this positive price outlook in Russia prompted an increase in competition from imports of other countries entering Russia.203 These actions by Russian steelmakers clearly exhibit their tendencies to increase exports even in the presence of a favourable domestic market and demonstrate that they can take significant measures with pricing in order to secure sales and maintain high utilization rates.

  29. As for future sales strategies, Severstal and Evraz indicated that their main focus in the years to come will be the Russian market. However, the evidence indicates that more than 40% of their steel production is destined for foreign markets.204 NLMK indicated that although the market for finished steel in Russia is improving, domestic sales account for only 30% of its production. As in the past, the international markets will represent the greatest opportunities for NLMK in the future.205 It is noteworthy that on January 1, 2006, NLMK posted a capacity utilization rate of 101.7% for its hot rolling plant.206

  30. It is apparent that Russia is building up steel plate capacity well in excess of the expected levels of domestic demand and will become a significantly larger exporter, in the near future. As the growth in capacity is set to come on stream in the foreseeable future, it is likely that Russian producers will lower their export prices to make sales, especially with a commodity product and in the presence of fewer market opportunities.

  31. In examining the domestic and export prices of Russian steelmakers, the limited evidence on the record suggests that steel plate appear to be dumped into foreign markets. In the period of August to September 2006, commodity plate prices in the Russian market were in the proximity of US$700 a mt207 as compared to export prices ranging from US$550 to US$560 a mt.208

  32. Overall, Russian exporters have not been able to maintain their sales level of subject plate to Canada. This could indicate that Russian exporters have been unable to compete in the Canadian market at non-dumped prices.209

  33. Russia has huge production capacity of steel plate, which dwarfs the size of the Canadian market.210 Given their excess capacity, Russian firms could supply the Canadian market at a greater level than they currently do, if anti-dumping duties were removed and they were able to export at dumped prices.

  34. As previously noted, price is a major factor for commodity products such as steel plate. The conditions characterizing the Russian steel plate industry coupled with the competition from China in other export markets, increases the likelihood that Russian exporters will have to compete against the increasing low-priced competition in the Canadian market from several foreign countries211 to regain their volumes and market share if the order is allowed to expire. Ultimately, with fewer export markets remaining available and in the absence of the order, it is likely that Russian exports to Canada would resume at dumped prices.

  35. Based on the high levels of excess Russian capacity coming on stream in the next few years, a dependency on export markets to keep capacity utilization rates high, anti-dumping measures taken by various countries; quota restrictions by the EU, and the lack of a demonstrated ability to compete in the Canadian market at non-dumped prices, the President determined that the expiry of the order is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping into Canada of certain hot-rolled steel plate originating in or exported from Russia.

South Africa

  1. As noted earlier, no South African producers provided a response to the ERQ for this expiry review. Additionally, no case arguments or reply submissions were submitted by South African producers. In the absence of information from any South African steel plate producers, the CBSA’s analysis relied on various market sources and independent trade reports.

  2. South Africa is one of the world’s major carbon steel producing countries. It was ranked the 21st largest crude steel producing country in the world with an output of 9.7 million mt in 2006, representing 0.8% of world production. It is also the largest steel producer in Africa, representing just over half of the total crude steel production on the continent.212

  3. The International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) ranked South Africa as the 9th largest net exporter of steel in the world during 2004, exporting over 3.2 million mt of primary steel.213 The South Africa Iron and Steel Institute’s (SAISI) statistics regarding total domestic production and total domestic consumption make it apparent that during the period of review, half of South Africa’s production remained available for export markets.214 In addition, trade data indicates that South African producers actively trade with many countries at fluctuating volumes, demonstrating that they are able to alternate between attractive and unattractive export markets to maintain their capacity utilization.215 These points combined indicate that South Africa continues to behave as an export oriented country.

  4. There are currently five producers of primary carbon steel in South Africa, however Mittal Steel South Africa Limited (Mittal Steel) and Highveld Steel and Vanadium Corporation Limited (Highveld) are the only two producers of the hot-rolled steel plate subject to this review.216 Mittal Steel is the dominant domestic producer accounting for 7.3 million mt of steel production per year, making it the biggest producer on the African continent.217 Highveld is a smaller player, producing roughly 860,000 mt of crude steel per year.218 Although these two producers did not participate in the proceedings of this expiry review, they both participated in the most recent CBSA steel plate reinvestigation, which concluded in February 2006, during which they were provided with updated normal values.

  5. Market conditions in South Africa have been favourable with GDP growth rates averaging 5% during the period of review, which has been almost synchronous with the world’s economic growth rate.219 The steel industry within South Africa has experienced high growth buoyed by demand resulting from extensive capital expenditure programs announced by the government, the mining and the chemical sectors. As well, there has been high demand for steel from the construction sector, which has been fuelled by the preparation for the World Cup Soccer to be held in South Africa in 2010.220 However, despite this current trend of positive growth, SAISI indicates that there are signs of the economy slowing.221

  6. The general theme of the South African steel industry during the period of review is increased domestic demand, strong profits and production capacity expansion. Stimulated by a strong economy, domestic consumption of primary steel carbon products has been on the rise, aside from a small drop in demand in 2005.222 Domestic steel sales rose 26% to a record 5.34 million mt in 2006 accounting for 55% of South African production.223 South Africa steel exports fluctuated during this period increasing by 8% from 2004 to 2005 to 3.4 million mt and then falling sharply by 31% to 2.4 million mt in 2006.224 It is important to note however, that these numbers cover all steel products. Looking closer at the trade data, during this period of substantial steel export decline, carbon steel plate exports actually increased by 25% in 2006 to 350,000 mt.225 Additionally, looking at both Mittal Steel and Highveld annual reports as well at trade data from SAISI, it can be seen that of total plate production in South Africa, 67% was exported in 2005 and 73% in 2006.226 This demonstrates export orientation with respect to plate.

  7. Evidence from the record indicates that Asian and African markets have been the major export destinations for South African steel producers.227 However during the latter half of the period of review, trade statistics show that South African producers have withdrawn from Asian markets as China continues to saturate the region with steel exports.228 Mittal Steel has supported this with announcements that Asian markets have become less attractive and that it will instead focus on African and international niche markets.229

  8. South African exports to the Asian markets have dropped from 41% in 2005 to 24% in 2006, which reflect a drop of almost 1 million mt.230 Interestingly, in a time of total steel exports falling by 31% and South African producers shifting towards more attractive markets, NAFTA countries saw an increase in the proportion of South African steel exports from 8% to 13% over the 2005 and 2006 period. Also during this same period, NAFTA countries saw the largest overall volume increase with respect to South African steel exports out of all their steel trading partners.231 This indicates that in a time of unprecedented domestic demand in South Africa there is still an interest in exporting into North American markets.

  9. In addition, as exports are diverted away from Asian markets towards African markets, it should be noted that WSD forecast that overall growth rate for steel consumption for the African continent between 2004 and 2010 to be negative 0.3%. This forecast could further magnify the need for South Africa to find alternative export markets such as Canada to maintain capacity utilization.

  10. During the period of review, subject goods from South Africa were imported into Canada at low volumes. These volumes were significantly below the volumes recorded before the original finding was put in place, indicating that although they still have an interest in the Canadian market, they are unable to ship substantial quantities with normal values in place.232 An additional point to note is that after the most recent reinvestigation in February 2006, when updated normal values were issued, no shipments occurred into the Canadian market until the end of the year when a combination of significant plate price increases and Rand devaluation allowed them to achieve sales at normal values.233

  11. Examining trade statistics from South Africa’s Department of Trade and Industry, it can be seen that during the period of review export volumes of carbon steel plate remained at almost their highest levels in the decade.234 From this data, one can also compare South Africa’s average export prices of carbon steel plate sold on the global market. When examining these prices against the CBSA’s normal values determined in February 2006, it is apparent that these export prices were consistently below normal values, indicating that if anti-dumping measures were allowed to expire, they would be open to trade into Canada at these lower prices.235

  12. With respect to production capacity, Steel Plate Quarterly states that both Mittal Steel and Highveld each have a steel plate capacity of 600,000 mt per year, which is approximately twice the size of all imports of certain hot-rolled steel plate into Canada in 2006.236 Looking at annual plate production levels in South Africa, it appears that the producers are using this capacity to produce other steel products, as in 2006 only 480,000 mt of steel plate were produced.237 Considering that Metal Bulletin believes steel plate to be the strongest product on the market at present, and that some mills are considering switching production from coil to plate238, South African producers could potentially increase plate production closer to its capacity of 1.2 million mt and enjoy these strong prices on the export market, especially those found in North America.239

  13. With regard to capacity expansion, Mittal Steel has embarked on an extensive and wide-ranging capital expenditure programme that will increase output by up to 2.5 million mt over the next three years.240 Similarly, Highveld Steel announced in 2006 that a value adding expansion programme is in place that will increase steel output by 20% or roughly 170,000 mt.241

  14. Even with strong steel demand in their domestic market, only a million mt of new demand is estimated in South Africa over the next 5 years.242 Therefore it appears that these expansion plans will lead to over 1.5 million mt of steel output that will be directed into export markets.

  15. Furthermore, as of December 2006, inventories of all carbon steel products in South Africa grew to their second highest level in a decade, estimated at almost 1.8 million mt.243 Specifically, inventories of hot-rolled flat products rose sharply by 22% from the same point in 2005.244 This rise in inventory could lead to lower levels of domestic sales of steel in the near term, resulting in South African producers focusing more on export market sales to maintain their capacity utilization rates.

  16. South African steel producers have exhibited a history of dumping steel products into the Canadian market. Canada currently has in place measures against South Africa with regard to hot-rolled carbon steel sheet, which has recently been the subject of an expiry review, resulting in a decision to keep trade measures in place. As well, South Africa has in place nine other trade measures imposed by other WTO members, such as the United States, with respect to steel products, some specifically including hot-rolled carbon steel flat products.245 Not only does this indicate a propensity to dump, it also results in fewer markets available to absorb South African steel exports, which will be increasing due to their extensive capacity expansion projects.

  17. Recent developments in the steel industry have been towards mergers and acquisitions.246 Mittal Steel, now under control by Arcelor Mittal, the world’s leading steel producer, has industrial operations in 27 countries globally including production facilities in Canada.247 It is important to note that while Mittal Steel does have affiliate presence in Canada, which would normally mitigate the risk of market disruptions, Mittal Canada Inc. does not currently have plate producing capacity.

  18. A final point to observe is that steel plate is a commodity product whose market is highly price sensitive. The structure of the Canadian market has recently changed, allowing imports to take over a dominant proportion of Canadian steel plate consumption, increasing price competition from several foreign sources.248 For example, the record indicates that steel plate from certain countries was imported in 2006 at prices significantly lower than the average price of the Canadian domestic producers.249 As price is a major factor for commodity products such as steel plate, South African exporters will have to compete against these low-priced imports to regain their volumes and market share achieved when they were selling at dumped prices. The conditions characterizing the South African steel plate industry, and the increasing competition from China in other export markets, increases the likelihood that South African exporters will have to compete with these lower priced imports to regain market share in Canada if the order is allowed to expire.

  19. Based on their increased volume of steel plate exports; their export orientation to maintain utilization rates; their increase in trade activity in the NAFTA region due to withdrawal from Asian markets; an apparent inability to compete in Canada with trade measures in place; significant trade volumes into other countries at prices apparently below normal values; substantial unused production capacity for steel plate; reports of significant new capacity coming online that is well in excess of potential domestic demand; the significant number of anti-dumping measures in place against steel products from South Africa and the clear history of dumping steel plate and other steel products into Canada; combined with the presence of low-priced imports from other countries with which South African exporters will likely have to compete with to secure sales to Canada; the President determined that the expiry of the order is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping into Canada of certain hot-rolled steel plate originating in or exported from South Africa.

CONCLUSION

  1. For the purpose of making a determination in this expiry review investigation, the CBSA conducted its analysis within the scope of the factors contained in subsection 37.2(1) of the SIMR. Based on the foregoing consideration of pertinent factors and analysis of evidence on the record, on August 23, 2007, pursuant to paragraph 76.03(7)(a) of SIMA, the President of the CBSA determined that the expiry of the order made by the Tribunal on January 10, 2003, in Expiry Review No. RR-2001-006, continuing with amendment, its finding made on October 27, 1997, in Inquiry No. NQ-97-001 concerning certain hot-rolled steel plate originating in or exported from the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of South Africa and the Russian Federation was likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of the goods into Canada.

FUTURE ACTION

  1. On August 24, 2007, the Tribunal commenced its inquiry to determine whether the expiry of the order is likely to result in injury or retardation with respect to goods from China, South Africa and Russia. The Tribunal will make its decision by January 9, 2008.

  2. If the Tribunal determines that the expiry of the order with respect to goods from China, South Africa and Russia is likely to result in injury or retardation, the order will be continued in respect of those goods, with or without amendment. If this is the case, the CBSA will continue to levy anti-dumping duties on dumped importations of certain hot-rolled steel plate.

  3. If the Tribunal determines that the expiry of the order with respect to the goods from China, South Africa and Russia is unlikely to result in injury or retardation, the order will be rescinded in respect of those goods. Anti-dumping duties would no longer be levied on importations of certain hot-rolled steel plate beginning on the date the order is rescinded.

INFORMATION

  1. For further information, please contact the officer listed below:

Mail:
SIMA Registry and Disclosure Unit
Canada Border Services Agency
Anti-dumping and Countervailing Program
100 Metcalfe Street, 11th Floor
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0L8
Canada

Telephone:
Matthew Lerette 613-954-7398

Fax:
613-948-4844

E-mail:
simaregistry-depotlmsi@cbsa-asfc.gc.ca

Web Site :
www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/sima-lmsi/menu-eng.html



M.R. Jordan
Director General
Trade Programs Directorate





  1. Exhibit 7: CITT – Notice of Expiry of Order in Expiry No. LE-2006-003 concerning hot-rolled carbon steel plate originating in or exported from the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of South Africa and the Russian Federation.

  2. On January 21, 1999, in Inquiry No. NQ-97-001 Remand, the CITT issued a separate finding for Mexico, a NAFTA country.

  3. Exhibit 2: CITT – Orders and Statement of Reasons in Expiry Review No. RR-2001-006.

  4. Exhibit 5: CBSA – Customs Notice 640 regarding the conclusion of a reinvestigation of normal values and export prices with respect to certain hot-rolled carbon steel plate and high-strength low-alloy plate originating in or exported from the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of South Africa and the Russian Federation.

  5. The finding was amended on August 23, 2004, in Interim Review No. RD-2004-002, to exclude a specific pressure vessel quality plate product.

  6. Exhibit 2: Canadian International Trade Tribunal (CITT) – Orders and Statement of Reasons in Expiry Review No. RR-2001-006 regarding certain hot-rolled carbon steel plate originating in Mexico, and originating in or exported from the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of South Africa and the Russian Federation. Note that the CITT rescinded its finding with respect to Mexico.

  7. Exhibit 31: Algoma Steel Inc. – Response to the Canadian Producer Expiry Review Questionnaire.

  8. Exhibit 31: Algoma Steel Inc. – Response to the Canadian Producer Expiry Review Questionnaire.

  9. Exhibit 31: Algoma Steel Inc. - Response to the Canadian Producer Expiry Review Questionnaire.

  10. Exhibit 40: Ipsco Inc. - Response to the Canadian Producer Expiry Review Questionnaire.

  11. Exhibit 40: Ipsco Inc. - Response to the Canadian Producer Expiry Review Questionnaire.

  12. Exhibit 40: Ipsco Inc. - Response to the Canadian Producer Expiry Review Questionnaire.

  13. Exhibit 49: CBSA - Apparent Canadian market statistics for certain hot-rolled steel plate during the period of review January 1, 2004, to March 31, 2007.

  14. Exhibit 42: CBSA - Updated enforcement information in respect to certain hot-rolled steel plate originating in or exported from the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of South Africa and the Russian Federation for the period of review, January 1, 2004, to March 31, 2007.

  15. Exhibit 11: CBSA/CITT - Expiry Review Questionnaire to Canadian producers. (English only).

  16. Exhibit 9: CBSA/CITT - Expiry Review Questionnaire to exporters. (English only).

  17. Stemcor is a non-resident importer and provided only a non-confidential (Part A) response to the Expiry Review Questionnaire to importers.

  18. Exhibit 10: CBSA/CITT - Expiry Review Questionnaire to importers. (English only).

  19. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pp. 21 and 22.

  20. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 22.

  21. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 23.

  22. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 10.

  23. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pp. 15 to 17.

  24. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 9 and Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 25.

  25. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 9.

  26. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 25.

  27. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pp. 26 and 27.

  28. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pp. 9 and 10 and Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 18.

  29. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pp. 18 and 19.

  30. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 20.

  31. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 20 and Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 14.

  32. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pp. 9 to 12.

  33. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 9.

  34. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 21.

  35. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 15.

  36. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 14.

  37. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pp. 42 to 47 and Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pp. 5 to 9.

  38. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 47.

  39. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pp. 42 to 46.

  40. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 23.

  41. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pp. 4 and 5.

  42. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 4.

  43. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 8.

  44. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 41.

  45. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 41.

  46. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 42.

  47. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 12.

  48. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 14.

  49. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pp. 10 to 14.

  50. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 16.

  51. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 13.

  52. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pp. 12 and 19.

  53. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 30.

  54. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 32.

  55. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 31.

  56. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 31.

  57. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pp.10 and 11.

  58. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 33 and Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc.- Case brief, pg. 6.

  59. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pp. 6 and 7.

  60. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 6.

  61. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 6.

  62. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 36.

  63. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 36.

  64. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 16.

  65. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pp. 17 to 18.

  66. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 8.

  67. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 8.

  68. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 15.

  69. Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 37.

  70. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 8.

  71. Exhibit 63: Ipsco Inc. - Case brief, pg. 8.

  72. Exhibit 51: Baosteel Group Corporation - Non-confidential response to the Exporter Expiry Review Questionnaire, pg. 22.

  73. CITT Statement of Reasons, RR-98-004, pp. 13, publicly available at: http://www.citt-tcce.gc.ca/dumping/reviews/orders/rr98004_e.asp.

  74. Exhibit 25: Tab 4, International Iron and Steel Institute, “World produces 1,239.5 mmt of crude steel in 2006”, January 22, 2007.

  75. Exhibit 25: Tab 8, Iron & Steel Statistics Bureau, “Exports & Imports”, Retrieved May 11, 2007.

  76. Exhibit 24: Tab 2, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “Global Steel Export Pricing Forecast to 2015”, June 2006.

  77. Exhibit 24: Tabs 4, 5, 7, 8, 9 and 10, Metal Bulletin Research – Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, “Flat steel product analysis”, Extracts from January to June 2007.

  78. Exhibit 33: Tab 11, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “Financial Dynamics of International Steelmakers”, March 2007, pp. 1-42.

  79. Exhibit 19: Tab 24, China Economic Review, “Tax placed on steel exports”, May 24, 2007.

  80. Exhibit 25: Tab 4, International Iron and Steel Institute, “World produces 1,239.5 mmt of crude steel in 2006”, January 22, 2007.

  81. Exhibit 19: Tab 6, Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB), “Steel News – Steel Statistics in the News”, May 1, 2007.

  82. Exhibit 19: Tab 4, International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI), “IISI Short Range Outlook for Apparent Steel Demand – 2007-2008”, March 26, 2007.

  83. Exhibit 19: Tab 7, Resource Investor (Inter-Fax China), “China’s Strong Steel Product Exports Aid Domestic Market Balance”, April 30, 2007.

  84. Exhibit 33: Tab 13, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “2007 – Revisiting 2006 or 2005? Wild Cards Galore”, December 4, 2006, page 19.

  85. Exhibit 33: Tab 11, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “Financial Dynamics of International Steelmakers”, March 2007, pp. 1-3.

  86. Exhibit 51: Baosteel Group Corporation – Non-confidential response to the Exporter Expiry Review Questionnaire, June 11, 2007, pg. 21.

  87. Exhibit 18: Tab 38, Metal Bulletin, “Mexico Plans Anti-Dumping Case Against Imports of Chinese Hot Rolled Coil” & “World faces 300m tonnes surplus by 2010”, November 6, 2006.

  88. Exhibit 18: Tab 46, Steel Business Briefing, “China levies export tax on steel”, May 22, 2007.

  89. Exhibit 19: Tab 5, Daily Times, “China to impose steel export licences from May 20”, May 1, 2007.

  90. Exhibit 18: Tab 49, Steel Business Briefing, “US mills go negative on China export tax”, May 23, 2007.

  91. Exhibit 18: Tab 42, Metal Bulletin, “Outlook seems rosy to Chinese exporters”, April 30, 2007 and Exhibit 18: Tab 19, Metal Bulletin, “Not playing the game”, April 13, 2007.

  92. Exhibit 18: Tab 23, Metal Bulletin, “Chinese Exports Will Disrupt Traditional Trade Flows”, March 19, 2007.

  93. Exhibit 19, Tab 7, Resource Investor (Inter-Fax China), “China’s Strong Steel Product Exports Aid Domestic Market Balance”, April 30, 2007.

  94. Exhibit 19: Tab 5, Daily Times, “China to impose steel export licences from May 20”, May 1, 2007.

  95. Exhibit 19: Tab 3, Resource Investor (Inter-Fax China), “China’s NDRC Says Steel Product Consumption Will Slow This Year”, April 2, 2007.

  96. Exhibit 18: Tab 28, Metal Bulletin, “Economic body tells Hebei province to act on outdated steelmaking capacity”, November 20, 2006.

  97. Exhibit 33: Tab 6, Steel Business Briefing, SBB Analytics China, June 11, 2007, pg. 6.

  98. Exhibit 33: Tab 10, Iron & Steel Technology, Ask World Steel Dynamics – “Chinese Steel – No Worry”, June 2007.

  99. Exhibit 18: Tab 25, Metal Bulletin, “Market Share of China’s Top Steelmakers Fell in 2006” & “Chinese steel exports hit 49m tonnes in 2006”, February 5, 2007.

  100. Exhibit 33: Tab 11, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “Financial Dynamics of International Steelmakers”, March 2007, pp. 1-42.

  101. Exhibit 19: Tab 6, Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB), “Steel News - Steel Statistics in the News”, May 1, 2007, pg. 4.

  102. Exhibit 33: Tab 11, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “Financial Dynamics of International Steelmakers”, March 2007, pp 1-42.

  103. Exhibit 51: Baosteel Group Corporation - Non-confidential response to the Exporter Expiry Review Questionnaire, June 11, 2007, pg. 21.

  104. Exhibit 27: Angang Steel Company Ltd. - Non-confidential response to the Exporter Expiry Review Questionnaire, May 30, 2007, pg. 12.

  105. Exhibit 33: Tab 8, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “Global Steel Mill Product Matrix: 1992 to 2004 2015 Forecast”, May 2006, pp. 1-29.

  106. Exhibit 19: Tab 17, International Herald Tribune, “Angang Steel to sell shares to fund new mill”, April 11, 2007.

  107. Exhibit 18: Tab 45, Steel Business Briefing, “Anshan’s Bayuquan project now more than half complete”, May 18, 2007.

  108. Exhibit 51: Baosteel Group Corporation - Non-Confidential response to the Exporter Expiry Review Questionnaire, June 7, 2007, pp. 15-16.

  109. Exhibit 33: Tab 8, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “Global Steel Mill Product Matrix: 1992 to 2004 2015 Forecast”, May 2006, pp. 1-29.

  110. Exhibit 33: Tab 3, Steel Business Briefing, SBB Analytics China, May 21, 2007, pg. 6.

  111. Exhibit 47: CBSA - Revised Canadian import statistics for the period of review (Non-confidential version) January 1, 2004 to March 31, 2007, June 8, 2007.

  112. Exhibit 33: Tab 8, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “Global Steel Mill Product Matrix: 1992 to 2004 2015 Forecast”, May 2006, pp. 1-29.

  113. Exhibit 33: Tab 3, Steel Business Briefing, SBB Analytics China, May 21, 2007, pg. 6.

  114. Exhibit 47: CBSA - Revised Canadian import statistics for the period of review (Non-confidential version) January 1, 2004 to March 31, 2007, June 8, 2007.

  115. Exhibit 33: Tab 8, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “Global Steel Mill Product Matrix: 1992 to 2004 2015 Forecast”, May 2006, pp. 1-29.

  116. Exhibit 33: Tab 3, Steel Business Briefing, SBB Analytics China, May 21, 2007, pg. 4.

  117. Exhibit 18: Tab 13, Metal Bulletin, “(AMM) Siemens VAI to supply new Wuhan Steel mill”, February 9, 2007.

  118. Exhibit 18: Tab 9, Metal Bulletin, “Anyang Steel to complete 1.5m tpy HR mill in April”, February 6, 2007.

  119. Exhibit 18: Tab 15, Metal Bulletin, “(AMM) SMS Demag gets supply order for China heavy-plate mill”, April 11, 2007.

  120. Exhibit 18: Tab 19, Metal Bulletin, “Maanshan Steel’s net profit falls 17% to $317m [CORRECT]”, April 19, 2007.

  121. Exhibit 18: Tab 22, Metal Bulletin, “Tangshan Iron & Steel in north…”, August 14, 2006.

  122. Exhibit 18: Tab 34, Metal Bulletin, “China boosts heavy plate capacity”, October 30, 2006.

  123. Exhibit 18: Tab 34, Metal Bulletin, “China boosts heavy plate capacity”, October 30, 2006.

  124. Exhibit 19: Tab 25, SteelGuru.com (MySteel.net), “Valin’s Xiangtan to build 2nd plate mill”, May 19, 2007.

  125. Exhibit 33: Tab 1, Metal Bulletin, “China’s Wuyang Steel commissions 1m tpy plate mill”, May 30, 2007.

  126. Exhibit 33: Tab 3, Steel Business Briefing, SBB Analytics China, May 21, 2007, pg. 4.

  127. Exhibit 33: Tab 3, Steel Business Briefing, SBB Analytics China, May 21, 2007, pg. 4.

  128. The steel product consumption growth rate is a rate that indicates consumption of total steel produced by China by both the domestic and export markets.

  129. Exhibit 19, Tab 3, Resource Investor (Inter-Fax China), “China’s NDRC Says Steel Product Consumption Will Slow This Year”, April 2, 2007.

  130. Exhibit 19, Tab 12, Purchasing Magazine Online, “China’s metals output stays ahead of consumption”, May 3, 2007.

  131. Exhibit 33: Tab 12, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “Chinese Steel: Changing Consolidating No longer conquering”, March 26, 2007, pg. 38.

  132. Exhibit 47: CBSA - Revised Canadian import statistics for the period of review (Non-confidential version) January 1, 2004 to March 31, 2007, June 8, 2007.

  133. Exhibit 19: Tab 6, Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB), “Steel News – Steel Statistics in the News”, May 1, 2007, pg. 5.

  134. Exhibit 25: Tab 2, Steel Business Briefing, “Plate market watches China’s next move”, September 13, 2006, pg. 1.

  135. Exhibit 33: Tab 4, Steel Business Briefing, SBB Analytics China, May 28, 2007, pg. 7.

  136. Exhibit 18: Tab 27, Metal Bulletin, “Heavy plate market awaits impact of stockpiled Chinese imports”, January 15, 2007.

  137. Exhibit 25: Tab 2, Steel Business Briefing, “Plate market watches China’s next move”, September 13, 2006, pg. 1.

  138. Exhibit 19: Tab 19, Steel Times International, “China undercutting S African steel sector”, April 11, 2007.

  139. The primary steel industry covers primary steel products - created when the steel is initially cast and formed. In general terms, long and flat-rolled products are the two main categories of primary steel products.

  140. Exhibit 47: CBSA - Revised Canadian import statistics for the period of review (Non-confidential version) January 1, 2004 to March 31, 2007. June 8, 2007.

  141. Exhibit 47: CBSA - Revised Canadian import statistics for the period of review (Non-confidential version) January 1, 2004 to March 31, 2007. June 8, 2007.

  142. Exhibit 33: Tab 12, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “Chinese Steel: Changing Consolidating No longer conquering”, March 26, 2007, pg. 17.

  143. Exhibit 33: Tab 14, SteelBenchmarker (World Steel Dynamics/AMM/Metal Bulletin), Extracts from Price History – Tables and Charts, March 2007, pg. 7.

  144. Exhibit 33: Tab 14, SteelBenchmarker (World Steel Dynamics/AMM/Metal Bulletin), Extracts from Price History – Tables and Charts, March 2007, pg. 10.

  145. Exhibit 33: Tab 14, SteelBenchmarker (World Steel Dynamics/AMM/Metal Bulletin), Extracts from Price History – Tables and Charts, March 2007, pg. 12.

  146. Exhibit 33: Tab 14, SteelBenchmarker (World Steel Dynamics/AMM/Metal Bulletin), Extracts from Price History – Tables and Charts, March 2007, pg. 9.

  147. Exhibit 33: Tab 14, SteelBenchmarker (World Steel Dynamics/AMM/Metal Bulletin), Extracts from Price History – Tables and Charts, March 2007, pg. 7.

  148. Exhibit 45: Trade measures relating to steel products as imposed by other WTO Members against the subject countries involved in the current expiry review on certain hot-rolled steel plate, June 8, 2007.

  149. Exhibit 51: Baosteel Group Corporation – Non-confidential response to the Exporter Expiry Review Questionnaire, June 7, 2007, pp. 11 and 12.

  150. Exhibit 18: Tab 47, Steel Business Briefing, “Mexican imports of flat products see sharp fall”, May 21, 2007.

  151. Exhibit 27: Angang Steel Company Ltd. – Non-confidential response to the Exporter Expiry Review Questionnaire, May 30, 2007, pg. 6.

  152. Exhibit 18: Tab 36, Steel Business Briefing, “Japanese carbon imports dip 7% in fiscal 06/07”, May 8, 2007.

  153. Exhibit 19: Tab 6, Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB), “Steel News – Steel Statistics in the News”, May 1, 2007, pg. 5.

  154. Exhibit 19: Tab 20, Steel Times International (MEPS), “Minimal impact from Chinese steel export rebate cut”, November 1, 2006.

  155. Exhibit 19: Tab 22, Steel Times International (Daily Vietnam News), “Vietnam considers anti-dumping action against Chinese”, September 28, 2006.

  156. Exhibit 6: CBSA - Copies of Ruling letters issued to exporters at the conclusion of the reinvestigation of normal values and export prices in respect of certain hot-rolled carbon steel plate and high-strength low-alloy plate, originating in or exported from the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of South Africa and the Russian Federation. February 3, 2006, and May 1, 2006.

  157. Exhibit 5: CBSA – Customs Notice 640 regarding the conclusion of a reinvestigation of normal values and export prices with respect to certain hot-rolled carbon steel plate and high-strength low-alloy plate originating in or exported from the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of South Africa and the Russian Federation. May 1, 2006.

  158. Exhibit 21: Tab 5, www.nlmksteel.com, “Production and economic figures of largest Russian steel-making companies in 2004-2006” and Exhibit 35: Tab 10, ”Russian steel overview: Production and Market Share”, Retrieved May 25, 2007 from www.severstal.com.

  159. Evraz includes Nizhny Tagil (NTMK), West Siberian (ZapSib - ZSMK) and Novokuznetsk (NKMK).

  160. Metalloinvest includes Ural Steel and Oskol Electrometallurgical Integrated Works (OEMK).

  161. Exhibit 25: Tab 4, International Iron and Steel Institute, “World produces 1,239.5 mmt of crude steel in 2006”, January 22, 2007.

  162. Exhibit 25: Tab 6, International Iron and Steel Institute, “March 2007 Crude Steel Production”, April 20, 2007.

  163. Exhibit 34: Tab 5, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “Global Steel Mill Product Matrix: 1992 to 2004 2015 Forecast”, May 2006.

  164. Exhibit 20: Tab 1, Metal Bulletin, “Russian mini-mill project will add 20 million tpy”, March 22, 2004.

  165. Exhibit 20: Tab 6, Metal Bulletin, “Splendid Isolation – Company profile: Amurmetal”, August 15, 2005.

  166. Exhibit 20: Tab 11, Metal Bulletin, “Severstal plans to focus on sales to domestic market”, April 24, 2006.

  167. Exhibit 21: Tab 11, Ural Business Consulting, “Evraz Group’s net profit goes up 50% in 2006”, February 5, 2007.

  168. Exhibit 34: Tab 1, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “Steel Success Strategies – Europe IV”, December 3 – 5 2006 and January 2007.

  169. Exhibit 21: Tab 6, Metalloinvest, “Russian sector grows”, January 8, 2007.

  170. Exhibit 20: Tab 17, Metal Bulletin, “Severstal will dismantle and …”, January 15, 2007.

  171. Exhibit 35: Tab 4, SMS Demag AG Press Release, “Ural Steel and SMS Demag AG consolidate strategic partnership”, June 7, 2006.

  172. A “mill 5000” can produce rolled outputs with widths up to 4,850mm. These wide plates are further processed into pipes.

  173. Exhibit 52: Tab 1, Severstal, Extracts from website, Retrieved May 25 and June 13, 2007 from www.severstal.com.

  174. Exhibit 20: Tab 13, Metal Bulletin, “Russia’s Magnitogorsk Iron and …”, November 13, 2006, Exhibit 34: Tab 3, Metal Bulletin, “OMK breaks ground”, May 11, 2007, Exhibit 35: Tab 6, United Metallurgical Company: Press-Center, “No doubt, Russia is going to have a new mill 5000 and maybe 4 ones!”, September 29, 2006, Exhibit 35: Tab 7, Metalloinvest: Press Publications, “Russia Metalloinvest plans $3 bln steel investment”, October 6, 2006 and Exhibit 35: Tab 8, United Metallurgical Company: Press-Center, “Four metallurgical companies to build Mill- 5000”, October 16, 2006.

  175. Exhibit 34: Tab 3, Metal Bulletin, “OMK breaks ground”, May 11, 2007.

  176. Exhibit 35: Tab 7, Metalloinvest: Press Publications, “Russia Metalloinvest plans $3 bln steel investment”, October 6, 2006.

  177. Exhibit 21: Tab 10, SMS Demag AG Press Release, “MMK places an order for a continuous caster and a 5-m heavy plate mill”, February 1, 2007.

  178. Exhibit 54: Tab 1, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “The Age of Profits – Steel Strategist #32”, August 2006 and Exhibit 35: Tab 2, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Iron and steel production in Russia in 2005”, May 12, 2006.

  179. Exhibit 25: Tab 8, Iron & Steel Statistics Bureau, “Exports & Imports”, Retrieved May 11, 2007.

  180. Exhibit 34: Tab 5, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “Global Steel Mill Product Matrix: 1992 to 2004 2015 Forecast”, May 2006.

  181. Exhibit 34: Tab 1, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “Steel Success Strategies – Europe IV”, December 3 – 5 2006 and January 2007.

  182. Exhibit 35: Tab 18, Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works, Extracts from website, Retrieved June 4, 2007 from www.mmk.ru/eng.

  183. Exhibit 35: Tab 2, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Iron and steel production in Russia in 2005”, May 12, 2006.

  184. Exhibit 35: Tab 8, United Metallurgical Company: Press-Center, “Four metallurgical companies to build Mill- 5000”, October 16, 2006.

  185. Exhibit 21, Tab 4, MEPS, “Russian steel demand and output rising at a rapid pace”, September 2006 and Exhibit 52: Tab 3, Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works, Extracts from website, Retrieved May 30, 2007 from www.mmk.ru/eng.

  186. Exhibit 24: Tab 10, Metal Bulletin Research – Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, “Flat steel product analysis”, Extracts from June 2007.

  187. Exhibit 34: Tab 6, Metal Bulletin Research – Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, “Early global and emerging prices (US$/tonne) – Russia (Baltic/Black Sea) - Plate”, January to June 2007.

  188. Exhibit 20: Tab 16, Metal Bulletin Research – Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, “Early global and emerging prices (US$/tonne) – Russia (Baltic/Black Sea) - Plate”, July to December 2006.

  189. Exhibit 34: Tab 6, Metal Bulletin Research – Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, “Early global and emerging prices (US$/tonne) – Russia (Baltic/Black Sea) - Plate”, January to June 2007.

  190. Exhibit 21: Tab 17, Steel On The Net – CIS Metals Report, “Growing CIS demand, waning exports”, April 6, 2007.

  191. Exhibit 20: Tab 16, Metal Bulletin Research – Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, “Early global and emerging prices (US$/tonne) – Russia (Baltic/Black Sea) - Plate”, July to December 2006.

  192. Exhibit 34: Tab 6, Metal Bulletin Research – Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, “Early global and emerging prices (US$/tonne) – Russia (Baltic/Black Sea) - Plate”, January to June 2007.

  193. Exhibit 21: Tab 7, Steel On The Net – CIS Metals Report, “Rising costs, moderate steel demand”, January 20, 2007.

  194. Exhibit 34: Tab 7, Metal Bulletin Research - Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, “Regional highlights: CIS and Eastern Europe”, June 2007.

  195. Exhibit 24: Tab 9, Metal Bulletin Research – Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, “Flat steel product analysis”, Extracts from May 2007 and Exhibit 24: Tab 10, Metal Bulletin Research – Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, “Flat steel product analysis”, Extracts from June 2007.

  196. Exhibit 24: Tab 8, Metal Bulletin Research – Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, “Flat steel product analysis”, Extracts from April 2007.

  197. Exhibit 20: Tab 26, SBB Daily Briefing, “CIS poses greater threat to Europe than China: Eurometal” May 25, 2007 and Exhibit 35: Tab 15, Metal Expert, “CIS Markets Role”, Retrieved May 29, 2007.

  198. Exhibit 35: Tab 20, Mechel, Extracts from website, Retrieved May 25, 2007 from www.mechel.com.

  199. Exhibit 45: Trade measures relating to steel products as imposed by other WTO Members against the subject countries involved in the current expiry review on certain hot-rolled steel plate. June 8, 2007.

  200. Exhibit 21: Tab 1, Official Journal of the European Union, “Council Regulation … certain restrictions on imports of certain steel products from the Russian Federation”, November 22, 2005 (June 27, 2005).

  201. Exhibit 20: Tab 24, Metal Bulletin, “Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works …”, April 30, 2007.

  202. Exhibit 20: Tab 25, Metal Bulletin Research – Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, “Regional highlights: CIS and Eastern Europe”, April 2007.

  203. Exhibit 20: Tab 20, Metal Bulletin Research – Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, “Regional highlights: CIS and Eastern Europe”, February 2007.

  204. Exhibit 20: Tab 11, Metal Bulletin, “Severstal plans to focus on sales to domestic market”, April 24, 2006 and Exhibit 20: Tab 8, Metal Bulletin, “Evraz seeks outlets for 5m tpy of slab capacity”, October 17, 2005.

  205. Exhibit 34: Tab 4, Metal Bulletin, “NLMK rolls out strategy”, May 11, 2007.

  206. Exhibit 52: Tab 2, Novolipetsk Steel, Extracts from website, Retrieved May 15, 25 and June 13, 2007 from www.nlmksteel.com.

  207. Exhibit 25: Tab 2, Steel Business Briefing, “Plate market watches China’s next move”, September 13, 2006, Retrieved from www.steelbb.com.

  208. Exhibit 20: Tab 16, Metal Bulletin Research – Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, “Early global and emerging prices (US$/tonne) – Russia (Baltic/Black Sea) - Plate”, July to December 2006.

  209. Exhibit 43: CBSA – Updated enforcement information in respect to certain hot-rolled steel plate originating in or exported from the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of South Africa and the Russian Federation for the period of review, January 1, 2004, to March 31, 2007.

  210. Exhibit 48: CBSA - Apparent Canadian market statistics for certain hot-rolled steel plate during the period of review January 1, 2004, to March 31, 2007.

  211. Exhibit 46: CBSA - Revised Canadian import statistics for the period of review January 1, 2004, to March 31, 2007. (This supersedes Exhibit 12)

  212. Exhibit 23: Tab 1, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Overview of the primary steel industry in South Africa”.

  213. Exhibit 23: Tab 1, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Overview of the primary steel industry in South Africa” and Tab 2, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Steel statistics – Concise overview”.

  214. Exhibit 23: Tab 6, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Local sales of primary carbon steel products”, Tab 7, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Exports of primary carbon steel products”, Tab 8, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Imports of primary carbon and alloy steel products”, and Tab 9, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Real Steel Consumption”.

  215. Exhibit 37: Tab 3, The Department of Trade and Industry, South Africa, “South African Trade Statistics”.

  216. Exhibit 23: Tab 44, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “South African Manufacturers of Primary Steel Products”.

  217. Exhibit 23: Tab 26, Mittal Steel South Africa, Extracts from website http://www.iscor.co.za/.

  218. Exhibit 37: Tab 8, Highveld Steel and Vanadium Corporation Limited, “Highveld Steel and Vanadium Corporation Ltd. - Annual Report 2006”.

  219. Exhibit 23: Tab 5, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Steel Cycle”.

  220. Exhibit 56: Tab 14, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, “Primary steel industry development in South Africa”, May 17, 2007, Exhibit 23: Tab 27, Mittal Steel South Africa, “Mittal Steel South Africa 2006 Annual Report” & “Audited group annual financial results: December 2006”, and Exhibit 22: Tab 1, Metal Bulletin Research: Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, “South Africa’s flat product consumption surges”.

  221. Exhibit 23: Tab 19, South African Iron and Steel Institute, “Steelnews Issue 35”.

  222. Exhibit 23: Tab 2, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Steel statistics – Concise overview”.

  223. Exhibit 23: Tab 6, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Local sales of primary carbon steel products”.

  224. Exhibit 23: Tab 2, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Steel statistics – Concise overview” and Tab 24,
    South African Iron and Steel Institute, “Steelnews Issue 29”.

  225. Exhibit 23: Tab 14, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Exports of primary steel products”.

  226. Exhibit 23: Tab 27, Mittal Steel South Africa, Extracts from “Mittal Steel South Africa 2006 Annual Report” & “Audited group annual financial results: December 2006”, and Exhibit 37: Tab 8, Highveld Steel and Vanadium Corporation Limited, Extracts “Highveld Steel and Vanadium Corporation Ltd. - Annual Report 2006” and Exhibit 23: Tab 14, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Exports of primary steel products”.

  227. Exhibit 23: Tab 2, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Steel statistics – Concise overview”, and Tab 24, South African Iron and Steel Institute, “Steelnews Issue 29”.

  228. Exhibit 19: Tab 13, Chinaview.cn (Xinhua News Agency), “China’s crude steel output continues to rise amid surplus fears”, and Tab 14, South East Asia Iron and Steel Institute, “South East Asia – China’s Prime Export Destination”.

  229. Exhibit 22: Tab 12, Steel Business Briefing, “Higher prices boost profits at Mittal South Africa”.

  230. Exhibit 23: Tab 2, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Steel statistics – Concise overview”.

  231. Exhibit 23: Tab 2, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Steel statistics – Concise overview”.

  232. Exhibit 41: CBSA – Updated enforcement information, Exhibit 6: CBSA - Copies of Ruling letters issued to exporters at the conclusion of the reinvestigation and Exhibit 61: Algoma Steel Inc. - Case brief, pg. 9.

  233. Exhibit 25: Tab 10, Steel On The Net, “MEPS steel product price levels across 2006 – 2007” and Exhibit 23: Tab 27, Mittal Steel South Africa, Extracts from “Mittal Steel South Africa 2006 Annual Report” & “Audited group annual financial results: December 2006”.

  234. Exhibit 37: Tab 3, The Department of Trade and Industry, South Africa, “South African Trade Statistics”.

  235. Exhibit 37: Tab 3, The Department of Trade and Industry, South Africa, “South African Trade Statistics”.

  236. Exhibit 59: Algoma Steel Inc. – Supplemental documents, Tab 3, Steel Plate Quarterly, “World Capacity Review: Reversing Mills” and Exhibit 47: CBSA - Revised Canadian import statistics for the period of review (Non-confidential version)

  237. Exhibit 23: Tab 27, Mittal Steel South Africa, “Mittal Steel South Africa 2006 Annual Report” & “Audited group annual financial results: December 2006” and Exhibit 37: Tab 8, Highveld Steel and Vanadium Corporation Limited, Extracts from website “Highveld Steel and Vanadium Corporation Ltd. - Annual Report 2006”.

  238. Exhibit 24: Tab 9, Metal Bulletin Research – Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, May 2007.

  239. Exhibit 58: Algoma Steel Inc. – Supplemental documents, Tab 3, Steel Plate Quarterly, “Actual forecast and transaction prices for A 36 or equivalent plate, 1994-2011”.

  240. Exhibit 56: Tab 14, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, “Primary steel industry development in South Africa”, May 17, 2007.

  241. Exhibit 37: Tab 8, Highveld Steel and Vanadium Corporation Limited, Extracts from website “Interim results for the six months ended June 2006”.

  242. Exhibit 23: Tab 25, Engineering News Online (Creamer Media), “UK’s Blackstar may list Kunlungile Metals after takeover”.

  243. Exhibit 23: Tab 2, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Steel statistics – Concise overview”.

  244. Exhibit 23: Tab 12, South African Iron & Steel Institute, “Stock of primary steel products on hand”.

  245. Exhibit 56: Tab 3, South African Trade Measures Findings and Exhibit 45: Trade measures relating to steel products as imposed by other WTO Members.

  246. Exhibit 24: Tab 2, World Steel Dynamics, Extracts from “Global Steel Export Pricing Forecast to 2015”, June 2006.

  247. Exhibit 37: Tab 7, Mittal Steel, Extracts from the company website, Exhibit 23: Tab 26, Mittal Steel South Africa, Extracts from website http://www.iscor.co.za/.

  248. Exhibit: 46 CBSA - Revised Canadian import statistics for the period of review and Exhibit: 48 CBSA - Apparent Canadian market statistics.

  249. Exhibit: 46 CBSA - Revised Canadian import statistics for the period of review and Exhibit: 48 CBSA - Apparent Canadian market statistics.


Date Modified: 2007-09-07

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